White Sox vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, July 21

Sean Treppedi | Jul 21, 2025

Shane Baz has plenty of momentum to hit his strikeout prop on Monday against the White Sox. / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

The Chicago White Sox enter this matchup riding the high of a surprising road sweep in Pittsburgh, where they exploded for 27 runs over three games despite sitting at the bottom of the AL Central. 

They'll send out Sean Burke (4-8, 4.36 ERA), who’s been uneven in July and is still seeking consistency over his last few outings. 

Tampa Bay dropped the final game of its series against Baltimore and missed a chance to gain ground in the AL Wild Card race, leaving them 1.5 games back of the final spot. 

Shane Baz (8-5, 4.17 ERA) gets the nod for the Rays after a tough-luck loss to Boston in which he allowed just one run over 6.1 innings.

Let’s break it down below.

White Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• White Sox +1.5 (-110)
• Rays -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• White Sox (+188)
• Rays (-225)

Total

• Over 9 (-102)
• Under 9 (-120)

White Sox vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

• White Sox: Sean Burke (4-8, 4.36 ERA)
• Rays: Shane Baz (8-5, 4.17 ERA)

White Sox vs. Rays How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 21, 2025
• Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
• Venue: Steinbrenner Field
• How to Watch (TV): FDSN Sun, CHSN
• White Sox Record: 35-65
• Rays Record: 52-48

White Sox vs. Rays Prop Bet

• Shane Baz Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-152 at FanDuel)

The young right-hander has looked sharp of late, recording four straight quality starts while striking out at least six in three of those outings.

Chicago, despite its brief offensive surge in Pittsburgh (for what that’s worth), is still one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the majors, whiffing 720 times this year — second-most in baseball. Baz’s 1.25 WHIP and recent command improvements give him the edge against a team that simply doesn’t make consistent contact.

Even if he doesn’t go deep into the game, Baz’s swing-and-miss stuff should carve through the lower third of Chicago’s order, where outs come quickly and Ks are plentiful. Tampa’s bullpen is fresh and Baz won’t be asked to overextend, but six punchouts is a reasonable ask against such a soft matchup. 

White Sox vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

This line feels high. Burke may not be a household name, but he’s held opponents to two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts and faces a Rays lineup that, while respectable, hasn’t been explosive lately.

Tampa has seen five of its last six games after a previous-day contest stay under the total, and that trend looks strong against Baz, who’s posted a 3.26 ERA over his last three starts and strung together four straight quality outings.

The White Sox, despite their weekend sweep in Pittsburgh, still average just 3.59 runs per game and remain second-to-last in both slugging percentage and strikeouts on the season. Tampa’s bullpen and defense have been reliable all year, ranking top three in WHIP, and they’re unlikely to allow many extra-base threats from a lineup led by Miguel Vargas and Mike Tauchman.

Even though the Rays rank No. 9 overall in runs per game overall, they’ve been underwhelming situationally, stranding 10 men in Sunday’s loss to Baltimore and failing to capitalize with runners in scoring position. 

Pick: Under 9.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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