Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Plus Money K Props for Paul Skenes and James Paxton)

Breaking down two props to bet for the MLB action on Monday, June 17, including a pick for Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Paul Skenes.

Jun 11, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports / Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

We've been on a roll with our plus-money props.

Let's see if we can keep it going with a pair of striekout props today that look like good value on Monday night.

MLB Best Bets for Monday, June 17

Paul Skenes over 8.5 strikeouts (+130) at DraftKings

It's Paul Skenes Day again!

Last week, we took the over for plus money on his 7.5 K prop, and we cashed. Skenes ended the day with eight strikeouts vs. the Cardinals, and he pitched into the seventh inning. Today's prop is even higher, and it's a lot harder to get to nine strikeouts than eight, but here are a few reasons why we are going for it.

First, true MLB fans are obligated to always take the over when Paul Skenes pitches.  

I'm kidding (sort of).

Second, the Reds have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league when facing right-handed pitching (26.3%),  and this is the first time they will have seen Skenes. The advantage goes to the pitcher in that scenario. 

Remember: Skenes' fastball is averaging more than 99 mph. 

Third, Skenes is striking batters out at a 34.5% clip, for an average of 12.42 batters per nine innings.  If Skenes can make it into the seventh again, he has an excellent chance to exceed this prop.   

Skenes has exceeded this prop in only two of six starts; however, he did it vs. the Tigers and the Cubs, who have the sixth and seventh highest K-rates vs. right-handed pitching, respectively. The Reds are even more strikeout-prone, as mentioned above. 

For a juicy +130 payout, I'm willing to pull a ticket. 

James Paxton under 3.5 strikeouts (+125) at DraftKings

Paxton has been punching out batters at a mere 5.28 per nine innings this season. 

No, that is not a typo. 

The Rockies hit better and strike out less against left-handed pitchers and at home. Paxton has not logged more than three strikeouts since May 24th, and he's only reached four or more strikeouts in five of 12 starts this season.  

Paxton's FIP is 5.27, and things could get away from him at Coors. I don't see him going deep into this game, so for plus money, I'll bet on the under. 

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