Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 23

Sean Treppedi | Jul 23, 2025

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has the splits against Max Fried to drive in offense on Wednesday. / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Ben Rice broke a ninth-inning tie with a solo home run as the Yankees outlasted the Blue Jays 5-4 on Tuesday night, powered by a trio of homers that also included blasts from Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cody Bellinger.

Max Fried (11-3, 2.43 ERA) gets the nod for New York looking to rebound from a rocky outing in Chicago, where he allowed four runs in just three innings and struggled with command. 

Chris Bassitt (10-4, 3.89 ERA) counters for the Blue Jays riding a wave of strong performances, including a 6.1-inning shutout gem against the Giants last Friday that extended his unbeaten stretch to three outings.

Here’s how we’re targeting prices for Wednesday’s game. 

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Yankees -1.5 (+116)
• Blue Jays +1.5 (-140)

Moneyline

• Yankees (-142)
• Blue Jays (+120)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-108)
• Under 8.5 (-112)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

• Yankees: Max Fried (11-3, 2.43 ERA)
• Blue Jays: Chris Bassitt (10-4, 3.89 ERA)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 23, 2025
• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Venue: Sportsnet, Prime Video
• How to Watch (TV): Rogers Centre
• Yankees Record: 56-45
• Blue Jays Record: 59-42

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prop Bet

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI (+170 at FanDuel)

Guerrero Jr. is heating up in July, posting a .284 average with runners in scoring position and lifting his hard-hit rate above 50%. He’s also slugging .540 against left-handed pitching this season, and Fried’s recent command issues — six walks and a 6.43 ERA over his last three starts — set the stage for traffic on the bases early. With George Springer and Bo Bichette both swinging well ahead of him, Guerrero should get RBI chances with men on base. 

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

While Fried’s full-season numbers are still elite and he’s a Cy Young candidate, the surface is cracking — his July ERA sits at 6.43 with a 5.33 xFIP, and his command metrics have dipped notably via FanGraphs, suggesting mechanical or fatigue-related issues.

Meanwhile, Toronto quietly owns one of MLB’s most productive lineups against left-handed pitching, with a top-10 wRC+ in the split and several right-handed bats (Springer, Bichette, Guerrero) that can punish spin-heavy southpaws like Fried. 

Bassitt has also completely owned the Yankees in his career (4-1, 2.03 ERA in 7 starts), and he has spectacular recent form: 0.68 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his last three outings. Toronto has won nine straight as an underdog and continues to thrive at Rogers Centre, where they’re 36-17 on the season. The Blue Jays are simpy underpriced and poised to cash the moneyline.

Pick: Blue Jays (-120 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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