Bonds & Clemens collectors have hope with new Hall of Fame ballot

The National Baseball Hall of Fame has announced the list of players to be considered next month for election by its Contemporary Baseball Era Committee. Per the Hall, ballot eligibility is limited to "players whose most significant career impact was realized since 1980" but no longer eligible for selection by the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). In other words, old but not too old. While the list includes eight players, there are two in particular who will no doubt stoke the most controversy.

Dale Murphy in 1982 — July 1982; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; FILE PHOTO; Atlanta Braves first baseman Dale Murphy (3) in action against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Three Rivers Stadium during the 1982 season. | Malcolm Emmons-Imagn Images

The 2025 Contemporary Era Ballot

Here are the eight players on the ballot, listed alphabetically, though coincidentally the first two listed are also the most polarizing among fans and historians.

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Carlos Delgado
Jeff Kent
Don Mattingly
Dale Murphy
Gary Sheffield
Fernando Valenzuela

Don Mattingly batting against the Royals in 1992 — Jun 25, 1992; Kansas City, MO, USA; FILE PHOTO; New York Yankees first baseman Don Mattingly in action against the Kansas City Royals at Royals Stadium. | RVR Photos-Imagn Images

As always, Cooperstown consideration fuels speculation in the Hobby around the baseball cards most likely to experience a "Hall of Fame bump." Certainly, collectors have already seen the prices of Dave Parker and Dick Allen rookie cards soar in the wake of last year's "Classic Baseball Era" election. However, this year's ballot is different from all previous ones in a way that may alter the collecting landscape permanently.

Dave Parker in 2024 — May 25, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates former right fielder and 1978 MVP Dave Parker looks on during a ceremony honoring the 1979 World Series team before the Pirates host the Atlanta Braves at PNC Park. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

RELATED: The Five Must-Have Cards of Dave Parker

Permanent Bans for Bonds, Clemens?

The reason for this is a new rule adopted by the Hall of Fame governing the results of all era committee ballots beginning with the newly released 2025 one. Per the Hall's published rules:

"Beginning in 2025, any candidate who appears on a ballot and does not receive votes from at least five of the 16 voters will not be eligible to be placed on the ballot within the Era Committee's following three-year cycle. Additionally, beginning in 2025, any candidate that does not receive at least five of 16 votes in multiple appearances on Era Committee ballots will not be eligible for future ballot consideration."

Dave Roberts and Barry Bonds in 2025 — Jul 12, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts (left) and San Francisco Giants former left fielder Barry Bonds (right) laugh in the dugout before the game at Oracle Park. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

RELATED: The Essential Cards of Barry Bonds

In other words, where unsuccessful candidates in years past always had hope of getting in eventually, there is now what amounts to a "death penalty" for candidates who fail to secure at least a certain threshold of votes. Were this threshold a single vote, the rule might not seem so dire. However, the threshold is five votes, which is anything but a cakewalk. As an example, here are the voting totals the last time this same committee met, which was in 2023.

16 - Fred McGriff (elected to HOF)
8 - Don Mattingly
7 - Curt Schilling
6 - Dale Murphy
Less than 4 - Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro

As the 2023 totals suggest, voters on these special era committees are not particularly excited to vote for players linked to performing enhancing drugs. And with committee membership hand-picked by the Hall and largely similar from one election to the next, it seems unlikely that such sentiment will reverse itself any time soon. The logical conclusion? Fans and collectors hoping Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and others will get their due eventually are instead faced with the reality that two bad ballots now means no forever. In other words, that 1987 Barry Bonds PSA 10 card they imagined might someday be a Hall of Fame rookie card just won't be. Ever. Ditto for the Rocket, whether collectors were hoping for a boost to his elusive 1984 Fleer Update pre-rookie or his multiple rookie cards from 1985.

Dwight Gooden and Roger Clemens in September 1986 — The New York Mets Dwight Gooden and Boston Red Sox Roger Clemens prior to a charity game against the Boston Red Sox to benefit the Jimmy Fund at Fenway Park in Boston Sept. 4, 1986. The Mets won the game 7-3. The two teams would meet later the following month in the World Series which the Mets won in a dramatic 7-game series. | Frank Becerra Jr./The Journal News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

RELATED: The Impossible Baseball Cards of the 1980s

Gary Sheffield batting against the White Sox — Could Gary Sheffield be another casualty of the Hall's new voting rules? | RVR Photos-Imagn Images

To be sure, the 2025 election itself, no matter the outcome, won't torpedo the Hall hopes of Barry and the Rocket. Per the new rule, it will take two elections to kill of a candidate permanently. Still, if past is prologue, look for the 2025 election to put them on life support and the very next election to pull the plug entirely. If indeed this is the case, the impact on their baseball cards will be both significant and permanent.