The Impact of The NFL Draft on Football Cards
The NFL Draft is one of the biggest days on the sports calendar, and one of the biggest days in The Hobby. For collectors who gravitate toward prospecting and potential, where top college stars land can be a big piece to the puzzle. How does the rookie fit with an organization, the current team, the coaching staff and scheme? Who is already on the roster who may stand in the way of significant playing time from the jump? Who has been put in the best situation to succeed?
To be sure, there are times when talent trumps any or all of these concerns, but regardless, we have evidence that the NFL Draft can send a charge through the card market of these prospects before their NFL cards are released. Partly, this can be attributed to collectors deciding who stands to do well following the draft, but also, it's a natural result of the eyeballs and attention that come with finally making the official jump to the NFL, American's most popular sports league.
Obviously, a key to this analysis is that the prospect in question has quality non-NFL cards to chase. Luckily, it often lines up that big-time NFL prospects are also stars at the collegiate level and will have any number of cards to acquire.
Let's take a look at some recent examples of card market movement on the heels of the draft, as the NFL prepares to welcome the likes of Cam Ward, Travis Hunter, Ahston Jeanty, and Shadeur Sanders to the fold.
Caleb Williams, QB Chicago Bears
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Last year's top overall draft pick is a natural place to start. Last year's first-round took place on April 25th. The week previous, Card Ladder lists 1,042 Caleb Williams sales. Beginning on Draft Day, there are 3,344 sales in the week following. While the quantity is a massive increase, the top-end sales follow the same trajectory. There were 16 four-figure sales the week following the draft, only 2 in the week leading up to the draft. From January 1 2024 until the day before the draft, Card Ladder lists 68 such sales. The top sale came on Draft Day, at $7,250 for a Caleb Williams 2023 Flawless Star Swatch Signature /3.
Then there's Williams' Topps Now draft card. The release hit a print run of almost 25,000. To date, the 1/1 version, inscribed with 'first card as a pro' remains the top Caleb Williams sale of all-time at $37,200. In second is a Gold Vinyl version of his 2024/25 Panini Prizm /5, almost ten grand behind, at $26,000.
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
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The third pick from North Carolina had a Bowman release in 2023, and can be used as a gauge for how the draft responded to the news that he had inherited the role as New England quarterback, a position made famous by Tom Brady. In the week from last year's draft, Card Ladder lists 1,765 Drake Maye sales. The week previous? 277. 3 four-figure sales came in the week after selection. The top sales the week previous were for Dual Autograph cards featuring Maye with Caleb Williams. Neither cracked $1,000.
The top sale in the week following the draft was $2,250 for this 1st Bowman Auto 1/1, for $2,250. A PSA 10 Auto /25 sold for $1,350 on Draft night, and remains the highest sale of that card on Card Ladder, at writing. The card sold three time from May - December of last year, ranging from $499 - $1,030.
JJ McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
McCarthy's Bowman cards benefited from his leading the University of Michigan to a national championship months before the draft. However, the phenomenon still holds. 1,414 McCarthy sales in the week from Draft Day. 345 the week previous. For comparison, there were only 797 sales the week following his national championship title win over Washington.
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Interestingly, the top five McCarthy Bowman sales all came well before Draft Day, including a top sale of $5,000 on March 9, 2024 for a 1st Bowman Auto /5. Eight of the nine biggest McCarthy sales came before the draft. The biggest sale in the week post-draft was $2,500.
Michael Terry is a writer based in Brooklyn. He specializes in sports, culture, and collecting. His work has appeared at Topps RIPPED, ESPN, Grantland, Vice Sports, and more.