What Jayson Tatum's Injury Could Mean for his Card Market
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Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics received expected but still-devastating news following the superstar's injury in Monday's Game 4 loss to the New York Knicks. A ruptured achilles has been repaired by surgery, but Tatum is expected to need a long recovery process that could see him missing the entirety of next season. As Tatum recovers and the Celtics are forced to reimagine their future, what could this mean for his cards and collectors of the six-time All-Star?
Jayson Tatum today underwent successful surgery to repair a ruptured right Achilles tendon. No timetable is currently available for his return, but he is expected to make a full recovery. Further updates will be provided when appropriate. pic.twitter.com/TTXziFtMQB
— Boston Celtics (@celtics) May 13, 2025
To be sure, a serious injury like the one Tatum suffered on Monday can make collectors concerned about the long-term prospects of a player. The situation is further compounded when it comes to Tatum, because he is still in the early prime of what will be a Hall-of-Fame career. Much of what impressed fans and collectors of Tatum through the years was not simply his accomplishments, though they are many, but also his historic trajectory. Since entering the league, Tatum ranks 1st in playoff wins and points, 2nd in playoff three-pointers, rebounds, and steals, as well as 5th in assists, and 6th in blocks. He's got a title under his belt and appeared in five of his first seven seasons. He's about to be named to his fourth straight All-NBA First Team.
Few players in league history have a resume by 27 comparable to the one that Tatum put together. It looked as though the Celtics' championship window was wide open, and there was every chance Tatum would grab another ring this season, and maybe a first NBA Finals MVP. For all Tatum had already accomplished, it felt like it was only the beginning.
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Tatum currently has the 7th-highest market cap, per Card Ladder, among active players. Interestingly he trails Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards, two younger stars with less on the resume (though SGA is likely soon-to-be-MVP), but perhaps a bigger shine on their potential. Outside of those two, only LeBron James, Steph Curry, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokoumpo rank ahead of the Celtics superstar in this metric.
Interestingly, Tatum's top-end cards have never hit the heights of those above him. While LeBron and Steph and Giannis have multiple MVP's, perhaps the best comparison for Tatum is that of Luka Doncic. The players have pretty similar resumes when it comes to All-Star appearances and All-NBA nods. Tatum has had more team success but Doncic gaudier numbers. That said, in The Hobby, Doncic's star power has always been far more substantial than Tatum's. In a way this echoes the NBA media and fan ecosystem, which has not seemed to elevate Tatum to the status that his accomplishments may warrant.
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For comparison, Tatum's Panini Rookie Patch Auto /10 sold for $192,000 on May 21 2022. Luka's fetched over $650,000 on the same day. While Card Ladder does not list any sales of Tatum's 1/1 Panini RC Logoman 1/1, it's hard to imagine it selling for anything close to the $3.12 million Doncic's sold for most recently in November of 2022.
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In terms of the impact of his injury, another comparison is that of Kevin Durant, who himself torn an achilles in Game 5 of the 2019 NBA Finals. In the two months following Durant's surgery, his cards saw a rate of growth of only -2.02%. That number dropped to -7.87% at the six month mark.
However, from December 12 2019, until his preseason return in December of 2020, Durant's cards recovered, registering a rate of growth of +169.43%. While Durant was an MVP and two-time NBA Champion and NBA Finals MVP, this could be an encouraging sign for Tatum collectors. Moreover, Durant was 30 at the time of his injury, Tatum is only 27. It will be interesting to see how the card market responds in this first week following the injury, but Durant's market recovery is an intriguing case study for collectors to consider.
Durant is also perhaps a cautionary tale. While the legend has played extremely well in the years following his achilles injury, he has not reached the same heights. He has finished top-10 in MVP voting only twice since then, and has never been back to the Conference Finals. In the past two years, Card Ladder registers a rate of growth of -45.68%.
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A PSA 10 2017 Panini Prizm Silver Prizm Tatum RC sold for $700 following the injury, on May 13. A day before he got hurt, the same card sold for $745. The day before that, $799. The card has sold for as much as $4,150. In terms of recent sales, the PSA 10 has sold 18 times, per Card Ladder, since April 1, ranging from $687 - $1,250. The post-injury sale is the second-lowest in that timeframe.
Beyond the Durant comp, one consideration in Tatum's favor may just be the aftermath of the injury itself. For a long time now, Tatum fans (and at times Tatum himself) have insisted that the Celtics star, who may lack the flash of some of his superstar peers, is all-too-criticized, and not often enough given his flowers. Yet, the injury seems to have actually shifted the narrative some. Testimonials of Tatum's longevity and the brilliant start to his young career have poured out from all corners of the NBA landscape. While it may be unfortunate that it took a potentially career-altering injury for this to come, it may just help soften the blow to the Tatum card market.
Post-surgery, Tatum now begins his attempt at one of American sports fans' favorite possibilities: The Comeback Story. Could this too help Tatum's cards in the long term? It remains to be seen, and certainly the league, its fans, and collectors in The Hobby are all hoping for a full recovery, and perhaps, a return to greatness could rise his star higher than ever before.
Michael Terry is a writer based in Brooklyn. He specializes in sports, culture, and collecting. His work has appeared at Topps RIPPED, ESPN, Grantland, Vice Sports, and more.
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