College Football Playoff and Bowl Projections After Week 12: Is Alabama Top SEC Team?

If the Crimson Tide win the conference championship with two losses, where the selection committee ranks them will be notable against their league foes.

Alabama offensive lineman Kam Dewberry and running back Daniel Hill celebrates after scoring a touchdown. / Gary Cosby-Imagn Images

The ripple effects of Oklahoma’s win at Alabama on Saturday not only likely handed over a fifth bid to the SEC, but it massively shook up bowl options for nearly every league in the process, too. 

It also poses quite the quandary for the selection committee with regard to where it might rank teams should, as Sports Illustrated now projects, Alabama wins the SEC with two losses. We’ll get a better read on the Crimson Tide on Tuesday to see just how far they drop in the latest set of rankings, but it’s important to keep in mind they still have a trip to Atlanta for the SEC title game firmly in their grasp as long as they win the Iron Bowl. Strange things happen in that rivalry, but the Tigers have an interim coaching staff and serious issues at quarterback, so we’ll chalk that up as a win until another prayer gets answered at Jordan-Hare Stadium. That then pits the Tide against Texas A&M should the Aggies complete the regular season without a loss, which is still quite a winnable game for Kalen DeBoer’s team based on what we saw in that wild first half against South Carolina.

If Alabama wins out and emerges as SEC champion, where would that put it in the rankings though? Right now it’s a tough debate with one-loss Mississippi, which suffered its only blemish on the road against a team that likely will be no lower than No. 3 on Selection Sunday. You can make the case that the Tide could be the No. 6 seed, but for now they can rest easy one spot lower than that with a juicy home game against Notre Dame. The Irish are set to be the last at-large team in the field once they wrap up their 10–2 campaign and would get placed just ahead of a new name getting penciled in as the ACC champion: SMU. The Mustangs have had an up-and-down season but still have a great path to make it to Charlotte and perhaps exorcize some of their demons from last year’s walk-off in the conference title game by beating Virginia to earn the automatic bid back to the playoff. 

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Safe to say ESPN and TNT wouldn’t mind some of those first-round matchups given some of the name brands involved, from Oklahoma going to Autzen Stadium to play Oregon or a potentially all-Texas quadrant of the bracket with North Texas traveling to their head coach’s alma mater and the winner meeting Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. They say everything is bigger in the Lone Star State and the bragging rights certainly would be for some fan base. 

Finally, the rest of the bowls also get plenty of fun matchups as a result of a number of dominoes. The ACC naturally has to deal with a team like Miami missing out on the CFP but the Canes do land in a compelling Gator Bowl against Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt. Clemson and Florida State are now both projected to at least go 6–6 so they find some new bowl destinations too (the Military and Gasparilla bowls, respectively). There’s also the matter of plenty of other big-time helmet games like Michigan-Texas all but certain to wind being the Citrus Bowl even if the preseason No. 1 Longhorns lose four games this season or Nebraska meeting Tennessee to rekindle some yesteryear nostalgia in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

With all that in mind, here is how SI sees the playoff and all of 35 bowl games coming together to form the postseason picture in 2025–26 after Week 11.

College Football Playoff Projected Rankings After Week 12

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Georgia
4. Texas A&M 
5. Texas Tech
6. Mississippi
7. Alabama 
8. Oregon 
9. Oklahoma 
10. Notre Dame
11. SMU
12. North Texas

First Round

• No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon
• No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Alabama
• No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Mississippi
• No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas Tech

Quarterfinals

• Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Texas A&M vs. winner of No. 12 North Texas vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
• Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Georgia vs. winner of No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Mississippi
• Orange Bowl: No. 2 Indiana vs. winner of No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Alabama
• Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Oregon

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Bowl Projections After Week 12

Bowl	Date	Matchup
L.A. Bowl	Dec. 13	Washington vs. San Diego State
Salute to Veterans Bowl	Dec. 16	Troy vs. Central Michigan
Cure Bowl	Dec. 17	Kennesaw State vs. James Madison
68 Ventures Bowl	Dec. 17	Old Dominion vs. UNLV
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Dec. 19	Coastal Carolina vs. Missouri State
Gasparilla Bowl	Dec. 19	Florida State vs. East Carolina
Potato Bowl	Dec. 22	Ohio vs. Boise State
Boca Raton Bowl	Dec. 23	FIU vs. Arkansas State
New Orleans Bowl	Dec. 23	Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky
Frisco Bowl	Dec. 23	Baylor vs. Texas State
Hawai‘i Bowl	Dec. 24	Navy vs. Hawai‘i
Sports Bowl	Dec. 26	Toledo vs. Marshall
Rate Bowl	Dec. 26	Minnesota vs. Kansas State
First Responder Bowl	Dec. 26	Cal vs. Memphis
Military Bowl	Dec. 27	Clemson vs. USF
Pinstripe Bowl	Dec. 27	Northwestern vs. Duke
Fenway Bowl	Dec. 27	Wake Forest vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl	Dec. 27	BYU vs. Virginia
Arizona Bowl	Dec. 27	Fresno State vs. Western Michigan
New Mexico Bowl	Dec. 27	New Mexico vs. UTSA
Gator Bowl	Dec. 27	Vanderbilt vs. Miami
Texas Bowl	Dec. 27	Iowa State vs. Washington State
Birmingham Bowl	Dec. 29	NC State vs. Kansas
Independence Bowl	Dec. 30	TCU vs. Jacksonville State
Music City Bowl	Dec. 30	Illinois vs. LSU
Alamo Bowl	Dec. 30	Houston vs. USC
ReliaQuest Bowl	Dec. 31	Nebraska vs. Tennessee
Sun Bowl	Dec. 31	Arizona vs. Georgia Tech
Citrus Bowl	Dec. 31	Michigan vs. Texas
Vegas Bowl	Dec. 31	Iowa vs. Arizona State
Armed Forces Bowl	Jan. 2	Army vs. Utah State
Liberty Bowl	Jan. 2	Cincinnati vs. UConn
Mayo Bowl	Jan. 2	Missouri vs. Louisville
Holiday Bowl	Jan. 2	Utah vs. Pitt
TBD/Bahamas Bowl	TBD	Louisiana Tech vs. Miami (Ohio)

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