Alabama Basketball Newcomer Breakdown: Aaron Estrada
This is the first in a multi-part series where BamaCentral's Blake Byler will crunch the numbers and break down the film to give you everything you need to know about each of Alabama basketball's newcomers.
High-powered backcourts have become synonymous with the Nate Oats era of Alabama basketball, with names such as Kira Lewis, John Petty, Jaden Shackelford, JD Davison, Jahvon Quinerly and many more having graced the Coleman Coliseum hardwood in recent years.
Earlier this offseason, the Crimson Tide landed a commitment from Hofstra transfer Aaron Estrada, who looks to be next up in the line of dynamic guards to come through Tuscaloosa.
Estrada, originally hailing from Woodbury, New Jersey, began his career at in-state St. Peter's where he started half of his games as a freshman. He then spent a season playing for Oregon and seeing limited playing time, before spending the last two years in New York leading the Hofstra Pride of the Colonial Athletic Association.
While at Hofstra, Estrada became one of the most consistent scorers in all of college basketball. He averaged 18 points per game as a junior in 2021-22, earning CAA Player of the Year honors. If that wasn't enough, he upped his scoring to 20.2 points per game last year in addition to 5.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game, and once again was awarded CAA Player of the Year.
Estrada has good size for a guard at 6-foot-4 and just over 200 pounds, and has a respectable wingspan to go along with it.
At Hofstra, Estrada primarily served as a ball-dominant guard, and will provide depth in that area for the Crimson Tide beside Mark Sears as well as play a lot of off-ball minutes.
Last season, Estrada shot a strong 37 percent from beyond the arc, which would have only trailed Brandon Miller on Alabama's team. He ranked in the 86th percentile with an effective field goal percentage of 59 on catch-and-shoot opportunities, which will be abundant in Alabama's heavily-spaced, high-shooting-volume offense.
In the above clip, Estrada shows some hustle by diving in with his teammate to aid in forcing a turnover, creating a transition opportunity. He trails the ball and relocates to the left wing, catching and shooting without hesitation in one fluid motion, and the shot is money.
Playing alongside guards such as Sears in an offense that's excellent at creating shots for everyone on the floor, Estrada is sure to get plenty of looks like this one all season.
But he can do more than just catch-and-shoot. Estrada is great at creating his own shot off the bounce, and he has an shifty and purposeful handle to help him get to his spots. Last season, Estrada ranked in the 69th percentile with a 53 percent effective field goal percentage off the dribble.
This is well demonstrated in the clip below, where Estrada uses an effective combination of dribble moves to create separation from his defender, and knocks down a difficult step-back look from beyond the arc.
Oats consistently gives his shooters the green light, so it would not be surprising to see Estrada have the same freedoms in Alabama's offense to create for himself, especially if his teammates are having a cold shooting night.
In addition to his shooting prowess, Estrada has shown to be an excellent finisher at the rim, boasting a 59 percent mark last season. The smooth left-hander has fantastic body control and pace to go along with his strength going downhill, and these traits create Estrada's craftiness around the rim.
In the first clip against Iona, Estrada beats his man baseline and uses a savvy hop step to get by the weak side big that comes over to help, resulting in a wide open layup.
The second clip against Cincinnati is a good old fashioned blow-by in isolation, but the key is the way Estrada uses his own body and strength to shield the ball from the defender on the way up to the rim.
He isn't an explosive above-the-rim player on the drive, and isn't near as elite with his right hand as he is with his left, but his strengths as a finisher make for an intriguing addition in an offense that will play lots of five-out and have plenty of space for driving lanes.
One of the most underrated aspects of Estrada's game, perhaps due to his high-volume scoring the past two years, is his passing and playmaking ability.
Estrada was second on Hofstra's team last season in assists per game, and posted a 22 percent assist rate on the year. The following two clips showcase Estrada's passing ability in the two most common scenarios he'll encounter at Alabama: transition and pick-and-roll.
The transition clip is a textbook case of Estrada keeping his eyes up on a fast break and being able to find his rim-running big, which is a staple at Alabama as seen by Charles Bediako and Nick Pringle consistently sprinting rim-to-rim for open looks in transition last year.
In the second clip, Estrada receives a dribble handoff and an immediate screen from his big man, who rolls hard without a man covering him since Stony Brook hedged the screen. Estrada threads a pass over the rotating help defense, placed right where his teammate can grab it and lay it in.
The starting and bench rotations are still in question for the upcoming year, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Estrada initiate some of the offense with his playmaking ability and allow Sears to play off the ball.
Estrada is also a very effective mid-range shooter, which isn't typically seen by Alabama players. A common misconception is that Oats has effectively outlawed the mid-range shot in his offense, but reality shows that he encourages the shot in cases of efficient mid-range shooters such as Miller last season.
Below is Estrada's shot chart, courtesy of CBB Analytics, which shows how he is consistently above the Division-I average shooting percentage at nearly every mid-range spot on the floor.
While the offense is unquestionably elite, Alabama's best teams under Oats have been exceptional on the defensive end of the floor. Losing Jaden Bradley and Nimari Burnett to the transfer portal will hurt the perimeter defense, but Estrada is a capable defender in his own right.
He has active hands and quick instincts, shown by his 1.5 steals per game average last year. He may not be an All-SEC level defender, but he should be far from a negative on that end of the floor.
The final, and possibly most important thing that Estrada brings to the Crimson Tide is his experience. Alabama saw its dream season come to a close a year ago to one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, while fielding a team starting three freshmen.
Oats took notice of that, and has only brought in seniors to help bolster the 2023-24 squad. Estrada has played four seasons of college basketball already, and has started in 77 career games.
The rising redshirt senior's experience, offensive firepower and playmaking skills make him primed for a starting role in November as the Crimson Tide looks to bring home a third SEC title in four seasons.
See also:
