The 'Large Factor' That Could Determine Alabama's Outcome Against Texas A&M

The Aggies lead the country in offensive rebounds per game, but the Crimson Tide is among the best on both sides of the glass.

The Alabama Basketball Team listens in the huddle against South Dakota State at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, AL on Sunday, Dec 29, 2024. | Photo by Crimson Tide Photos / UA Athletics

Although it isn't March yet, many college basketball programs are getting hot with expectations of dancing in the time of Madness.

The SEC is filled with teams like this including No. 5 Alabama, who is on a seven-game win streak, and No. 10 Texas A&M, who has won its last nine contests. But one of these long streaks, both of which are within the seven longest active ones in the country, will end on Saturday evening in College Station, Texas.

“The game’s going to go a long ways to who’s going to be in the conversation for winning the league championship," Alabama head coach Nate Oats said during Friday's press conference. "There’s five teams that are 2-0 and we’re two of them...It’s gonna be a good game.

"They’re one of the toughest teams in the country year in and year out. [Texas A&M head coach] Buzz [Williams] does an unbelievable job of getting his guys to play hard. I think they’ve out-rebounded everybody but one—that’s kind of their calling card. But they’ve gotten more skilled throughout all the positions since last year.”

As Oats stated, the Aggies are tremendous on the offensive side of the glass. Texas A&M's 16.7 offensive rebounds per game is the most in the country and it's created a ton of second-chance points. These stat categories have almost always gone in the Aggies' favor and its helped determine the outcome of many of the 13-2 squad's games.

The same can be said for 13-2 Alabama, whose 14.5 offensive rebounds per game are good for 15th in the country. Crimson Tide forward Mouhamed Dioubate leads with 2.3 per game, but eight other Alabama players are hauling in at least 1.0 offensive boards. Oats explained that winning the offensive rebounding battle will be key toward determining the outcome, but he doesn't expect his team to necessarily dominate in that category like nearly every other game.

"I think it will be a large factor in this game," Oats said. "They're No. 1 in the country in offensive rebounding rate. I told our guys there's no chance we're getting 100 percent of our defensive rebounds, we don't even do that against teams that barely crash. We can't let them get 50 percent of them, but the ones that they do get, and they're going to get some because they send five guys a lot, we still have to guard out.

"We can't be so disappointed with ourselves that we just give up when we give [offensive rebounds] up. We've got to continue to guard. They don't get points for O-boards, they get points for second-chance points. When we do give up offensive rebounds, we've just got to guard it out. We've got to really guard."

Of course, rebounds are a two-way street––offensive and defensive. While the Aggies are on top of the mountain offensively, the same can't be said on the other end as Texas A&M's 25.4 defensive rebounding rate is 173rd in the country.

This is where the Crimson Tide can take advantage as Alabama's 30.3 defensive rebounds per game are third in the nation. Alabama forward Grant Nelson leads the team with 6.8 grabs off of the defensive glass and six other players are averaging at least two per contest.

Although it won't be easy, diminishing Texas A&M's chances of grabbing an offensive rebound will be perhaps the biggest key to winning this top-10 matchup in College Station.

"We’re gonna be in a dog fight down there, and we know it, Oats said.”

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