ESPN FPI predicts Big 12 football championship game winner, College Football Playoff field
The Arizona State football team is one victory away from a berth in the 12-team College Football Playoff.
But the predictive analytics models don't think the Sun Devils will get there.
Despite being 2.5-point favorites over Iowa State according to the oddsmakers, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) gives Arizona State a 45.1% chance to beat the Cyclones.
The FPI gives ASU a 45% chance to make the CFP, and a 2.2% chance to make the national championship game.
What Happens If Arizona State Wins?
If the Sun Devils beat the Cyclones on Saturday morning, they will receive an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff.
But ASU likely needs Boise State to lose to UNLV in the Mountain West Conference championship game in order to move into the top 12 and receive a first-round bye. If the Broncos lose to UNLV and SMU gets smoked by Clemson in the ACC championship game, the final CFP Rankings could look like this:
- Oregon (Big Ten champion)
- Texas (SEC champion)
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Penn State
- Georgia
- Indiana
- Alabama
- Miami
- Ole Miss
- Arizona State (Big 12 champion)
UNLV, the Mountain West champion, and Clemson, the ACC champion, would finish outside the top 12, but receive automatic bids to the CFP. That would bump Ole Miss and Miami from the 12-team field, and give Oregon, Texas, Arizona State and Clemson first-round byes.
What Happens If Arizona State Loses?
If the Sun Devils lose to Iowa State they have almost no shot of making the CFP.
Arizona State would end up in either the Alamo Bowl, Holiday Bowl or Las Vegas Bowl.
The best non-CFP bowl for the Sun Devils would be the Alamo Bowl, which paid out $8,252,740 last year. The Holiday Bowl paid out $6,532,700 last year and the Las Vegas Bowl paid out $2,900,000.
ESPN FPI Predictions For CFP Field
Here are the 12 teams the FPI thinks will make the College Football Playoff:
- Oregon (100% chance)
- Texas (100% chance)
- Notre Dame (100% chance)
- Ohio State (100% chance)
- Tennessee (100% chance)
- Indiana (100% chance)
- Georgia (99.9% chance)
- Penn State (99.6% chance)
- Alabama (86.9% chance)
- Boise State (68.8% chance)
- SMU (66.6% chance)
- Iowa State (55% chance)
That field would result in first-round byes for Oregon, Texas, Boise State and SMU.
The first-round matchups would be Notre Dame vs. Iowa State, Ohio State vs. Alabama, Tennessee vs. Penn State and Indiana vs. Georgia.
We'll see how it all plays out on Friday and Saturday. Boise State and UNLV get the party started on Friday night at 6 p.m. MST in the Mountain West Conference championship game. Arizona State and Iowa State play at 10 a.m. MST Saturday morning in the Big 12 championship.
More Arizona State & Big 12 Analysis
Ben Sherman has been covering the sports world for most of his journalism career, including 17 years with The Oregonian/OregonLive. One of his favorite memories was covering the 1999 Fiesta Bowl - the first BCS National Championship Game - at Sun Devil Stadium.