Quick Reality Check for Razorback Fans Before Season Opener

Time to let facts get in the way of what hearts want so desperately

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Sep 3, 2022 11:29 AM EDT
Original:
Sep 1, 2022

Hey Arkansas fan. Come over here for a second.

We need to have a serious talk.

I know you're all excited about last season. It was a great run.

It's nice to feel like people are starting to put a little respect on your name. However, it seems in the offseason, you managed to lose a little bit of perspective.

You're reading more into that nine-win season than you should and are definitely way out of bounds with expectations of 10+ wins this season.

I know this isn't what you want to hear, but just hear me out. I never address something so sensitive without solid evidence.

Let's take Exhibit No. 1 – the Mississippi State game. The Bulldogs should have won that game in Fayetteville last year.

You probably have a different memory of this game than how it really went down. Fandom will do that for you.

First off, winning required Mississippi St. to miss three field goals, including a 23-yard chip shot, while Cam Little had to make three field goals ranging from 45-51 yards. One of those missed field goals was a 40-yarder in the final two seconds of the game.

Arkansas was also losing with 24 seconds left.

The Bulldogs would have won the game after stopping the Razorbacks on fourth down on the Hogs' final drive had a defensive back not accidentally knocked Treylon Burks down.

No one was open on that play. Arkansas was going to lose had it not been for the penalty.

So what, you say. Sometimes you need a lot of breaks to go your way.

That's right, but that was a lot of breaks.

Now for an even bigger reality check. Let's take a look at who made the big plays in this game that Mississippi State handed to Arkansas.

As you watch the highlights below, count how many players are on this year's team who made a significant impact in this game. I'll wait.

Had a hard time did you? Grant Morgan, Trey Williams, John Ridgeway, Hayden Henry, Treylon Burks, Joe Foucha and a hand of others made 90% of the big plays, and none of them are here anymore.

What about that game against a bad LSU team that you won in overtime?

Should have lost that one too. Go back and watch the full game film.

Near the end, LSU breaks a big play that should have gone all the way. One lone Razorback barely manages to hold onto a tackle from behind that prevented what would have been the winning touchdown.

Go back to the second quarter. Tyrion Davis-Price breaks a 12-yard run that is about to give LSU a first down at the Arkansas 18-yard line, but inexplicably fumbles to Arkansas.

Even if the Tigers don't score a touchdown, Cade York is going to nail a field goal. I've watched that kid kick since high school and have never seen him miss inside 50 yards.

So let's put into perspective how the season would have looked had Mississippi State not missed a chip shot and two routine field goals, Arkansas not gotten a penalty called in its favor on fourth down, not been the beneficiary of a fumble after a long run, or failed to cling on from behind in the open field with nothing but empty grass in all directions.

Had so many things not bounced in the Razorbacks' favor, had so many players who are no longer on this team not made huge impact plays, Arkansas would have lost six out of seven games with the one win being Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

This would have been a six-win team clawing it out in the Birmingham Bowl. While so many of those guys came back for a chance to take on Penn State in Tampa, it's highly unlikely all would have stuck around to take on a salty Houston team.

Would you still be pounding your chest and declaring the Hogs and automatic 10-win team? Last year's team, with more talent on the roster, needed miracles to scrape out nine wins with a much easier schedule.

You're replacing Rice with a Cincinnati team that was in the playoffs last year, has been ranked for 45 consecutive weeks, and hasn't lost a season opener since 2011.

Their only losses in their past 25 games were a 24-21 loss to Georgia in the Peach Bowl and last year's loss to Alabama in the national semifinals.

I know there's a lot of SEC pride and bravado, but if Arkansas manages to somehow win this game, it will be a big upset. On paper, the Hogs should be a massive underdog.

Chances are, you just traded a win from last year for a loss this year, especially if Arkansas comes out like it did against Rice last season.

You're also trading out a game against a very bad Texas team that literally quit on the field in Razorback Stadium for a game in Utah against a very good BYU team.

This is another team that finished ahead of Arkansas last year in the rankings and is currently in the Top 25.

Going to Provo has bear trap written all over it. It's 50-50 at best that Arkansas comes back from the Rockies with a win.

Arkansas also has to go to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs return a ton of their most talented players while Arkansas doesn't.

It's unlikely Mike Leach's team will forget how to kick field goals this time around. Getting this win will most likely be on par with last year's win over Texas A&M as far as quality.

That being said, there's another great chance you're swapping a win from last year for a loss this year against Mississippi State, and with Texas A&M also.

If Arkansas is to replicate, not exceed, replicate last year's record performance, the Razorbacks will need to make it through the entire season with no injuries to either Bumper Pool or Drew Sanders, pray KJ Jefferson never gets a cold and certainly never hurt, and hope Foucha and Greg Brooks forgot everything they learned from two years of practicing against Jefferson and the Kendal Briles offense when LSU comes to town.

That's a lot to ask.

It is very possible Arkansas fans go from Sept. 18 until Oct. 28 without seeing the Hogs win. It's a brutal stretch that takes the weakest of breaks afterward for a pair of potential wins before LSU and Ole Miss hop onto the schedule.

Seven wins against this schedule with the talent remaining on this team would be a better coaching job by Pittman than the one last year. If this team were to somehow reach 10 wins, he would have to be Coach of the Year.

We're talking miracles, not expectations. I know it's hard to not see things as more progressed than they are in the exhilaration of last season's success, but it was only one winning season.

You don't go rushing into marriage because you had one good date. Lower those expectations to something more logical.

Trust me. Your expectations are going to determine whether you enjoy this season or spend all fall being angry for no good reason.

I've said my part. Head back to where you were and soak it all in.

If the Razorbacks lose to a team the facts say should beat them, you'll at least be able to process it the right way.

And if they win, you'll actually appreciate it for the upset that it is instead of having an unearned "Of course they should have beat them!" attitude about it.

I know it can be tough being an Arkansas football fan, so I wish you only the best of luck. You're going to need a lot of it if you've set the bar at 10 wins.