Who's on Coaching Hot Seat Heading into Week 1 of College Football

Three candidates reside in dumpster fires, but one is in most desirable perch in the country

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Aug 28, 2022 5:58 PM EDT
Original:
Aug 28, 2022

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – After roughly a decade of watching their coaches on a variety of "hot seat" lists, Arkansas fans get to bask in stability not felt since the early days of Houston Nutt.

Yes, that includes the Bobby Petrino years. While he won a lot of games, stability has never been a word used to describe any of his coaching tenures as he tended to have two feet out the door and both hands on a motorcycle steering wheel wherever he went.

So with Sam Pittman safely secure under the warm blanket of a 9-win season and a new contract, which high profile coaches might actually be on the hot seat?

Bryan Harsin, Auburn

It may seem like nothing more than college football tradition to put whoever the Tigers head coach is onto one of these lists, but this one feels way more ominous that your usual Auburn boosters dysfunction.

Maybe it's because Texas is coming into the conference and Auburn wants to reaffirm itself as the more unstable one in the bunch, but the insanity surrounding the departure of athletics director Allen Greene, along with a messy attempt to overthrow Harsin in the offseason just gives off that fire your coach midseason vibe.

No matter who comes in as athletics director, it's likely he or she will want to hire his or her own "guy," and if one thing is clear, it's that Harsin appears locked in as no one's "guy." The easiest political move would be to let the interim AD handle the firing while the new hire rides in as the shining knight to save the program by bringing in its next sacrificial lamb.

Firing a coach fans want gone might appear on its surface to be a good move by an incoming AD, but one only has to look back a few years ago to see that firing former coach Gus Malzahn did little to help Auburn fans look past what they saw as Greene's shortcomings to give him a chance despite enormous success within the athletics program.

Perhaps the only potential saving grace for Harsin is that, much like Texas over the past decade and change, the Auburn boosters and administration have done so much damage to the athletic program's image that dramatically fewer coaches are going to want the job. While chatter is never hard fact, the perception is the only reason Harsin wasn't fired in the offseason is no one else was willing to fill his shoes.

If the Tigers get off to a rough start, there will be tremendous pressure to bring the hammer. It's also reasonable to expect that it will take a long time to find a replacement, so the earlier the better.

Searching for 10 weeks during the season for someone who has nothing to lose has a much different look than searching for eight weeks after the Iron Bowl and will do much less damage to recruiting.

Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M

It's easy to feel the eye rolls rippling across time from the future, but this is one to keep an eye on.

Sure, Texas A&M has the most stable fan base, boosters and administration on this list by a mile. However, logic may soon take over and those in charge may determine that Fisher simply isn't built for this era of football.

Beginning in 1996, the Aggies have only had three seasons with fewer than four losses – 1998 (11-3), 2012 (11-2), and 2020 (9-1). If Fisher were to finish Year 5 having never had a double-digit win season in College Station, athletics director Ross Bjork might have no choice but to make a change.

Besides, Fisher would have no one to blame other than himself if the Aggies had to endure another 4+ loss season. He has the facilities, prime recruiting location, and perhaps the greatest financial backing, NIL or otherwise, of any university in the country.

Unlike the other coaches on this list, Fisher doesn't have the luxury of working in a situation only the most desperate of coaches would accept. There may not be a more desirable job in all of college athletics.

Crimson Tide fans might grumble that their job should be at the top of that list, but at Alabama, a coach not only has to follow "The Man," but it's not built quite as well for the NIL era. Plus, there's a slight sense of Auburn and Texas crazy in Tuscaloosa that would probably rear its head should a two-loss season find its way into the record books.

Texas A&M has long since passed Texas as the flagship program of the state when it comes to college football. It's where Texas's best who want to stay home go to play, especially if they have the slightest aspiration of going to the NFL.

Whomever takes the job will have every advantage needed to become the next Alabama without the up front pressure that comes each year by simply being Alabama.

Perhaps the biggest albatross around Fisher's neck that could land him in the unemployment line is his offense. The Aggies run an early 1990s system that is rather easy to game plan against.

Texas A&M has regularly ranked at or just above the bottom in the SEC when it comes to plays of 20+ yards and percentage of throws on first down. No scheme is more predictable than Jimbo Fisher's.

Sure, he won a national title at Florida State running it, but Jameis Winston isn't carrying him at Texas A&M, the world has evolved since then, and he didn't have to run through the SEC each week to get there.

The difference between Nick Saban and Fisher is that once the game passed Saban by offensively, he reluctantly leaned on his offensive coordinators to help his team evolve.

That isn't going to happen in College Station, which is why Fisher finds himself in a lobster pot that is slowly heating around him without realizing it.

Steve Sarkisian, Texas

If Texas fans were able to see to see the Longhorns for what they actually are, Sarkisian probably wouldn't be on this list, but the wack-job boosters and fan base are nothing if not consistently delusional.

Quick, name a Power 5 program that only has two 9+ win seasons since 2010. If you answered Vanderbilt, then you are correct.

The Commodores pulled off nine win seasons in 2012 and 2013.

However, if you answered Texas, you would also be right. Texas crossed that threshold in 2012 and 2018.

Considering how Vanderbilt looks in Year 2 under Clark Lea, it's possible Vanderbilt is the more likely of the two to cross that milestone a third time before Texas.

The Longhorns only beat three Power 5 teams last season while losing to Kansas. While Texas fans think they're going to win a national championship at the beginning of every year, the reality is Texas traditionally finishes without a winning record once the regular season concludes despite a relatively weak schedule.

When Texas finishes with its usual five or six wins at the end of the season, expect the boosters to be up in arms once again. The cycle where they convince themselves again that Nick Saban will come to Austin so they fire the current coach, only to realize literally no one wants to come into that nightmare of a situation will begin again.

Sark will need to do the impossible at Texas to avoid his fate. Reasonable progression over last year will not keep him off the chopping block.

If the Longhorns will fire their most successful coach in a decade over politics while literally having boosters tell African-American athletes they should go elsewhere, no thought will be given to casting Sarkisian onto the pile of coaches buried under a live oak along Dedman Drive.

Much like every coach who steps onto the Texas campus, Sarkisian's seat was on fire the second he took the job. However, anything short of 10 wins this season will put him at volcano level hot, and that isn't happening.

The coach who will lead Texas from the Big 12 basement into the SEC basement isn't on campus at this time. However, we might know that name by Christmas.

Scott Frost, Nebraska

This one is last because it's the least surprising. The real question here is whether Frost is still coaching the Cornhuskers as you are reading this.

It's possible that by Monday afternoon a deal has been negotiated to handle his exit. If not, a close game or loss against North Dakota could be the nail in the coffin.

Giving whoever would be named the interim coach the Georgia Southern game the get his bearings and adjust to running a team before Oklahoma comes to town would be the ideal situation if Frost's fate is already determined.