Baylor falls on ESPN's FPI despite win over Samford
The Baylor Bears just took down the Samford Bulldogs on Saturday by a score of 42-7, but it wasn't as convincing as it should've been. The offense had a few blunders, and while the defense held the Bulldogs to seven points, it really wasn't all that impressive.
Despite the win, Baylor dropped three spots on ESPN's Football Power Index. They went from No. 36 to No. 39, falling behind Arizona State, Memphis and Arizona, who all leapfrogged the Bears. But what is the FPI and how does it compile its rankings?
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.
Baylor's remaining odds
ESPN's FPI predicts the Bears will finish the season with a 6.9-5.1 record. They give the Bears a 3.9% chance to win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoffs. Baylor has just a 0.1% chance of making the National Championship and a 0% chance of winning it all, according to the FPI.
Odds for Baylor vs Arizona State
Baylor hosts Arizona State on Saturday night in McLane Stadium. It's their Big 12 opener, and a game the Bears must win to keep their CFP hopes alive. As of Monday, ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives the Bears a 53.7% chance to knock off the Sun Devils this weekend.
Sawyer Robertson and Baylor's offense need to be ready for a shootout. Sam Leavitt is one of the best QBs in the country, and Arizona State should have no problem moving the ball against Baylor's defense. There are going to be a lot of points scored, Robertson and Co. just need to make sure they stay one step ahead and aren't playing from behind.
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Luke is a writer for the Baylor Bears On SI. He's an LSU graduate and previously covered the Tigers for two years. He also covers the New Orleans Saints and Formula 1. Luke's passion for sports and storytelling led him to become a sports writer.