How the transfer portal is Dave Aranda's last resort and only hope at Baylor

Seeing the drama, soap opera, and mess that has been Lane Kiffin's departure from Ole Miss to LSU has hopefully given Baylor fans a reprieve of sorts from dealing with the calamity that has been in their hands

Also, with Kiffin, in true Lane Kiffin fashion, drawing out this transition as long as possible and eventually triggering the dominoes that are the coaching carousel, many Baylor fans may have been envious that the Bears weren't in the running to find their new coach. Charge that to the Bears having their own in-house situation to deal with.

Regardless, Dave Aranda will be Baylor's head football coach in 2026, but he will have his work cut off for him with replenishing the cupboards with talent, and reigniting optimism and faith from the fanbase around his tenure.

Less than a week into Baylor's offseason after failing to qualify for a bowl, and it's been a disastrous start. Following Texas' upset win over rival Texas A&M in Austin, 4-star edge rusher Jamarion Carlton, one of the highest-rated defensive commits in Baylor's history, flipped his commitment to the Longhorns. Less than 48 hours later, fellow Bell County native Jamarion Vincent followed his lead and de-committed, joining Michigan's 2026 class.

CBS national writer Shehan Jeyarajah noted just how big a blow these two flips were to Baylor's 2026 class. This negates any remnants of the positive momentum Baylor had about the future that Ryan Roberts of A to Z Sports referenced in the preseason

If I'm calculating right, Baylor's recruiting class has fallen from No. 27 to 52 in just about 72 hours. And if Jordan Clay flips as well, it will fall into the 60s. https://t.co/81J5rRv9oA
— Shehan Jeyarajah (@ShehanJeyarajah) November 30, 2025

Time for Aranda to step out of his comfort zone

With that, Aranda will have to step outside and emphasize the use of the transfer portal in a way that he hasn't yet. Now, the Bears did snag Sawyer Robertson from Mississippi State, and have had two portal classes in the top 50 the past two years, according to 247Sports, but last year's additions of edge rushers Matthew Fobbs-White and Emar'rion Winston, as well as Ohio State defensive back Calvin Simpson-Hunt, did nothing to elevate a defensive unit that has consistently struggled since Aranda's arrival in Waco.

The Bears will more than likely already be diving into the portal for a starting quarterback. But, with that 2026 recruiting class being one of the main drivers behind the Baylor administration's decision to extend Aranda's tenure, he needs to face the reality that he doesn't have the luxury to stay true to his roots of high-school-based recruiting. He needs to produce wins, and wins require talent that's able to immediately contribute. And in this age of college football, that happens via transfer portal acquisitions.

So, the Bears will go into 2026 with a level of roster overhaul that Aranda hasn't done yet. The results of that overhaul, and the pieces he adds, will be crucial for a coach already sitting on a smoldering-hot seat.

Time for Aranda to step out of his comfort zone

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