Three game predictions for Baylor vs Houston
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Baylor welcomes the Houston Cougars to Waco for the second time since Houston joined the Big 12 Conference. The first time Houston came to Waco, Houston came out on top, winning 25-24 in overtime. That was Willie Fritz's first season as head coach of the Cougars, and a win that the Houston team was very proud of. Of course, that was a low of many lows that season for the Bears, who finished that year 3-9. Fast forward to 2025, and the Cougars are 8-3, with impressive wins over Arizona St and Arizona, two teams that the Bears lost against.
Baylor, on the other hand, sits at 5-6, far below both fan expectations and Vegas oddsmakers. No one would have expected Baylor to be fighting for bowl eligibility against Houston; rather, many predicted that this would be the game that clinched their spot in the Big 12 Championship. Nonetheless, Baylor finds itself in the difficult position of trying to get motivated to play well in what will likely be an empty stadium, with a fanbase fed up with its head coach and a team that knows this could be its last game together.
If Baylor has any chance of winning tomorrow, they will have to be able to stop Connor Weigman and Dean Connors on the ground, allow Houston to make mistakes in the air, and limit turnovers on offense. If those three things go their way, Baylor will be in for a happy Senior Day and looking forward to a bowl game in December.
The offense can once again start fast
The offense had a quick start at Arizona last week, scoring 2 touchdowns on its first two drives. I believe Baylor can do this again. Jake Spavital is one of the best in the country at finding the gaps in opposition defenses and exposing them early. Once the opposition adjusts, the offense slows, but a quick controlling start is necessary for the Bears. The Houston defense is talented, but in the past three weeks has started slowly. They gave up 14 in the first quarter in the TCU game, went down early against UCF, and gave up 14 in the first quarter in their loss at home against West Virginia. A quick start is in the cards for the Bears, assuming this trend continues.
Defense struggles to stop the run AGAIN
The defense, on the other hand, has been defined by slow starts and giving up explosive plays, especially on the ground. Ever since the outlier game against UCF at home, the defense has gone back to its old ways. Big plays, bad on third down, and general missed tackles and alignments are what is expected from the Baylor defense. On the other hand, the Houston offense has been awesome on the ground. Quarterback Connor Weigman and running back Dean Conners have cemented themselves as a strong partnership on the ground. Houston totaled 230 yards rushing against TCU and 210 yards rushing against UCF.
The silver lining for Baylor is that Houston has had awful rushing days, for example, the 82 yards rushing against WVU. Baylor's rush defense has been abysmal the last two weeks, and Houston's rush attack has been improving since that awful game against West Virginia. Once again, I believe the trend continues, and the Bears' defense falters against the run. I wouldn't be surprised if Baylor gave up 4-5 yards per carry on Saturday.
This will be a one score game late
The spread of this game currently sits at 2.5 points in favor of Baylor. I believe that Vegas is right on the money with this prediction, and that it will come down to a field goal late, a late touchdown, or even overtime. Both these teams have spots of talent across both sides, but have had glaring weaknesses that have led to their downfall when it matters most. I believe Baylor will edge it out, they are just slightly more talented, and their will be a fight for a tight-knit senior class who have represented the University well.
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Jacob is a contributor for Baylor Bears On SI. A lifelong sports fan, he started writing game reactions and opinion pieces during Baylor football and basketball seasons, turning that hobby into a growing presence in sports media. He brings an authentic, fan-driven voice to his work and is excited to keep building his voice and breaking down the topics Baylor fans are talking about every day.
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