Skip to main content

'Unhappy Marriage' Could Lead Lincoln Riley Back to Big 12 Roots With Baylor

A student of the Big 12 who had success in the Big 12 and is also a Texas native; Baylor is looking for, well, him.
Sep 12, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after the game against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns atUnited Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Sep 12, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after the game against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns atUnited Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In this story:

The writing seems to be on the wall for Lincoln Riley at USC after their recent loss to Wisconsin. Big bold letters that read, "IT'S NOT WORKING." Southern California just doesn't seem to be the right fit for the Texas native.

Low fan attendance at home games, falling short of fan expectations, and losing key conference games; I get it, the comparisons to former head coach Dave Aranda are there. But USC just isn't the place for Lincoln Riley, who grew up in Texas, sat under the learning tree of Mike Leach, and got to effectively start on 2nd base at Oklahoma after Bob Stoops was fired, but has had success throughout his career. Although I didn't list Riley in my initial HC Hot Board, him becoming Baylor's next head coach isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility.

Baylor Needs Offense

Baylor Bears wide receiver Jadon Porter (3) reacts after a play against the TCU Horned Frogs at McLane Stadium
Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears wide receiver Jadon Porter (3) reacts after a play against the TCU Horned Frogs during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Riley is still that same student of the Air Raid system and product of the Big 12 and could inherit a deep receiving corps at Baylor. Even though Gavin Freeman is the highlight of the receiving unit, he's not the only good set of hands on the team. Speed has been a focus throughout the season for the Bears and Riley's offensive mindset could become a happy marriage. Baylor just spent the last 7 seasons with Dave Aranda's defensive focus, and broke even at 40-40. Riley at USC however, is 41-20.

Big Money Problems

Baylor Bears mascot cheers against the Arizona State Sun Devils
Oct 3, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Baylor Bears mascot cheers against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the first quarter at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anna Carrington-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Unlike Dave Aranda's buyout for the remaining time on his contract after being fired being $12 million, Lincoln Riley would be owed $57 million if the same were to happen to him. However, former Athletic Director Mike Bohn was the one who hired Riley. USC subsequently fired Bohn, and was able to obtain Jennifer Cohen's services away from Washington in order to lead the department. Riley’s contract stipulates that his buyout to leave USC would be waived.

Also, if Riley just left after the season, it would be waived. From what's been described as an "unhappy marriage" by USA Today's John Brice to Riley's own comments, there's a disconnect somewhere between the parties.

Three Ways Riley Leaving USC Would Work for Everyone

Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) throws a pass during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks
Oct 24, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) throws a pass during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

1. USC saves themselves from having to pay a massive buyout.
2. Lincoln Riley gets a high-resource fresh start in a smaller and less stressful media market
3. Baylor gets an elite offensive-minded coach

Big 12's Closer Away Games

The Baylor and Big 12 logos on an end zone pylon during a game between the Bears and the Kansas Jayhawks at McLane Stadium
Oct 15, 2016; Waco, TX, USA; The Baylor and Big 12 logos on an end zone pylon during a game between the Bears and the Kansas Jayhawks at McLane Stadium. Baylor won 49-7. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

USC in the Big Ten Conference made the Trojans more money, but has made the road schedule a logistical nightmare of airplanes and cross-country games. At a very conservative 3:1 ratio, every USC Big Ten road game travel distances of over 3,000 miles compared to Baylor's Big 12 road games that likely won't see them travel that far throughout the entire season.

Sign up for our Free Newsletter and follow us on X and Facebook for the latest news.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Published
Brad Teague
BRAD TEAGUE

Brad is a writer and contributes to the Baylor Bears on SI, with aspirations to share his own unique thoughts and perspectives with fans. Whether through the facts and figures of the past or the untold potential and triumphs of the future, sports have always been a large influence on Brad's storytelling and life overall. His inspiration to write began while watching sports when he first noticed the highs and lows of each game, each quarter, each play; there's a story in each of them worth telling, and he wanted to tell them.

Share on XFollow TheBradTeague