College Football ATS Picks for Every Top 25 Game in Week 9 (Bet Notre Dame to Cover Big Spread vs. Navy)

The college football season marches on and with each passing week, the College Football Playoff picture becomes more clear.

As I do each week, I'm going to give you my pick against the spread for every Week 9 game that involves a team currently ranked in the top 25 of the latest AP Poll.

Let's dive into it.

College Football Week 9 Spread Picks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

No. 5 Notre Dame vs. Navy Spread Pick

I'm going to trust Notre Dame to bounce back in a big way on Saturday. Their underlying metrics are still extremely strong, so I'm willing to look past their loss to BYU. They enter the week ranking second in net adjusted EPA per play and first in net success rate. Now they face a Navy team that's 73rd and 47th in those two metrics.

The No. 1 most important metric will be whether or not a defense can slow down the Navy rushing attack, and Notre Dame is up for the challenge, ranking 16th in opponent EPA per rush and fourth in defensive rush success rate.

I'll lay the big number on the Fighting Irish.

Pick: Notre Dame -30.5 (-110)

No. 25 Wisconsin vs. Iowa Spread Pick

Pick: Iowa -3.5 (-105)

No. 22 Arizona vs. No. 13 Texas Tech Spread Pick

Pick: Arizona +3.5 (-115)

No. 19 SMU vs. Syracuse Spread Pick

Pick: Syracuse +10 (-112)

Auburn vs. No. 12 Ole Miss Spread Pick

Pick: Auburn +13.5 (-112)

No. 17 Florida vs. No. 3 Georgia Spread Pick

Pick: Georgia -11.5 (-112)

Arizona State vs. No. 8 BYU Spread Pick

BYU is the rightful favorite in this game, but I don't think the Cougars should be set as this big of a favorite. Arizona State certainly isn't a playoff contender, but their defense has been solid this season, including ranking 37th in opponent EPA per play and 35th in defensive success rate. That should be good enough to slow down a BYU offense that isn't quite as good as you might think.

BYU is 29th in EPA per play, 33rd in EPA per pass, and 30th in EPA per rush. There's no denying those numbers are good, but they aren't at the elite level you'd expect from a top-10 team in the country.

I'll take the points with the Sun Devils and hope their defense can keep the score within reach.

Pick: Arizona State +16.5 (-112)

Minnesota vs. No. 4 Indiana Spread Pick

Pick: Minnesota +20.5 (-108)

No. 20 Northwestern vs. Oregon Spread Pick

Pick: Northwestern +3.5 (-110)

No. 6 Utah vs. Cincinnati Spread Pick

Pick: Utah -6.5 (-115)

Virginia vs. No. 14 Wake Forest Spread Pick

Pick: Wake Forest -12.5 (-110)

Nevada vs. No. 7 UCLA Spread Pick

Pick: UCLA -22.5 (-112)

No. 24 Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State Spread Pick

This is a terrible stylistic matchup for Iowa State. Oklahoma State's biggest strength is its passing game, led by Drew Mestemaker, who has them ranking 14th in the country in both EPA per pass and pass success rate. Now they get to face a terrible Iowa State secondary that ranks 106th in opponent EPA per pass and 103rd in defensive pass success rate.

I'll bet on the good time to continue to roll for the Cowboys. I'll lay the points on Oklahoma State.

Pick: Oklahoma State -9.5 (-108)

No. 2 Ohio State vs. USC Spread Pick

Pick: Ohio State -6.5 (-115)

No. 1 Miami vs. North Carolina Spread Pick

Pick: Miami -14 (-108)

Mississippi State vs. No. 11 Texas Spread Pick

Mississippi State has little to no chance to hang with the Longhorns in this game. Moving the ball against a stout Texas defense that leads the country in opponent-adjusted EPA per play was going to be hard enough; now, with a new quarterback taking over, the Bulldogs are going to struggle to put many points on the board.

The Longhorns offense has struggled at times, but the Mississippi State defense ranks just 105th in the country in opponent success rate.

I'll lay the points with the Longhorns in this one.

Pick: Texas -20.5 (-105)

No. 23 Missouri vs. Arkansas Spread Pick

I still firmly believe that the Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the worst power conference teams in the country. Despite getting an SEC win two weeks ago, they still rank 103rd in net EPA per play and 116th in net success rate. By comparison, Missouri ranks 26th and 49th in those two metrics.

The Tigers' passing attack has been effective this season, and they should have no problem moving the ball against a defense that's 114th in success rate.

I'll lay the points with the Tigers on Saturday.

Pick: Missouri -10 (-108)

Texas State vs. No. 20 Boise State Spread Pick

Texas State is good enough to cover this spread. Their offense has been solid this season, ranking 42nd in adjusted EPA per play and 18th in offensive success rate. They should be able to move the ball against a Boise State defense that has been average this season, including ranking 89th in opponent EPA per rush.

The Texas State secondary is one of the worst in the country, but the Bobcats rank 33rd in opponent rush EPA, which is going to play a big role in stopping Boise State's biggest weapon: its run game. If they can slow down the Broncos' rushing attack, Texas State can cover this spread.

Pick: Boise State -11.5 (-108)

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