A Hockey Bracketology Projection the NCAA Would be Thrilled to Have: Puck Drop
We're going to reflecting and analyzing the gold medals for the men's and women's versions of Team USA at the Winter Olympics for quite some time, but first this week's bracketology for the sport that didn't take a break over the last couple of weeks.
If you’ve been following us, you know how this works. The NCAA Tournament will have a 16-team field, with six automatic bids for the conference tournament winner and then at least 10 at-large bids based on the National Collegiate Percentage (NPI) Index.
For our purposes, the automatic bids are the teams leading their respective conferences in points. So even though Michigan State may be No. 1 in the national rankings, Michigan gets the automatic bid for is since the Wolverines are currently atop the Big Ten. The Spartans are still the top-seeded team in the tournament, but that sort of explains our process and thinking.
It’s much more of a factor with the CCHA, where Augustana’s hold on first place may be extremely temporary. The Vikings have already wrapped up their regular season with 50 points, while Michigan Tech and St. Thomas are both at 48, Minnesota State has 46, and Bowling Green is at 44. However, the conference may only get one spot in the field, as those first four teams are all between 15-18 in NPI, and Bowling Green is No. 21.
Why do we do it that way? Because we think it’s more reflective of what the final field will look like with the conference tournaments having a history of surprise outcomes. The No. 15 team almost certainly isn’t going to get in as an at-large.
Step 1: The automatic bids, Bentley (AHA), Michigan (Big Ten), Augustana (CCHA), Quinnipiac (ECAC), Providence (Hockey East), North Dakota (NCHC). Those teams are ranked in NPI, in order, 25, 2, 17, 7, 6 and 3.
Step 2: The at-large bids. Again, in order: Michigan State, Western Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota Duluth, Denver, Cornell, Dartmouth, Boston College, Wisconsin and Connecticut.
First teams out: St. Thomas, Minnesota State, Michigan Tech, Massachusetts.
Step 3: Seedings, in order.
1. Michigan State
2. Michigan
3. North Dakota
4. Western Michigan
5. Penn State
6. Providence
7. Quinnipiac
8. Minnesota Duluth
9. Denver
10. Cornell
11. Dartmouth
12. Boston College
13. Wisconsin
14. Connecticut
15. Augustana
16. Bentley
Sept 4: Place them in tiers. Teams can’’t be moved out of their tiers for bracket integrity.
Tier 1: Michigan State, Michigan, North Dakota, Western Michigan
Tier 2: Penn State, Providence, Quinnipiac, Minnesota Duluth
Tier 3: Denver, Cornell, Dartmouth, Boston College
Tier 4: Wisconsin, Connecticut, Augustana, Bentley
Denver moving down from tier 2 to 3 from a week ago, and Boston College moving up from a 4 to 3, will be interesting to see they impact things.
Step 5: Brackets. This is how they would look in a perfect 1 vs. 16, 8 vs. 9, etc. format:
1 Michigan State, 8 Minnesota Duluth, 9 Denver, 16 Bentley
4 Western Michigan, 5 Penn State, 10 Cornell, 15 Augustana
3 North Dakota, 6 Providence, 11 Dartmouth, 14 Connecticut
2 Michigan, 7 Quinnipiac, 12 Boston College, 13 Wisconsin
Do we have any first-round matchups of teams from the same conference? Yes, there are two, Michigan vs. Wisconsin, and UMD vs. Denver. We switch the lower teams with the teams nearest them in the seedings while staying in the same tiers. So Wisconsin and UConn, and then Denver and Cornell, which plays into the next part of the process.
Step 6: Venues. Regional hosts have to play in their sites if in the tournament. There’s only one that is in this scenario, Denver at Loveland, Colo. There others are Albany, N.Y. (Union), Worcester, Mass (Holy Cross) and Sioux Falls, S.D. (Omaha).
Having a local attendance draw starts to be a factor. Putting North Dakota in Sioux Falls is a natural fit. So is Cornell in Albany, and then three schools near Worcester is borderline too good to be true when compared to our previous bracketologies.
Albany: 1 Michigan State, 8 Minnesota Duluth, 10 Cornell, 16 Bentley
Loveland: 4 Western Michigan, 5 Penn State, 9 Denver, 15 Augustana
Sioux Falls: 3 North Dakota, 6 Providence, 11 Dartmouth, 13 Wisconsin
Worcester: 2 Michigan, 7 Quinnipiac, 12 Boston College, 14 Connecticut
Step 7: Attendance. Is there a small change that could be made to boost attendance at a regional? There’s one in this scenario that would seriously tempt the selection committee, moving Augustana to Sioux Falls. Swapping Wisconsin a second time isn’t ideal, but it would guarantee having a local team in at least two of the regional finals.
NCAA officials would be thrilled to have this bracket if given the opportunity.
Feb. 23 College Hockey Bracketology Projection
Albany: 1 Michigan State vs. 16 Bentley; 8 Minnesota Duluth vs. 10 Cornell
Loveland: 4 Western Michigan vs. 13 Wisconsin; 5 Penn State vs. 9 Denver
Sioux Falls: 3 North Dakota vs. 15 Augustana; 6 Providence vs. 11 Dartmouth
Worcester: 2 Michigan vs. 14 Connecticut; 7 Quinnipiac vs. 12 Boston College
SEE ALSO: Last Week's Bracketology
Puck Drop: Monday, February 23, 2026
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Men's College Hockey Sunday Score
Exhibition
Lindenwood 9, US Under-18 4
Women's College Hockey Sunday Score
WCHA
No. 1 Wisconsin 4, St. Cloud State 2
Games between ranked opponents are bolded. All times are local to where the game is being played.
Monday's College Hockey Game
No Games Scheduled
Olympics Hockey Update
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Hockey Quote of the Day
“The team was built with personality in mind … There are whiskey drinkers and milk drinkers, and we got a lot of whiskey drinkers.”Gold-Medal Winning Coach Mike Sullivan
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Christopher Walsh is the founder and publisher of Alabama Crimson Tide On SI, which first published as BamaCentral in 2018, and is also the publisher of the Boston College, Missouri and Vanderbilt sites . He's covered the Crimson Tide since 2004 and is the author of 27 books including “100 Things Crimson Tide Fans Should Know and Do Before They Die” and “Nick Saban vs. College Football.” He's an eight-time honoree of Football Writers Association of America awards and three-time winner of the Herby Kirby Memorial Award, the Alabama Sports Writers Association’s highest writing honor for story of the year. In 2022, he was named one of the 50 Legends of the ASWA. Previous beats include the Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, along with Major League Baseball’s Arizona Diamondbacks. Originally from Minnesota and a graduate of the University of New Hampshire, he currently resides in Tuscaloosa.
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