Cougs Daily

Could BYU's AP Ranking Still Be Too Low Based on Resume?

Joe Wheat|
BYU CB Therrian Alexander III against WVU
BYU CB Therrian Alexander III against WVU | BYU Photo

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BYU Cougars

BYU vaulted up the AP rankings this week after a chaotic weekend in college football. If Friday's win over lowly West Virginia was a bummer for you, allow me to introduce you to Penn State. Winning is hard. It’s also hard to score 38 points with 3 turnovers but BYU had no problem doing that. Was the win really underwhelming? Or is it battered fan syndrome? Let’s dig into the numbers.

How the AP Voters view BYU

It’s evident that many voters saw BYU for the first time this week as BYU dominated in a standalone window. Voters who were hesitant to anoint BYU due to their quarterback questions had those questions answered by a 350-yard game by Bear Bachmeier. This week, BYU appeared on 26 new ballots, vaulting them to 18th nationally. This week, though, our gripe is not with BYU’s ranking, but with their conference mates' lack of ranking.

Utah, Cincinnati, and TCU should be in this poll. The three are a combined12-3 with their only losses coming to top-10 Texas Tech, on the road against 4-1 Nebraska, and on the road to #22 ASU by one score. Cincinnati is first out of the polls after beating up on then #14 Iowa State, who is still ranked. The Big 12 continues to be disrespected nationally despite being on par metrically from top to bottom with the Big Ten and the SEC. Hopefully this will play itself out, but it’s hard to build a playoff resume when the rankings are holding space for Notre Dame and the 9th best SEC team.

How the predictive metrics view BYU

Definition: Predictive metrics measure absolute strength of a team relative to the average team. Similar ratings are used by sports books to generate betting spreads.

SP+: 21

FPI: 20

KFord: 24

FEI: 21

Average: 21.5 (Prior week: 20.5)

As we approach the point in the season where preseason expectations are phased out of the predictive metrics, we will start to see less movement in BYU’s team strength. BYU’s average power rating remained steady at 15.3 points above average while their ranking dropped one spot following a 14-point win to West Virginia. This means BYU performed about as well as predicted.

Where BYU has consistently outperformed expectations, though, is on offense. BYU’s average offensive efficiency rating among the four has climbed nearly 20 spots since their win over Stanford. BYU now ranks 36th nationally in offense on average and has climbed by about five spots every week. This mirrors what our eyes have seen as Bear Bachmeier continues to gain experience. After the win, BYU ranks 28th in points per drive, 18th in available yards gained, 29th in yards per play, 27th in per play success rate, and 10th in drive success rate. No surprise, the defense continues to rate highly, averaging 10th nationally in defensive efficiency across the four ratings.

All four services project that BYU will win between 9-10 games this season while FPI gives BYU the second-best odds to win the Big 12 (17%) and a 30% chance to make the playoff. BYU is projected to be favored in all of their remaining games except Texas Tech. That said, margins are getting thinner, as the largest favored matchup over the next six games is five points against TCU. Buckle up.

What do the resume-based metrics say?

Definition: Resume based metrics compare the teams performance to how the average top 10 team would have performed against the same schedule. They measure not only strength of schedule, but how a team performs against that schedule.

SP+: 10

FPI (SOR): 13

KFord: 13

FEI: 12

Average: 12 (Prior: 13.25)

When you are undefeated in October, the resume metrics will love you regardless of who you play. BYU’s strength of schedule so far this season is awful. There's no getting around that. However, the numbers say that there aren’t 15 teams in the country that have played better against their schedule than BYU. As things stand today, BYU looks like a playoff team. Thankfully, resume metrics like these will be used by the playoff committee beginning this year.

Now comes the scary part. BYU’s schedule to date ranks 105th nationally. BYU’s remaining schedule ranks 27th. BYU has not played a top 50 team all season. They are about to play six in a row. While it's important to adjust our expectations to the level of competition BYU is about to play, it’s also important to look forward to the opportunity BYU has in front of them. Last season, BYU was left out of the conference title race because of a weak conference schedule. As it stands today, BYU has the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the conference. BYU might lose some games over the next few weeks, but at least it will be settled on the field this year.

Conclusion

Here’s the thing. BYU being ranked 18th makes a lot of sense after combining BYU's resume and predictive ratings. However, this author feels hesitant putting a team in the top 20 without a single top-50 win. You can only win the games on your schedule, but it’s ok to feel some trepidation about BYU’s ranking until we see them beat an Arizona or a Utah. If BYU is as good as their ranking says, they should probably do both.

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Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.

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