Five Reasons No. 25 BYU Will Take Down Colorado

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The last time we saw BYU take the field against a Colorado football team just nine months ago, BYU walked out with a 22-point win. This is a new year and a new challenge, but BYU should still be up for the test. Here are five reasons history could repeat itself on Saturday.
1. BYU will get pressure on Kaidon Salter

BYU is among the most aggressive defenses in the country, blitzing over half the time this season. Colorado, on the other hand, has only been blitzed on 24% of dropbacks, but has allowed pressure on 36% of dropbacks. When pressured, Salter struggles. Salter completes 30% of his passes against pressure this season for 2.8 yards per attempt, 0 big-time throws, and a 6% turnover-worthy play rate. Colorado’s task now will be to face PFF’s number one pass rusher in America: Jack Kelly. BYU’s defense should find life as Salter runs for his.
2. Salters’ creativity will get him into trouble

In just one week, BYU will go from playing the quarterback who gets the ball out the fastest to the quarterback who gets the ball out the slowest. Salter’s time-to-throw is 3.4 seconds, nearly a full second longer than the national average. Salter does not play as if he’s comfortable in a clean pocket, often bailing at the first sign of pressure. At that point, the results are a coin flip. Outside the pocket this season, Salter completes under 40% of his passes but averages 8.8 yards per attempt with 3 big-time throws and 2 turnover-worthy plays. BYU’s defense is built on pressuring the quarterback and baiting them into forcing throws in tight windows. If Salter insists on playing outside the pocket against BYU, BYU could force multiple turnovers.
3. BYU’s offense is a matchup nightmare for Colorado’s defense

Colorado’s run defense is bad. In two games against P4 competition, Colorado allowed 529 yards rushing, with 5 Georgia Tech players averaging over 6.5 yards per carry. Colorado now faces an offense that ranks 11th in yards per carry and 4th in yards per carry after contact. That strong run game has made life easy for QB Bear Bachmeier who is the nation's 11th highest-graded quarterback on play action this season. That brings news from bad to worse for Colorado who currently has the third worst PFF coverage grade in the Power Four, ahead of only UCLA and Virginia Tech.
4. BYU’s offense can play ball control against a struggling Buffalo defense

Colorado has plain struggled to stop opposing offenses this season, ranking 94th in yards per play allowed and 113th in available yards allowed this season. That is happy news for a BYU offense that ranks 12th this season in quality drive rate. BYU should have no issues sustaining drives against Colorado, which will allow the defense to be as aggressive as it wants and force Kaidon Salter to force throws in order to keep up.
5. Colorado is a one-dimensional offense, playing a three-dimensional defense

Colorado does not run the football well, ranking 109th in success rate per rush. Their job gets harder now that two of their top three running backs are listed as "out" for the game against BYU. That will leave more workload on the shoulders of Kaidon Salter, who already is asked to be the offensive focal point on over 75% of his snaps played. BYU, on the other hand, does everything well on defense, ranking 7th in pass efficiency defense and 2nd in rushing defense. There just isn’t a lot of things Colorado’s offense does that are better than BYU’s answer on defense. Not having any kind of consistent run game with a quarterback that has already been benched once this year only makes it worse.
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Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.