FPI Predicts BYU vs Arizona, Updates BYU's Win Projection for Upcoming Gauntlet

BYU safety Raider Damuni against Arizona | BYU Photo

After a win over WVU on Friday night, BYU will hit the road once again for a road test in Arizona. The Cougars will take on the Arizona Wildcats in what will kickoff a six-game gauntlet on BYU's schedule. ESPN FPI cemented its prediction for BYU-Arizona and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2025 season.

ESPN FPI gives BYU a 69.7% chance to go beat the Wildcats in Tucson.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2025 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 9.3-2.7. Below are the game-by-game predictions. BYU is favored in every remaining game except Texas Tech per FPI.

• Arizona - 69.7% (Down from 73.1% in the preseason)
• Utah - 57.7% (Down from (70.0%)
• Iowa State - 52.3% (Up from 47.1%)
• Texas Tech - 39.8% (Down from 55.7%)
• TCU - 67.3% (Down from 68.1%)
• Cincinnati - 59.2% (Down from 60.5%)
• UCF - 85.7% (Up from 72.7%)

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 10 or more regular season wins. Winning 10 games would put BYU in contention for the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. FPI gives BYU a 45.2% chance to win 10 games or more - down from 53.0% last week - and a 2.9% chance to go undefeated.

6 wins or more - 99.9%
7 wins or more - 98.9%
8 wins or more - 92.9%
9 wins or more - 75.0%
10 wins or more - 45.2%
11 wins or more - 17.0%
12 wins (undefeated) - 2.9%

FPI Rankings

BYU dropped a few spots to no. 20 in the FPI rankings after the win over West Virginia. The Cougars are no longer the highest-ranked team in the Big 12. Texas Tech jumped all the way up to no. 14 after a dominant road win over Houston.

• Texas Tech - 14
• BYU - 20
• Utah - 21
• TCU - 25
• Kansas - 30
• Iowa State - 31
• Arizona State - 34
• Cincinnati - 38
• Baylor - 43
• Kansas State - 44
• Arizona - 47
• UCF - 55
• Colorado - 59
• Houston - 63
• West Virginia - 77
• Oklahoma State - 113

Conference Title Hopes

In terms of conference title hopes, Texas Tech is the clear front-runner according to FPI. The Red Raiders also have a favorable conference slate the rest of the way. BYU is second in line behind the Red Raiders. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.

• Texas Tech - 46.9%
• BYU - 17.9%
• Arizona State - 8.1%
• Utah - 8.0%
• Cincinnati - 6.0%
• TCU - 4.5%
• Iowa State - 4.2%
• Kansas - 3.1%
• Baylor - 0.9%

BYU and Texas Tech are the only two teams with more than a 10% chance to win the league according to FPI, and only five teams in the league have better than a 5% chance to win the conference.

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU has a 30.0% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That's the second best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• Texas Tech - 53.6%
• BYU - 30.0%
• Utah - 11.6%
• Arizona State - 8.2%
• Cincinnati - 6.6%
• TCU - 6.6%
• Iowa State - 6.3%
• Kansas - 3.0%
• Baylor - 0.9%