What the Analytics Say About BYU's Chances to Win the Pop-Tarts Bowl

The advanced analytics favor the Cougars in a the Pop-Tarts Bowl

BYU's Jack Kelly breaks up a pass intended for Texas Tech's Cameron Dickey during the Big 12 Conference championship football game, Saturday, Nov. 6, 2025, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On Saturday, the BYU football team will look to secure their 12th win of the season in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. The Cougars and the Yellow Jackets will face each other for the first time since 2013 when BYU beat Georgia Tech 38-20. BYU is 3-1 all time against Georgia Tech.

BYU is a slim favorite in this game. Oddsmakers favor the Cougars by 4.5 points as of Tuesday morning. In this article, we will turn to the advanced analytics and what they are saying about BYU's chances to beat Georgia Tech.

BCFToys (FEI)

BCFToys is more bullish on BYU's chances than the oddsmakers. Their model gives BYU a 76.7% chance to beat Georgia Tech with a projected final score of 32-21 in favor of the Cougars. BCFToys ranks BYU as the 17th team nationally with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of no. 23 nationally and an offensive ranking of 20th nationally.

Georgia Tech ranks ranks 45th nationally with an offensive ranking of 30th and a defensive rating of 75th.

On paper, the BYU offense against the Georgia Tech defense is the biggest opportunity in this game. The Yellow Jackets really struggled on the defensive end to finish the season.

SP+

SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-Georgia Tech.

SP+ gives BYU a 67% chance to win with an expected final score of 32-25. BYU ranks 18th in SP+. Most notably, SP+ believes the BYU offense has caught up to the BYU defense after trailing the defense throughout the season. BYU ranks 23rd in offensive SP+ and 22nd in defensive SP+.

Georgia Tech ranks 35th in SP+.

FPI is slightly less bullish on BYU's chances. FPI gives BYU a 65.7% chance to win.

CFB Graphs

CFB Graphs gives BYU an 64.8% chance to beat Georgia Tech with a projected final score of 30-22.

BYU should be able to move the football in this game. BYU ranks 21st in quality drive rate and Georgia Tech ranks 69th in quality drive rate allowed. Where Tech struggles the most is points allowed per quality drive. When an opposing team gets into their territory, they really struggle to stop them. Tech ranks 122nd in points allowed per quality drive.

This game will come down to BYU's ability to stop the run. Georgia Tech ranks 5th in offensive success rate when rushing the football. BYU ranks 34th nationally in success rate against the run.