Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Keys to the Game: West Virginia Mountaineers

The Bearcats have lost six of their past eight games.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Mar 7, 2024 9:52 AM EST

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CINCINNATI — The regular season finale is here for a UC basketball squad that's lost six of its past eight games in a sputtering close to the season. Renewed Big East rival West Virginia is on deck as they also wrap up a disappointing regular season stretch.

Cincinnati lost the first matchup in late January and is looking to split the season series and end WVU's five-game winning streak in the series (UC 10-11 all-time against WVU).

The Bearcats enter this game ranked 45th in the NET and 44th on KenPom, while WVU is 147th in the NET and 135th on KenPom.

When West Virginia Has The Ball

Cincinnati's interior forces have to do a better job on WVU center Jesse Edwards (15.3 Pts, 8.4 Reb, 1.3 Ast) in this game. He dominated in the four-point loss earlier this season (25 points and 10 rebounds on 11-of-17 shooting).

The Mountaineers can definitely pull off the upset if they pair a nice high-low outing with Edwards and top guard RaeQuan Battle (16.6 Pts, 4.1 Reb, 0.6 Ast). He's heating up with 13-plus points in four of his past five games including two 25-plus point outings. Cincinnati did a great job keeping the ball out of his hands in the first matchup and another 2-of-6 shooting night is the goal.

If Cincinnati can box out Edwards well and keep Battle from getting red-hot, then they should have more than enough offensive success to win. WVU is the second-worst rebounding team in Big 12 play (28.7 per game) and shouldn't get a lot of extra chances to aid a middling offense (70.9 PPG in Big 12 play, eighth).

They've run extremely hot from deep in conference play (37.3% from deep, first) and that's something Cincinnati (35.3% allowed in conference, 10th) has to stay on top of. The Bearcats hit nine threes to WVU's five last game, but UC shot 32 of them and WVU shot 11. Making them inefficient is crucial as the Mountaineers don't have consistent shot makers inside the arc if Edwards isn't cooking.

WVU is shooting 48.3% from two-point range in conference play (13th among all Big 12 teams).

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

The three-point shots have to start falling if Cincinnati wants to break out of this slump. In this eight-game window (2-6 record), Wes Miller's squad is shooting 30.2% from outside on 21.1 attempts per game.

The math on those attempts isn't working. They are averaging 0.9 points per three-point try and 0.97 points per two-point try. The outside shot is supposed to be wayyyyy more efficient, yet the Bearcats are a better two-point shooting team right now, and it's cratered their NCAA tournament hopes.

They don't have to shoot 35%-plus to win on Saturday, but they definitely will have to hit that mark a few times to win the Big 12 Tournament. West Virginia is a great team to start sparking that run, allowing 80.8 PPG in conference (14th) and a 36.3% mark from outside (13th). They do not close out well on shooters and have struggled to communicate mightily on their five-game losing streak.

Teams are shooting 43% from deep in this stretch, just what the doctor ordered for Cincinnati. Simas Lukošius and John Newman III (to a lesser extent) are the only proven outside shooters in the rotation right now. A third reliable weapon surfacing on that front needs to appear on Saturday and beyond.

Prediction: 75-68 Bearcats

Cincinnati hits 10-plus triples in a Big 12 game for the first time on Saturday to make simple work of the Mountaineers in a game where they never trail.

It sets them up to avoid playing in the first round of the conference tournament if UCF loses its final game at TCU.

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