Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Keys to the Game: Kansas State Wildcats

Wes Miller's crew has lost five of its past six games.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Feb 29, 2024 11:04 AM EST

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CINCINNATI — Cincinnati's hopes for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid got basically stamped out over the past week, but they have an opportunity to start building momentum towards a Big 12 Tournament run on Saturday against Kansas State.

The Wildcats enter Fifth Third Arena with a 24.5% chance to win on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. Whoever loses this game will be definitively eliminated from at-large contention, as KSU ranks 74th in the NET (71st on KenPom) and Cincinnati sits at No. 45 (44th on KenPom).

Cincinnati is 1-0 all-time against KSU, beating them in the 2017 NCAA Tournament.

When Kansas State Has The Ball

Expect another slow-paced grind-down affair at Fifth Third Arena as Cincinnati tries to disrupt one of the worst offenses in the Big 12 (third to last among Big 12 teams in adjusted off. efficiency).

The Wildcats' top-two scorers have not been consistently efficient at all this season and Cincinnati has to keep that trend rolling. Guards Tylor Perry (15.6 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 4.6 Ast) and Camryn Carter (15.2 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 2.8 Ast) drive most of the offensive success.

Perry goes as his deep shot goes, taking 8.4 outside shots to just 2.9 inside shots per game (32.8% from deep). Cincinnati cannot let Perry work his way into open looks and spark three-point success for a team ranked 110th in attempts (23.6) but just 302nd in percentage (31.5%).

The best shooter to worry about is versatile forward Arthur Kaluma (14.9 Pts, 7.1 Reb, 2.1 Ast). The 6-foot-7 swingman could be the skeleton key to offensive success on Saturday. He hits 36.8% of his 4.6 triple tries per game and is the only forward in the rotation with an expansive offensive skill set.

Communication off of Perry's passes is largely going to decide this game. Shredding his shooting confidence to start is huge. He does a great job setting up teammates once the defense starts threading his way and it's led to great success for KSU this season.

Keep his assists down and UC should win the game (KSU is 4-7 on the season when Perry has four or fewer assists).

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

Ball screens, sets, crisp passes...none of those fleeting aspects of Tuesday's action against No. 1 Houston mattered because UC couldn't consistently hit open shots.

Wes Miller's declarations that this team would improve its shooting throughout the season just haven't happened (sub-48% effective field goal rate in four of the past five games). It's not a high-level analysis, but none of the little things will likely lead to a win on Saturday if they shoot under 40% for the 10th time in 2023-24 (1-9 in those games).

The guards have to shoot better, specifically Day Day Thomas (under 45% in all conference games but one, 34.5% on 9.9 shots per game in conference) and John Newman III. The veteran stopper had complemented his great defense with five double-digit scoring outings in a six-game span but has averaged just 4.6 points on 36.4% shooting in the five games since that stretch.

Kansas State is not a get-right team on this front with the 19th-best defense nationally by adjusted efficiency, they do rank 10th in conference play PPG allowed though (69.8). Cincinnati will have to mow through two solid rim protectors in David N'Guessan (7.7 Pts, 6.8 Reb, 0.8 Blk) and William McNair (7.7 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 0.7 Ast). They sport the best defensive ratings in the rotation and allow KSU's perimeter defenders to sell out on the three-point line.

Cincinnati must get some more scoring production from the guards to space out all three levels of the floor. Then, they can start to feed Viktor Lakhin and the frontcourt as the Russian put up a nice Houston bounce-back outing that he can build on against Kansas State.

Prediction: Cincinnati 68-66

A slow-tempo game that features Lakhin posting his first 20-point performance in the Big 12. He uses nice footwork on the KSU big fellas to get efficient buckets, and the Bearcats' perimeter defense keeps Perry from making enough slick passes to pull an upset.

Cincinnati gets a win that they'll have to stack at least five more in a row on top of to have any realistic shot at an at-large bid.

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