Preview: Cincinnati Faces Quick Turnaround Against Wichita State

The Shockers have won four of their past six games and sport plenty of similarities to Cincinnati.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Feb 16, 2022 3:55 PM EST

CINCINNATI — One opponent leaves Fifth Third Arena, and another quickly enters. The Cincinnati Bearcats (16-9, 6-6) are playing three home games in six days this week, with Wichita State (13-9, 4-6) up next.

UC's hopes for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid got completely crushed during Tuesday's 81-74 loss to Memphis. Now, they must grease the wheels and find a winning formula heading into next month's AAC Tournament. That is the only path into March Madness.

The same is true for the Shockers, who started 0-4 in AAC play—but have turned things around since losing to UC 61-57 last month. Head coach Isaac Brown's team is 4-2 since—including a 72-57 win over SMU.

Cincinnati enters the contest ranked 85th in KenPom, while WSU is 83rd. ESPN's matchup predictor has Cincinnati winning 65.3% of the time. The Bearcats are 26-13 all-time against Wichita State and 8-2 in the AAC. Over the last six contests, this series is separated by three points per game.

Unless Abdul Ado misses his second game of the season, don't expect a much different contest than the one that played out last month. The 61-57 defensive brawl was a meeting of matching strengths. The Shockers enter Clifton ranked 25th in defensive efficiency (93.1), while Cincinnati ranks 46th (95). Although, Wes Miller has not been happy with that aspect of his team lately.

"I look up, and 10 days ago we’re 25th in the country in defensive efficiency on KenPom, which is a stat ranking system that I really value," Miller said about the slipping defense. "So, you’re guarding, a top-25 defense in the country 10 days ago. I thought at South Florida we were back to that a little bit. Outside of the South Florida game, we haven’t defended like that. We’ve got to get back to defending like that to consistently compete in these types of games over forty minutes, and we weren’t able to do all that for forty minutes tonight."

Wichita State's allowed 70-plus points just twice in the past eight games, and unlike most great defenses the prowess largely starts with guard Craig Porter (9.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, team-high four assists, and 2.1 steals). The sneaky ball maven missed the first game in the season series and could be just what WSU needs to slow down UC's guard-driven attack.

Porter is the Shocker's best overall player; keeping things on schedule defensively and offensively. He holds the 12th-best steal rate in the conference (3.21%) and the eighth-best assist rate (28.2%). The 6-foot-2, 185-pound guard uses his quickness and basketball intelligence to break down opposing units on both ends. No player in conference play averages more steals per game (2.11)

The Swiss Army Knife is also the team's best three-point shooter at 42.9% in conference play. That would rank second just ahead of Jeremiah Davenport (41.1%) if Porter took 2.5 attempts per game (2.3). All of that while being first among all Shockers in defensive rating at 93.4 points allowed per 100 possessions—6.2 points better than any other player.

Wichita State had just 10 assists in the first meeting. Porter will do everything he can to try and double that mark. His fellow backcourt running mates can do their fair share of playmaking as well, but Ricky Council IV (13.2 points in AAC play, 5.3 rebounds) and Tyson Etienne (team-high 15.6 points in AAC play, 3.1 rebounds) are scorers at heart.

UC and WSU mirror each other with great defense and are also both driven by guard production offensively. Mix in Dexter Dennis (10.2 points in conference play), and you get four players 6-foot-6 or smaller leading WSU in conference scoring.

Council has been the most efficient scorer on the Shockers roster this season. He is posting the 20th best effective field goal rate in the AAC (49.5%) and is the leading force on a great free-throw shooting team. The freshman attacks baskets with veteran savvy, always seeming to find a whistle. He leads all Shockers in FT attempts (4.9) and all AAC players in percentage (87.8%) in conference play.

Overall, Council has the eighth-best FT rate in the AAC (42.2%). The guard knows where his bread is buttered and has leaned even more into his search for contact. He had a 20-attempt game against UCF recently and is more than happy to get all his points at the charity stripe.

Look for Wichita State to try and get UC into early foul trouble if Ado can't suit up. The Shockers are third in AAC play with 14.2 FTs made per game, and Cincinnati gives up the third-most FT attempts in AAC play on the flip side (19.7).

Etienne is right behind Council on the charity stripe brigade (3.2 FT attempts) and is WSU's go-to volume shooter from outside. The sophomore jacks up 9.4 triple tries per game and has the third most makes in the AAC (3.3).

As last season's AAC Player of the Year, Ettiene commands respect from every opposing defense and is earning more of it by the week in 2022. Over the past five games, he's averaging 17.8 points, 1.2 steals, and four rebounds on 38.9% shooting from outside and 87.5% from the FT line.

He shot 30.8% from deep and 74% from the line in the first 15 games of the season. Cincinnati has to stymie that hot streak at least a little bit if they want to keep their 2021-22 season from entering a freefall in the final month.

Thursday's game tips off inside Fifth Third Arena at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

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