Preview: Cincinnati Hosts South Florida on Senior Night

CINCINNATI — The final Throwback Night of the season coincides with Senior Night on Saturday. The Cincinnati Bearcats (17-11, 7-8) are trying to end their home slate with a season sweep of the South Florida Bulls (7-20, 2-13).

Many people expected 2021-22 to be a rebuilding season for Wes Miller and the Bearcats. The feelings have unfortunately flipped to the opposite path fans would like to see. Miller started the year as the only Bearcats coach in team history to open his tenure 5-0.

Cincinnati has defined mediocre in the dictionary since that season-opening statement. The team's lost five of its past seven games and appears to be going backward in a stretch where they need to be building momentum for the AAC Tournament and more importantly, Year Two of the Miller era.

The Bulls enter this game ranked as the last AAC team in KenPom at No. 257. Cincinnati sits at No. 96, and ESPN's matchup predictor has UC winning 92% of the time

Those odds make sense regardless of how Cincinnati is playing in February. South Florida is easily the worst team in the AAC and a great squad to get back on track against this season. February has been just as bad for the Bulls, who've gone 1-7—eclipsing 60 points just once.

That's the big issue for Brian Gregory's team: they can't score.

South Florida has the third-worst PPG total of any Division I team (57.6). They rank last in conference play across categories like FG percentage (37.8%), three-point FG percentage (26.4%), free throw percentage (65.4%), and are last in defensive rebounding (23.7).

Only the 2019-20 Kennesaw State and 2013-14 Howard squads have posted worse season-long outside shooting marks in the past ten seasons. South Florida is shooting 24.9% from outside across the entire campaign.

Unsurprisingly, the Bulls have just two players averaging double figures in conference play: Caleb Murphy (10.3 points, team-high 2.9 assists) and Jamir Chaplin (11.3 points, 4.3 rebounds).

Murphy is the leading scorer on the full season, but a closer look reveals it's just because he has the ball a lot. Murphy defines volume statistics—head-scratchingly, he leads the team in shot rate (25.9%, 10th highest in AAC) while being seventh on the team in true shooting percentage (42.1%). Among the 37 qualified AAC players, Murphy ranks last in that stat across the full season (43.9%).

He probably should focus more on playmaking and less on shooting. He's wildly inefficient with his shot and takes 2.6 more FG attempts than any other Bull. Cincinnati surely wants to keep the ball in his hands and out of Chaplin's.

The latter has used his 6-foot-5, 196-pound frame to find nice angles to the hoop over the past two months. Chaplin attacks the rim judiciously and is shooting 62.7% from two-point range in conference play. He ranks 11th among all AAC players for the full season at 54.2% from two-point range.

Look for South Florida to funnel their offense to the rim with Chaplin & Co. while avoiding threes like the plague. He is by far their most effective offensive player when he's on the floor—posting a conference offensive rating 8.2 points higher than any other Bull. Chaplin isn't afraid to fight for those extra chances when the first shot doesn't fall either. His proximity to the basket is a big reason why he leads USF with 2.2 offensive rebounds per game in conference play.

South Florida is a solid team at attacking the offensive glass overall (30.2% offensive rebound rate, 113th nationally), and Chaplin isn't the only weapon on that front. The last Bull of note is junior center Russell Tchewa (9.1 points in AAC play, team-high 5.7 rebounds).

The Cameroon native is the second-best offensive rebounder behind Chaplin (1.9) and the third-leading scorer in conference play. Tchewa hasn't been very efficient getting those points; he is shooting 50% from a shot diet that largely comes at the rim. Tchewa has not attempted a three-point shot this season.

South Florida will try to find a way to win without that aspect of the game hurting as it has all season long. The Bulls shot 1-of-9 from outside against UC earlier this month, and that's the formula once again for Cincinnati. Keeping USF off of the offensive glass and the ball in Murphy's hands should give the Bearcats a few paths to victory on Senior Night.

Catch all of the action from Fifth Third Arena on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

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