Preview: East Carolina Takes on UC at Fifth Third Arena

Both teams are trying to avoid back-to-back losses in conference play.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Jan 11, 2022 2:30 PM EST

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats (11-5, 1-2) let Sunday's game against Memphis slip away in the final moments, but they are ready for a rebound performance against the East Carolina Pirates (10-4, 1-1).

Cincinnati's ball movement and shooting from outside are trending in the right direction over the past two games. They canned 45.8% of their triples and notched 19.5 assists per game over the past two contests. UC would love to continue that against one of the better offensive teams in the AAC.

The Bearcats enter Wednesday's game ranked 74th in KenPom, while the Pirates slot in at No. 158. ESPN's matchup predictor gives Cincinnati a 78.8% chance to win.

Wes Miller's team shut down a high-powered scorer last week in Kendric Davis, and they'll likely have to do it again when ECU comes to town. Their leading playmaker, Tristen Newton (team-high 18.2 points, team-high 5.1 assists, four rebounds), is tied for 61st nationally in points per game.

The 6-foot-5 guard is a walking bucket that can score and find open teammates all over the floor. Temple pulled out the blueprint to slow Newton in the Pirate's 78-75 loss on Saturday. The Owls forced Newton into a bunch of contested shots and showed discipline with their physicality.

The Texas native finished with eight points on 3-of-11 shooting. Yet, great players still find a way to affect the game, and Newton did that with a season-high nine assists. That's the problem; ECU puts a ton of pressure on their top player for good reason. He's posted five-plus assists in nine games and has nine games with 15-plus points.

Newton's consistency is a big reason why ECU is a formidable offensive team. They've scored the most points in the AAC through two games and rank 144th overall in points per game (73.9). The Pirates like to let Newton run the entire show during the shot clock.

The guard hunts his spots well for high-efficiency scoring opportunities and finds contact nicely. He leads the team with 5.1 free throw attempts per game, just ahead of third-leading scorer Brandon Suggs (10.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists) and his 4.9 attempts per game.

ECU doesn't hit a ton of their two-point looks (48.4%, 273rd), but they do get to the line frequently (19.1 FTA/game, 105th) and cash in those opportunities (75.4%, 51st) when they can. The AAC's top scoring offense in conference play gets 19.5% of its points at the charity stripe (tied for 88th nationally).

The outside shot is very friendly to the Pirates as well. They shoot 36.7% as a team from deep (58th nationally) and senior guard Vance Jackson (10.9 points, team-high 5.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists) is the biggest reason for that efficiency.

The 6-foot-9 forward has the size to shoot over just about anybody, and that clear sightline has helped him hit 40.2% of his shots from three-point range this season. Of the Pirates 305 outside attempts, Jackson's taken 82 of them. Newton, Jackson, and JJ Miles (39.7% on 4.1 attempts) are the targets to cover outside the arc. Newton (35.3% on 4.9 attempts) is the one Cincinnati wants to see shoot—but he can still fill it up.

ECU has started the conference slate popping on the offensive end. Their two-point percentage is up to 56% (first in the AAC) while ranking second among AAC teams in three-point percentage (38.1%) and first in free-throw percentage (86.1%). It's just a two-game sample size, but ECU is also first in assists per game (21.5), which has been a strength this season thanks to...you guessed it: Tristen Newton.

I mentioned Newton's playmaking ability earlier as the Pirates leading assist man likes to use his scoring gravity to open up his teammates as well. On the season, the Pirates average 16.3 assists (41st nationally) and have leaned into a lot fewer contributors than Cincinnati for their best offensive mix.

Head coach Joe Dooley has found a groove with a nine-man rotation that streamlines 22-plus minutes for its six leading players. Tremont Robinson-White (7.4 points, 3.2 assists, 2.3 rebounds) rounds out that group, who are all averaging at least one assist per game. Dooley identified his best ball movers and is making sure those players get the most time orbiting Newton.

Cincinnati can look to the Temple game plan for what they need to on Wednesday. Victory starts with limiting Newton's time on the ball and not letting the Pirates get to their leading scorer late in the shot clock. Newton has a nice feel for off-ball defenders and likes to drift to the corners for open threes when he's not in control.

That's the biggest worry for Cincinnati and a tried and true way to pull off upsets. UC is allowing opponents to shoot 39.7% from outside in conference play after allowing 27.4% in the first 13 games of the season. Despite the positive raw offensive numbers for ECU, they should be taken with a large grain of salt.

The Pirates are ranked 334th in KenPom's strength of schedule metric and the offense has faced the 324th ranked slate of defenses.

Wednesday could mark a high-scoring affair at Fifth Third Arena, but if Cincinnati's going to contend in the AAC they need to make statements against a light stretch of opponents this month and that starts by exposing ECU's strong offense as nothing more than a fluke.

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