Cincinnati Bearcats guard Landers Nolley II (2) reacts to a foul call by the referee during the first half of an NCAA men s college basketball game on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022, at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati. The Bearcats defeated the Green Wave 88-77 with a crowd of 9,484. Tulane Green Wave At Cincinnati Bearcats Ncaa Basketball Dec 29 — © Stephanie Scarbrough/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Preview Paw Prints: Wichita State Shockers

Cincinnati has not won a road game, or a game when trailing at the half this season.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Jan 3, 2023 9:28 AM EST

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Cincinnati Bearcats

Wichita State Shockers

CINCINNATI — The UC basketball team (10-5, 1-1) is still in search of a road win this season, and they get another chance on Thursday against the Wichita State Shockers (7-7, 0-2).

Cincinnati has been nice and comfortable at home, but the top-40 offense hasn't translated in the two true road arenas they've played in this season.

The Shockers represent another great test on that front, ranking 50th in defensive efficiency and 105th overall on KenPom. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is down to 73rd on KenPom and is a slight 50.1% favorite on ESPN's Matchup Predictor.

UC is 106th in the NET ranking, and WSU is 133rd.

Cincinnati swept the season series last year—and cannot afford a third-straight road loss outside the NET top-100.

Road Rebounding

La Salle Explorers guard Khalil Brantley (5) grabs a rebound over Cincinnati Bearcats guard Daniel Skillings (0) in the first half of the NCAA men s basketball game at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati on Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022. Ncaa Basketball La Salle Explorers At Cincinnati Bearcats Ac — © Albert Cesare / The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The lack of frontcourt depth on UC's roster is getting magnified whenever they've had to travel this season. Viktor Lakhin can carry the full load when he stays out of foul trouble and keeps up his shooting efficiency.

Neither of those happened on Sunday, as Lakhin's foul troubles late in the first half—and sparked a 15-0 Temple run. UC went up 27-20 with about 7 minutes left in the first half and got outscored 17-2 while getting outrebounded 11-4. The house of cards toppled, and Wes Miller's team never led again.

Reinforcements aren't coming in this respect. John Newman III and Rob Phinisee aren't fixing any big rebounding issues—it has to become a team effort. One offensive rebound from the entire starting five won't cut it.

Overall, UC is an average rebounding team, ranking 137th in total rebounding, and 145th in rebound rate (51%). Yet, that latter mark falls to 44% on the road, and the 7% margin is making all the difference.

It's not like they aren't focused on the issue—Miller brings up rebounding to start seemingly every postgame press conference. The natural glass eater just hasn't surfaced behind Lakhin. It makes his in-game awareness that much more important.

The Russian cannot get in early foul trouble if UC wants to make the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Landers, Landing

Dec 29, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats guard Landers Nolley II (2) reacts after a play against the Tulane Green Wave in the first half at Fifth Third Arena. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports — © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Landers Nolley II is having his best college season during his first campaign in Clifton. He led all players in scoring (15 points) on Sunday to bolster 15.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game.

All of those averages are slightly lower than his scorching freshman season at Virginia Tech, but his efficiency has never been better. Nolley has earned career highs in true shooting rate (61.2%), effective field goal rate (58.4%), and box plus/minus (5.6).

All of that, while he sports just a 23.1% usage rate and the lowest turnover rate of his career (12.8%). Nolley has looked comfortable and dangerous offensively over the past few weeks and is joining Lakhin as the Bearcats' two most consistent players.

He's even blocking shots at his highest rate ever. The offensive focus is trickling to the other end, and he could afford to take more command when he has the ball.

Nolley needs to lead this team in three-point attempts.

He's easily the best shooter on the team (42.9% from deep) but trails Jeremiah Davenport (29.7% from deep) in outside shots by seven. JD is playing better everywhere this season besides his shot, but even so—the sample size is large enough to be very skeptical that his lowly 41.9% effective will turn around significantly.

Nolley is fourth on the team in usage rate but is playing like a guy who needs to be first.

Shocking Defense

Dec 31, 2022; Wichita, Kansas, USA; Wichita State Shockers guard Craig Porter Jr. (3) looks to set the play around East Carolina Pirates guard Javon Small (12) during the second half at Charles Koch Arena. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports — © William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

Across the board, WSU plays stifling defense on opponents. The top attribute is a great three-point defense (28.4%, 26th nationally) that will test a three-happy UC offense.

They allow just 61.1 points per game (29th) and don't have many weak links in any lineup. Forced turnovers, blocked shots, and limited free throws, WSU is top-70 at all of it while holding teams to the 14th-lowest field goal rate nationally (42.4%).

Senior guard Craig Porter (11.9 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 3.8 Ast) is the meanest defender of them all, leading WSU with an 88.2 defensive rating and a 1.98 defensive bayesian performance rating.

He steals 1.6 balls per game and has a nice 3.2% steal rate. Porter's eyes are always on the ball, and is a player Nolley, Mika Adams-Woods, and David DeJulius will have to keep tabs on all game offensively. The 6-foot-2 guard is an assassin inside the arc as well, shooting 60.2% on a team-high 6.4 two-point attempts per game.

One other player to watch is 6-foot-7 Georgia transfer forward Jaykwon Walton (11.7 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 1.6 Ast). The junior is pacing just ahead of Porter for the team rebounding lead and is one of the 10 best rebounders in the AAC this season.

Walton's efficiency is translating from Georgia after averaging just 7.5 minutes per game last season. The long forward can defend at a high level and picks his shots well (57.3 TS%, 12th in AAC). He can give opposing frontcourts fits and complements Porter well.

The game tips off from Kansas at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday. It is airing on ESPN2 or ESPNU and is available via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

Make sure you bookmark All Bearcats for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns and so much more.

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