Game Preview: UC Faces Road Test at Temple With AAC Hopes in the Balance

The Bearcats are 9-13-1 all-time agains the Owls.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Nov 17, 2022 12:43 PM EST

CINCINNATI — The No. 25 Bearcats (8-2, 5-1) have two tests to pass if they want to play for another AAC Championship. Temple (3-7, 1-5) is that next rung on the ladder—a team UC's historically struggled to beat on the road.

Temple enters this game as 17-point favorites on SI Sportsbook. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has UC winning 89.2% of the time, and Temple enters ranked 94th in net yards per play, to Cincinnati's No. 25 spot.

"You are trying to put in a little bit more of an emphasis on what you need to do and you want to make sure these guys understand that," head coach Luke Fickell said about these final games. "So that's what we really say, it's not like we're putting a sign up here and saying ‘Now the playoffs begin’ but it's just an understanding now that we have trained and we have done all these things to get to November, and to be in a position where November really matters and don't forget that November really matters.”

Let's look at some of the biggest storylines as UC goes for its 10th win in 24 tries against Temple.

*All line stats via Football Outsiders.

Wary Of Warner

Temple's top freshman talent is hitting his stride in November. QB E.J. Warner (2,334 yards, 13 touchdowns, nine interceptions) doesn't have crazy numbers on the surface, but he's been incredible this month after a slow start to his career.

The 19-year-old already passed P.J. Walker for most freshman passing yards in team history and leads the nation in passing this month (830 yards). He's averaging 8.7 yards per attempt on 72.6% completion to go with five TDs, no picks, and one sack in November.

Warner won't hurt UC with his legs like so many duel-threat weapons have this year, but he's playing with a ton of confidence.

"The quarterback’s only taken six sacks," Fickell said about Warner. "He's throwing the ball maybe 40 times a game, and that's over a long period of time. So really, really efficient at what they're doing. They’ve got great balance. For a young guy, he understands the game. He understands where his outlets are and what he needs to do if it's not there. You can see that. You can see the growth even from game five onwards.”

I'm interested to see how much man coverage UC plays against Temple. The Owls cannot run the ball like ECU did last week, making it more enticing to add an extra man in coverage on most downs.

Temple ranks 125th nationally with just 90.6 rush yards per game.

Giving the freshman more dynamic zone coverage looks could stop his hot month and slow down WR Jose Barbon—the team leader in catches (54, 37th nationally) and yards (727, 50th nationally).

D-Line Primed

The biggest mismatch in this game favors UC: offensive line vs. defensive line. The Blackcats front should have a field day with this run-blocking unit.

Temple is terrible in the ground game, any way you slice it. Of 131 FBS teams, they rank 130th in average line yards, 130th in power rushing success rate, and 112th in run stuff rate. UC ranks in the top 35 of all those metrics except power success (95th).

Saturday could be a big day for defensive tackle Dontay Corleone—similar to the high-tackle outing against Navy. The goal is to make Warner throw the ball 55-65 times and keep Temple one-dimensional with a season average of 3.2 yards per carry.

It would take a career day from Warner and multiple blown coverages to lose this game. I think the cover comes down to how well UC can pressure Warner in the pocket. Oddly enough, Temple protects him very well.

The Owls are eighth nationally in sack rate allowed and even better on passing downs (fifth in sack rate). The pressure built by Ivan Pace Jr. and Co. will go a long way toward how close this game is.

"(ECU quarterback) Holton Ahlers made a good play on fourth down," Jabari Taylor said about the team buckling down on Friday. "It’s a sickening feeling but at the end of the day, that’s the game. You’ve got to be able to move on. Some guys and some teams might not be able to handle that, start to break down, blame one another. Because of years of experience for myself, I know how to move on. I’ve been trying to lead these guys and show by example. We were able to do what we needed to do to get it done.”

(Special) Special Teams

The forgotten phase has been anything but in recent weeks. Special teams is the best part of this Bearcats program right now, and it carried them to a 27-25 win over East Carolina.

Jadon Thompson (three kick returns, 146 yards, one TD) is becoming a second weapon next to Tre Tucker, while Mason Fletcher and Ryan Coe are showing off money legs. Another strong performance out of that trio should give UC plenty of margin for error in Philadelphia.

Coe is cashing in over the past six weeks and now sits 18th nationally with 84 points this season. Since going 1-for-2 against Tulsa, Coe is 11-12 overall and 3-of-4 from 40-plus yards. He has also missed zero extra points this year (39-for-39).

“I mean, even when you give up a safety and you're going to let him go out there and just blast the ball as far as he can," Fickell said about Coe after the ECU win. "He's doing a great job, he struggled. I don’t know if he struggled and we didn't kick as much earlier in the year. You know, he was maybe a little erratic even in camp and beginning of the season. But you know what? He never doubted himself. He never was a guy that looked like he was pouting and never looked like he was having issues. He hasn't, he has the confidence about him, but I just always kind of figured he's going figure this thing out and he's going be a weapon for us and he has been.”

A weapon is right. UC hasn't had a kicker this reliable in the Fickell era, and he's been a big reason for the 8-2 record.

Fletcher's been filling the weapon mold for almost two full seasons now. The Ray Guy Award candidate is eighth nationally in punting average and fourth with 25 coffin corner punts.

His field-flipping has been massive during long stretches where the offense sputters—the final punt to the ECU 16-yard line was much-needed.

Overall, UC is sixth nationally in special teams Fremau efficiency, eighth in kick return eff., third in punt eff., and 19th in opposing FG eff. after blocking two kicks this season (t-26th nationally).

Special teams has come through in plenty of big moments and they'll need to a few more times to lift a third-straight AAC Title.

The game airs on ESPNU at 4 p.m. ET. Watch via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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