Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Keys to the Game: Indiana State NIT

The Bearcats face a hostile road environment this round.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Mar 25, 2024

In this story:

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Cincinnati Bearcats

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Robbie Avila

Aziz Bandaogo

Big 12 Basketball

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Indiana State Sycamores

Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats are in a familiar spot from this last year.

Their NIT fate hinges on a road win in a hostile environment. They dropped this type of contest against Utah Valley in 2023 and get to overcome another tough environment at Indiana State on Tuesday night at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Sycamores have won their opening games by nine and 12 points to take full control of their NIT region. Cincinnati will be a betting underdog for the first time in this year's NIT, entering with a 43.1% chance to win on the road.

The Bearcats are 3-1 all-time against Indiana State as they're ranked 38th in KenPom to ISU's 40th overall ranking.

When Indiana State Has The Ball

These are two very close teams with Indiana State entering 15-1 at home this season, having likely missed the NCAA Tournament because of that one loss.

Cincinnati's 15th-ranked adjusted defense has to be on full point with its man-to-man cues against the 18th-best adjusted offense in the country. The Bearcats' interior defense, led by Aziz Bandaogo has to be stifling against center Robbie Avila (17.1 Pts, 6.6 Reb, 4.0 Ast) and a rotation with five players averaging 10-plus points per game.

"Cream Abdul-Jabarr" has been one of the most fun players in the sport this season and can kill you at every level of the offense. He's a highly efficient half-court player posting a filthy 64.5% true shooting rate and 25.2 PER. The Sycamores own the best two-point offense in the country (62.7%) and he's the driving force.

Cincinnati has to keep him from slicing and passing inside and hope ISU is a little cold from outside to pull off the road win. Easier said than done, ISU has seven (!!) players hitting at least 34% of their threes on at least two chucks per game (38.1% as a team, 11th nationally).

There's no clear weakness in this offense, except for rebounding (162nd nationally). Cincinnati can work their advantages by staying strong inside and owning the glass on both ends like they have most of this season.

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

The Bearcats have a path to victory here if they can hit close to 10 threes on their end and own the glass. ISU opponents are shooting a decent 33.2% from outside this season (150th nationally) and have found holes in an adjusted defense ranked 100th nationally.

Physicality opens the most paths to success for Cincinnati as they hold a clear size advantage over this lineup. The Bearcats need to hunt their spots, attack the rim on both ends and muck this game up to disrupt the ISU offensive rhythm.

Half of the Sycamores' losses this season have seen Avila pick up at least four fouls, and they lost the one game he fouled out of (just 24 minutes played). Cut the head off the snake and hope. That's a good start, but the other four strong rotation scorers can still pick up the slack like they have in this tournament (Avila is 5-of-20 from the field in 2024 NIT).

Fouling has been an issue for ISU (16.4 per game, 218th) and it has to get spammed by Cincinnati to disrupt the flow. Can the 299th-ranked FT shooting team nationally hit enough to move on? They have to find a way because running with ISU isn't an easy way to take them out (Sycamores rank 38th nationally in pace).

Prediction: 80-79 Cincinnati

The Bearcats win a tight thriller that Avila fouls out of in the final moments for just the second time all season. Cincinnati goes 18-of-25 at the charity stripe and hits 10 threes to keep pace with the high-flying Sycamores and move on to the NIT Semifinals.

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