FCS Football Playoff Picture: Nov. 6 (Week 11)

After each week, we will look at each conference and examine which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2025 FCS playoffs with 11 automatic bids (conference winners) and 13 At-large bids.

“Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs, but must avoid slip-ups. “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the postseason.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 11.

Big Sky

Locks: Montana

Montana continues to win as one of the few true "Locks" in the field at 9-0 overall. The Grizzlies will be heavy favorites in their next two games and should be 11-0 going into the Brawl of the Wild against Montana State. The committee had them at No. 3, but it doesn't really matter, as the winner of the Cat-Griz game will almost certainly secure a Top 2 seed.

Should Be In: Montana State

Montana State stays in the "Should Be In" category after an impressive road victory over Northern Colorado. The Bobcats will move into "Lock" status with a win over Weber State on Saturday, securing their 8th Division I win. They were the No. 2 team in the committee's rankings this week, and will be a lock for a Top 2 seed if they win out.

Work To Do: UC Davis, Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, Idaho

UC Davis is now 6-2, with one loss against the FCS, after an upset loss to Idaho State. The Aggies are at a slight disadvantage compared to fellow at-large hopefuls because their Week 0 game was canceled, which means they have only 11 games. I think the magic number for UC Davis is eight wins, meaning they need to win two of their last three games, which won't be easy. The Aggies have a sneaky matchup against Idaho this weekend, before finishing the year with Montana State and Sacramento State. If they win all three, the Aggies will have a shot at a Top 8 seed.

Northern Arizona is the Big Sky team with the next best chance to make the field, but suffered a tough loss to Idaho on Friday night. At 5-4 overall, the Lumberjacks will need to win their final three games to be comfortable, which are games that they should be favorites in. If they suffer another upset loss, the Lumberjacks will be uncomfortable on Selection Sunday.

Sacramento State improved to 5-3 against FCS opponents and 5-4 overall with a win over Eastern Washington, which was eliminated following the loss. The Hornets need to win out to have a shot at an at-large bid, including wins over Idaho and UC Davis. Speaking of Idaho, the Vandals stayed alive with a win over NAU last weekend. The Vandals are 4-5 overall, 4-3 vs the FCS, and must win out to remain in the playoff picture. Sadly, even at 7-5, the Vandals aren't a lock and need help on the bubble.

Sacramento State Hornets running back Rodney Hammond Jr. (2) | Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: Monmouth

Monmouth continues to play and win despite the absence of star quarterback Derek Robertson. The Hawks will want to get him back as soon as possible, but they are nearing "Lock" status with eight Division I wins. A win over New Hampshire this weekend would secure their spot in the field. Monmouth is very much alive in the Top 8 seed conversation, especially if several top teams lose in Week 11.

Work To Do: Villanova, Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, William & Mary

Stony Brook was eliminated after a loss last week. Villanova remains in an excellent spot, improving to 6-1 against the FCS with a win over UAlbany. The Wildcats' only loss is to Monmouth, and they already hold head-to-head wins over William & Mary and Elon. They have tricky games against Towson and Stony Brook remaining, but one win in that stretch could solidify their spot in the field.

Rhode Island is 7-1 against the FCS, but has a bad loss to Brown on its resume. Add that to the fact that the Rams may not play a single playoff team all season, and they may need to win two of their last three games to secure a spot in the field.

Maine picked up a big win over Stony Brook, improving to 4-1 in CAA play and 5-2 against the FCS. The Black Bears need to win out to make the field, which includes games against Rhode Island and New Hampshire. Speaking of New Hampshire, the Wildcats also need to win out to receive an at-large bid.

William & Mary is the final playoff hopeful in the CAA, but remains a long shot due to its schedule. The Tribe has three winnable games remaining, but it's very likely they will not have a win over a team with a winning record on their resume. Even at 8-4 overall, they will need help on the bubble.

Ivy League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Harvard, Yale, Penn, Dartmouth

Harvard took another step toward securing the Ivy League auto bid and potentially an undefeated season with a win over Dartmouth. They remain the only team in the conference with a realistic shot to earn a Top 8 seed. Yale and Penn remain in the auto bid race with only one conference loss, but neither team has played Harvard yet. At this point, Dartmouth has a difficult path forward, needing a ton of help to make the field.

A 9-1 Harvard or an 8-2 Dartmouth would have a shot at sneaking into the field as an at-large. The Big Green have out-of-conference wins over New Hampshire and potential NEC auto bid Central Connecticut State. All four of the teams in this section play the bottom half of the league, and cannot afford an upset this weekend.

MVFC

Locks: North Dakota State

North Dakota State avoided an upset loss to Youngstown State in Week 10. The Bison are now 9-0 overall and have the best resume in the FCS. They are massive favorites to earn the No. 1 seed and could still have a Top 2 seed secured if they finish with only one loss.

Should Be In: South Dakota State

Things got a little tighter for South Dakota State after a shocking upset loss to Indiana State. The Jackrabbits still have some of the best wins in the country with four Top 50 wins, according to Massey, including a road win over Montana State. This gives them a chance to make the field at 7-5; however, a situation to monitor is the health and availability of quarterback Chase Mason. It appears he will return, but if, for some reason, he is unable to do so, and SDSU continues to struggle, the committee could exclude them from the field.

Work To Do: North Dakota, Youngstown State, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, South Dakota

Nobody helped its playoff stock more this weekend than South Dakota, which pulled off the upset over North Dakota. It was the first of potentially three must-win games, helping the Coyotes improve to 6-4 overall, but this team still has a ton of work ahead of them. They need two more wins to guarantee their spot, and it starts this weekend against SDSU. South Dakota may have a chance at 7-5 overall, but Lamar could play spoiler since the Cardinals hold the head-to-head win over the Coyotes.

As for North Dakota, the Hawks were in a position for a Top 4 seed last week, but now find themselves in a much trickier spot at 6-3 overall. If the Hawks lose this week to NDSU, the SDSU game to end the year could become a must-win to guarantee a spot in the field. North Dakota could solve all these issues with an upset win over NDSU on Saturday.

Southern Illinois and Youngstown State have a massive Week 11 matchup, which is a must-win if either team wants to be comfortable making the field. The Penguins already have four losses and have no quality wins outside of their victory over Illinois State. Southern Illinois will be uncomfortable on the bubble because of its non-Division I win. The Salukis have a tougher path with games against South Dakota and Illinois State remaining, while Youngstown State gets games against the bottom of the MVFC.

Illinois State is currently 6-3 overall and must avoid an upset against Indiana State on Saturday. The Redbirds would not have a good resume at 7-5, needing at least one win in their final two games against SDSU and Southern Illinois.

Youngstown State wide receiver Ky "Flash" Wilson (1) | Brendan Mullin-Imagn Images

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Central Connecticut State, Duquesne

Not much changed in the NEC race last weekend, other than Stonehill eliminating itself after a loss to Robert Morris. Duquesne had a bye week and can secure the auto bid with a win over Central Connecticut State in Week 12. Speaking of CCSU, they avoided an upset against a feisty Long Island team, and still control their own destiny.

OVC-Big South

Locks: None
Should Be In: Tennessee Tech

Tennessee Tech will make the jump to a "Lock" with a win over Eastern Illinois this weekend, giving the Golden Eagles their 9th Division I win. This team has had some tighter games recently, but continues to find ways to win. The Golden Eagles will certainly have their eye on a Top 8 seed and should secure one by winning their final two FCS games.

Work To Do: Gardner-Webb, UT Martin

Gardner-Webb barely remains alive for a playoff spot after a loss to Tennessee Tech. The Runnin' Bulldogs are 5-4 overall and need to win out to have a chance at an at-large bid, but will still need help on the bubble. UT Martin has no shot to get into the field as an at-large, but remains in this section because the Skyhawks control their own destiny to win the auto bid. The Skyhawks will need to win out, including a win over Tennessee Tech in the final week of the season.

Patriot League

Locks: None
Should Be In: Lehigh

There's an argument that Lehigh could be a "Lock" right now at 9-0 overall. The Mountain Hawks had a dominant win over Georgetown last weekend, but we remain conservative here, because if Lehigh were to lose out, its SOS and lack of ranked wins would put them in danger. However, even in that scenario, they have a fairly solid resume with wins over Duquesne, Yale, and Penn. This team remains the heavy favorite to win the Patriot League. They will be favored in their final three games and have a chance to earn a Top 4 seed with a 12-0 record.

Work To Do: Lafayette

Lafayette is the biggest threat standing in the way of its rival, Lehigh, in the race for the auto bid. The Leopards do not have a shot as an at-large team, but at 4-0 in conference play, they control their own destiny to win the Patriot League. The Leopards are 6-1 against the FCS after a win over Holy Cross. If they can pull off the upset over Lehigh, the Leopards will find themselves in the field, making them one of the biggest potential "bid thieves" in the country.

Pioneer League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Presbyterian, Drake

Drake and Presbyterian are the only teams in the Pioneer League with fewer than two conference losses. The Bulldogs control their own destiny for the auto bid, and do not play the Blue Hose. Drake still has two tough games against St. Thomas and Dayton remaining. Presbyterian also faces St. Thomas, but should be heavy favorites in its other remaining games.

Presbyterian may still have a case as an at-large bid. The Blue Hose have wins over Furman and Mercer, but they will need to continue winning in dominant fashion. The only things holding this team back will be the two non-Division I wins, and the win over Mercer came before the Bears made the move to Braden Atkinson. Even at 11-1, the Blue Hose need a ton of help to make the field.

SoCon

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Western Carolina, Mercer

Mercer and Western Carolina passed tough conference tests in Week 10, defeating Furman and Chattanooga. These two teams will face off this Saturday in a game that will likely decide the conference championship. Whichever team loses this game will still be alive for an at-large bid, but would have to win out against FCS competition to secure their spot.

The most interesting aspect of the conversation is that both teams underwent a midseason quarterback change, which significantly altered the course of the season. Will the committee be willing to overlook early-season losses because of this? If so, Mercer likely has a shot to push into the Top 8 seed conversation, while Western Carolina will likely have to make a run for one of the last seeds.

Southland

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Southeastern Louisiana, Stephen F. Austin, Lamar

The Southland race is down to three teams, all of which are currently 7-2 overall. Southeastern Louisiana and Stephen F. Austin are both 5-0 in conference play, and as a reminder, they do not play each other this season. Neither team has had a conference game finish within two scores. Southeastern remains undefeated against the FCS, though it lacks a signature win. SFA is 6-1 against the FCS, and its only loss is a competitive loss to Abilene Christian. Both teams may be penalized for a lack of quality wins, but are locks for a Top 16 seed if they continue to win.

Lamar dropped its first FCS game of the season last week against Incarnate Word. The Cardinals still have a solid resume, highlighted by a head-to-head win over South Dakota. The next few weeks will be crucial for this team, with games against SLU and SFA, as they control their own destiny. Losses in both games could put them in an uncomfortable spot on Selection Sunday. An 8-4 overall record would not guarantee them a spot in the field, but how Lamar looks on the field over the next two weeks may matter more than the result of the game.

Southeastern Louisiana running back Deantre Jackson (3) | Randy Bergeron (SLU Athletics)

UAC

Locks: Tarleton State

Tarleton State finally dropped a game this past weekend, losing to Abilene Christian on the road. While the loss hurts, Tarleton State still has a great resume with nine Division I wins, including an FBS win over Army, and a Top 30 SOS. The Texans also have five Top 50 wins, according to Massey, a number only Montana and NDSU can match. They must bounce back this weekend, but they still have a resume that could secure them a Top 4 seed.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Austin Peay, Abilene Christian, Southern Utah

Abilene Christian got a massive boost this weekend with a huge upset over Tarleton State. The Wildcats have four ranked wins, improving to 5-2 against the FCS. They control their own destiny to win the UAC auto bid, but with four losses, they can't afford to suffer another unexpected loss. ACU plays Utah Tech this week before ending the season with two tricky road games against Eastern Kentucky and Central Arkansas. This team may have the best chance to earn an at-large bid at 7-5 with two FBS losses and what will be a Top 10 SOS. However, the Wildcats won't want to leave it up to the committee.

Southern Utah pushed its winning streak to three games, defeating Austin Peay for a huge ranked win. The Thunderbirds will need to win out and may have an interesting resume if they were to finish 7-5 with wins over Abilene Christian and Austin Peay. However, the Thunderbirds would need a lot of help, and the loss to San Diego may ultimately keep them out of the field.

Austin Peay is now in a tough spot after its upset loss to Southern Utah. The Governors probably need to win out and beat Tarleton State to make the field, despite having an impressive 20-point FBS win over Middle Tennessee State. They would need some help at 7-5 overall, especially since they lost to the other UAC teams on the bubble in ACU and SUU.

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