Behind The Numbers: Week 1 FCS Football Preview

Our annual "Behind The Numbers" series returns here at FCS Football Central ahead of the 2026 college football season. You may be familiar with our Behind The Numbers recap each week, but we wanted to expand the series this year. We have added a preview series, which will spotlight the biggest games in each conference across the country.

Our goal with this new addition is to highlight teams every week and bring you what I think will be the most important statistic to monitor for that specific game. This isn't a comprehensive preview of the game; we will have that in another article each week, but it will allow me to give you important tidbits on a wide variety of games throughout the season.

No. 12 Tennessee Tech at Chattanooga

Can Chattanooga consistently move the chains and be efficient in the red zone?

Last season, Tennessee Tech beat Chattanooga 45-17 in a game that wasn't necessarily even that competitive. In order to pull off the upset, the Mocs will need to either slow this game down and control the time of possession or find a way to generate explosive plays. Chattanooga only managed 1 explosive play last week, while Tennessee Tech basically allowed no explosive plays against a very good Monmouth offense.

With Chattanooga unlikely to find success there, the Mocs will need to consistently move the chains and be very efficient in scoring areas. They were not very good in 3rd-and-long situations last week, ranking 76th nationally. It's going to come down to Kevin Lalin's ability to help this offense stay on schedule.

The other thing to watch is that Tennessee Tech posted great efficiency numbers on 2nd/3rd-and-long last week, but that's a tough formula to rely on. In this game last year, the Golden Eagles averaged over 6 yards per carry. Look for them to try to improve on their rushing performance from Week 0, when they ranked 74th nationally in rushing success rate.

No. 25 West Florida at Central Arkansas

Which team's offensive strength wins the day?

Both of these teams had excellent offensive performances in Week 0. They each finished with a 47% success rate, though they did it in very different ways. West Florida was dominant in the run game and the quarterback-designed run game. Central Arkansas did not have a high success rate on run plays, but was dominant on called passing plays. This includes passing plays where Donovyn Omolo broke the pocket and became deadly on scrambles.

Central Arkansas ranked 32nd in explosive plays, while the Argos relied on being methodical, ranking 102nd nationally. The potential problem for West Florida is that they allowed a ton of explosive plays against Southern Illinois, ranking 103rd in the FCS. On the other hand, the Bears played conservatively, not allowing explosive plays, but also did not generate many negative plays. Both defenses could be playing into the hands of the opposing offense. Whoever is able to better impose their offensive style will likely win the game this weekend.

No. 24 Western Carolina at Campbell

Can Western Carolina's defense consistently keep Campbell behind the chains?

Campbell was impressive offensively last week, led by experienced quarterback Kamden Sixkiller. The Camels posted a 47% success rate in a win over ETSU. Western Carolina was less consistent down-to-down (39%), but showed an ability to hit big plays, ranking 16th in explosive plays.

The X-factor in this game could be Western Carolina's rushing defense. The Catamounts were quite dominant against the run last week, while Campbell was not very good defensively. If Western Carolina's front seven can win frequently enough on early downs, keeping the Camels in 3rd-and-long situations, it will tip the scales in the Catamounts' favor.

Delaware State at No. 17 William & Mary

Will Delaware State's offense continue to create big plays?

Nearly all of Delaware State's 41 points last week came from explosive plays. The Hornets were able to do so in both the rushing and passing game. They ranked as the 5th-most explosive team in the country. However, when Delaware State was unable to create big plays, the offense did not look very good.

William & Mary played a bend-but-don't-break style against Villanova and allowed themselves the opportunity to create turnovers. Delaware State's ability to be explosive offensively will likely determine the outcome of this key non-conference matchup.

Weber State at Southern Utah

Can Weber State slow down SUU's rushing attack and keep them off the field?

Weber State picked up a great win over Northern Colorado last week, but the defense was not very good. The Wildcats ranked 98th in run-defense success rate, which is not a great recipe against a potent rushing attack at Southern Utah, featuring Will Burns and Floyd Chalk IV.

We saw how effective this group was at sustaining drives and wearing down an opposing defense. It led to some opportunities in the passing game for the Thunderbirds, which helped them finish with one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country (20th). Weber State has to find a way to slow down this rushing attack, especially with starting quarterback Devin Brown's availability in question.

Texas Southern at Prairie View A&M

Can Texas Southern keep pace with Prairie View A&M's offense?

Both of these teams excelled offensively in their Week 0 games. Texas Southern had a 47% success rate, which included an incredible 54% rushing success rate. Prairie View A&M was very good against Tarleton State, finishing with a success rate over 40% on the ground and through the air. The negative is that neither team looked very good defensively.

Prairie View A&M may have just been playing one of the best offenses in the country, so that's somewhat expected. The problem for Texas Southern is that they allowed a 53% success rate on the ground against NCCU. Prairie View A&M is going to score a lot of points in this game, putting pressure on Texas Southern to keep pace.

The other problem is that Texas Southern's offense is very one-dimensional. Cam McCoy is going to have to be effective in the passing game for the Tigers to have any shot in this matchup.

Gardner-Webb at Wofford

Which team can be more efficient on big, explosive plays?

There's obviously a big off-field storyline surrounding this game with Gardner-Webb firing head coach Kris McCullough. I'm sure that'll have some impact on the game, but I'm not going to speculate on which direction that may take. On the field, Gardner-Webb played better than last week's final score suggests. Their defense played well, holding Austin Peay to under a 40% success rate. The problem was that they allowed too many explosive plays through the air, which is understandable when facing Chris Parson.

Wofford was very good offensively down-to-down with one of the best offensive performances of the weekend, posting a 53% offensive success rate. However, they did struggle with turnovers and not executing in key moments. I think this game comes down to how quarterback Cole Pennington and JT Fayard play in crucial moments.

I don't see either team having much success on the ground, which means finding success on 3rd downs will be very important. Last week, GWU only went 3-for-13 on third downs last weekend. They are going to have to be way better against the Terriers if they want to win this game.

No. 11 South Dakota at Northern Colorado

Can Kenny Lueth and the UNC offense create any problems for South Dakota's defense?

These teams played a strange 24-17 overtime game last year in which Northern Colorado dominated the passing game, throwing it all over the field, while South Dakota was effective on the ground, averaging over 6 yards per carry. The Coyotes also held the Bears to 2.8 yards per carry, but I expect a very different game this season.

All things considered, South Dakota probably had the most impressive performances of Week 0. They were incredibly consistent, explosive, excellent on passing downs, and even though some may question the run game, they still ranked 34th nationally in rushing success rate. I expect this South Dakota offense to score points against a UNC defense that looked shaky against Weber State.

The real question is how effective Kenny Leuth and Mathias Price will be on the other side. The Bears had an excellent success rate of 49%, finishing with one of the best rushing offenses in the country (12th). Leuth was a big part of this, showing he can be very dangerous with his legs.

South Dakota's passing defense was excellent last week, but CCSU quarterback Brett Griffis did find occasional success on the ground. Can UNC find a way to keep the chains moving and hold onto the ball? That appears to be their best shot at pulling off the upset.

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