FSU Basketball set for first true test against reigning champion Florida Gators

The Florida State Seminoles are 2-0 in the Luke Loucks era, with dominant wins over Alcorn State and Alabama State. There were things to improve moving out of both games, but those improvements will be put to the test on Tuesday night, as FSU hits the road to face the reigning national champion: the rival Florida Gators.

Although Florida is replacing both pieces of their starting backcourt a year ago, every important piece from their frontcourt returned, which is going to lead to an interesting contract of styles. FSU is very perimeter oriented, wanting to put up more than 33 threes per game. Florida will play fast, but they want to dominate the paint.

Florida is undoubtedly the more talented team, but can FSU shoot well enough in this game to make it close? We're going to find out soon enough.

This game will be at 7pm EST on the SEC Network, live from the Exactech Arena at the Stephen O'Connell Center (it's still dumb to me that this isn't played the night before the football game anymore).

Nov 6, 2025; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden and Florida Gators guard Xaivian Lee (1) looks on during a timeout against the North Florida Ospreys during the second half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

#10 Florida Gators Breakdown (1-1 Overall)

Florida won their third men's basketball national championship last season, going 36-4 overall. And they returned some major key pieces, especially in the frontcourt: Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu, and Micah Handlogten. Those four combined to average 29 PPG and 25.1 RPG, including 9.5 offensive boards. That led them to be one of the five best offensive rebounding rates in the country last year.

The biggest difference is in the backcourt. Florida started Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard, and Alijah Martin last year, and all three of those players have moved on. Haugh is now starting at small forward, and the two guards that Todd Golden added to start are Xaivian Lee (Princeton) and Boogie Fland (Arkansas).

Lee is a cocky but talented player. He's already attempted 19 three-pointers in two games this season, but he's only made 5 of them so far. He was a 36.6% shooter last year at Princeton, but I wouldn't consider him an elite shooter. To me, he's far more dangerous when he gets downhill and attacks the basket. He's averaged over 20 PPG each of the last two seasons because he can get to the rim as fast as anyone. His sophomore season at Princeton compares favorably to Damian Lillard's sophomore season outside of the three-point shooting.

Fland is a former five-star who started his career at Arkansas, and the offensive game is still developing for him. He's a good defender, who has averaged over 1.5 steals per game for his career. He was woefully inefficient in his first season at Arkansas, shooting 37.9% from the floor and just 40.8% on twos. He's been better this year, although it's been just two games, as he's shooting 63.6% on twos. He's yet to make a three, which is kind of a theme with Florida so far, but his playmaking has been better since it doesn't all fall on his shoulders like it did last year at Arkansas.

This team has really struggled to shoot from the perimeter so far, as they're shooting just 22% from deep. That will bounce back at some point, but they also just don't have a lot of talented shooters. They're overloaded in the frontcourt, trying to make Haugh work at the 3, but I'm not sure if his shooting is real or not. He's about a career 73% free-throw shooter, and he's made 3 of the 10 threes he's attempted this season. That's probably realistic. And no one else in that frontcourt can shoot at all.

Urban Klavzar is supposed to bring shooting off the bench as a guard, but he's made 19 of his 60 career attempts, which is below average. This is going to be a team that thrives on the interior and dominates the glass for most of the season; the exact opposite of how FSU wants to play. They make up for that lack of shooting by playing REALLY fast, as they're having more than 75 possessions in a game so far, which is how FSU wants to play.

Florida State Seminoles head coach Luke Loucks watches from the sidelines. The Florida State Seminoles lead the Alcorn State Braves 58-44 at the half on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025. | Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (2-0 Overall)

Luke Loucks wanted a difficult non-conference schedule. FSU and Florida already played annually, but this is the first of three SEC teams that made the NCAA Tournament last year that the Seminoles will play, and the first of three Final Four teams.

One thing to look at to see if FSU's style of play will work against Florida is whether Alabama has had success over the last few years. Alabama's most recent teams have been more talented than Florida State's current roster, but it's at least a style indicator.

In the last two seasons, Alabama and Florida have played five times, with the Gators winning four of them, coming by an average of nearly 15 PPG. Alabama's one win came in overtime. In all of those games, Florida either held Alabama below 10 made threes or below 33% shooting from deep. In three of those games, both of those occurred. Teams haven't always been able to shoot well against Florida, so can FSU break the mold?

A big part of that is that FSU cannot be afraid of Florida's formidable frontcourt. Robert McCray V has done a good job of navigating to the interior so far this season, and he had a good game against UF last year while at Jacksonville (20 points, 6 rebounds), but he's going to need some help. FSU's offense can get into a rut when they aren't touching the paint first, so players like Kobe MaGee and Lajae Jones will have to be able to do that to either create shots for other or finish with strength at the rim.

This is also going to come down to backup guards Martin Somerville and Cam Miles being ready for the moment, because they'll need people who can consistently get downhill.

Tuesday night is also by far the biggest game of the season for FSU's frontcourt. It was the biggest weakness entering the season, and they haven't done much to ease any concerns. They won't play too many really strong frontcourts once they get into ACC play, so it wasn't as big of a priority (but it would've been nice if Egor Ryzhov would've been eligible to come over from Russia).

This is one of those games where it could come back to bite them, and a lot of pressure will be on Alex Steen and Alier Maluk. I don't expect Shah Muhammad to play in this game unless Steen and Maluk deal with foul trouble.

Projected Starters

Florida

G: Xaivian Lee
G: Boogie Fland
F: Thomas Haugh
F: Alex Condon
F: Rueben Chinyelu

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Kobe MaGee
G: Lajae Jones
F: Chauncey Wiggins
G: Alex Steen

3 Keys to the Game

Florida State's Three-Point Shooting

It's pretty safe to say that we've never seen a Florida State team that can shoot like this and wants to shoot a lot. But they're going to have to make a lot in this game to stay competitive against Florida. They were 18/47 against Alabama State, which is a LOT of three-point attempts. I think the sweet spot they want to stay in is 33-36 three-point attempts, and if they can still make 13-16 threes of them, that should be enough to at least keep them competitive.

Now, if Florida State wants to fire up 50 threes, then they need to make at least 20 of them. To shoot that many, it has to be efficient. We've seen the offense bog down when they get a little too confident in their three-point shooting, so as long as they're working for their open threes, that's fine. Just don't be firing away for no reason if it's not open.

Is FSU's Turnover Creating Legit?

The most surprising part of the season to me has been Florida State's ability to create turnovers, as they're currently forcing turnovers at a 24.6% rate. That's one of the better marks in the country, but that's obviously come against Alcorn State and Alabama State. Is that going to persist against the Gators?

And Florida has been iffy with protecting the ball in their first two games against Arizona and North Florida, with a turnover rate of 18%. Even UNF forced a turnover rate of 17.5%, which could be a realistic goal for the Seminoles. Thomas Bassong is a terror on defense, and FSU's guards are very handsy. They just have to make sure being handsy and trying to get turnovers doesn't lead to fouls and escorting the Gators to the free-throw line.

Rebounding

This is the part of the game that I'm the most concerned with. Florida's small forward, Thomas Haugh (6'9", 215 pounds) is basically the same size as Florida State's center, Alex Steen (6'9", 230 pounds). FSU's power forward, Chauncey WIggins, has never been known as a great rebounder throughout his career. Backup center Alier Maluk is still lacking the strength needed to go up against players like Rueben Chinyelu.

Through two games, Florida is rebounding 50% of their own misses. FSU actually isn't too far behind on that, collecting 40.3% of their misses so far, but the competition hasn't been the best indicator of that. And defensive rebounding has already been a small issue for the 'Noles.

I think for FSU to have any chance in this game, they have to keep Florida below a 35% offensive-rebound rate.

Game Prediction

Florida State opened as the underdog by 15.5 points with an over/under of 170.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

I think Florida's rebounding is going to be too much to overcome. It wouldn't surprise me at all if UF outrebounded FSU by 15-20 in this game, and that's just going to be due to personnel. Florida has also had a lot of success against the style of play that FSU wants to run in the past.

This will be an intriguing game, though. Florida State gave Alabama all they could handle in the exhibition game, but this is the first REAL test, especially being on the road. There's no easier way to win over Florida State fans than by beating Florida. I think that's a stretch for this first game, but I would take a competitive matchup, even if I think UF probably handles this game, unless they just go completely cold on offense. But this game could see 78-80 possessions, and it wouldn't surprise me.

Florida 95, Florida State 81

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