FSU Basketball starts ACC play with road test against No. 12 UNC Tar Heels

Florida State basketball got a much-needed week off after beating Jacksonville University on the Monday before Christmas. It's now time for conference play, and the start of ACC play is about to be difficult for the Seminoles.

It starts with a road trip to face the North Carolina Tar Heels on Tuesday evening, and UNC has only lost one game this season: a neutral-site game against Michigan State. Meanwhile, they've beaten Kentucky, Ohio State, and Kansas in non-conference play. That's a much different performance in non-conference play than FSU.

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST from the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on ESPN2.

Dec 20, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis on the sideline against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

#12 North Carolina Tar Heels Breakdown (12-1 Overall)

North Carolina is in their fifth season under Hubert Davis, and there is a lot of pressure on him. He had a Final Four run in his first season in 2022, but they've made the second weekend just once since. For a program like UNC, they expect better.

They're off to a really strong start this year, with wins over some big programs, even more impressive when you consider that their most experienced player, Seth Trimble, missed most of non-conference play with a broken arm. He returned for the last few games, which gives them an experienced guard. That's helpful when two members of their preferred starting five have never played college basketball before.

In the last decade, UNC has only finished with a better defensive rating than offensive rating three times. They're on pace to do that a fourth time, as they're holding teams to 40.5% on twos, 28% on threes, and they rarely foul their opponents. The only reason their defense isn't in the top five is that they do not force turnovers. They've only had two games where they force a turnover rate greater than 20%, which, for comparison, Florida State is forcing an average turnover rate of 22.9%. They've only forced 10+ turnovers in five games; Florida State has only one game forcing FEWER than 10 turnovers.

UNC is historically a VERY fast team, but they only have an adjusted tempo of 68.3 possessions per game, their slowest since Matt Doherty was the coach in 2003. They still play pretty fast on offense, but they make life HARD on defense, which is unusual for them. Their offense is still good, but it's not elite. They do a great job of taking care of the basketball, and they want to score on the inside.

Leading the way is true freshman Caleb Wilson, who is currently projected to go fourth in the latest Bleacher Report 2026 NBA mock draft. He thrives on the interior, only taking about one three-pointer per game. But he lives around the basket as a power forward, averaging 19.6 PPG and 10.8 RPG leading rebounder in the ACC), while also being an impactful defender with 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per game.

His frontcourt partner, Henri Veesaar, is right behind him in scoring, averaging 16.8 PPG and 9.2 RPG. He can stretch the floor as a 7-footer, shooting 50% from deep on 2.8 attempts per game, which can create interesting matchups. He started his career at Arizona, and last year, he averaged 9.4 PPG, so this is a massive jump for him.

Seth Trimble, who has only played in four games this year, is averaging 14.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 3.8 APG. He was their most important returner, and he's taken another jump up. He's still not a great shooter, but his playmaking has taken a huge step forward.

Montenegro native Luka Bogavac is their last scorer, averaging double digits, sitting at 11.1 PPG. No one on the team has taken more threes than him, but he's currently hitting them at a 32.3% rate. This is his role, though. He doesn't rebound much, and he takes more threes than twos. This is his first year in college after spending some time professionally overseas.

No one else is averaging more than 6.5 PPG, but here are some quick notes on key players. Former Colorado State guard Kyan Evans has been the starting point guard and leads the team in assists with 3.9 per game. Derek Dixon (45.5%, 2.5 3PA) and Jonathan Powell (34%, 3.8 3PA) are good shooters off the bench, and Jarin Stevenson has been a good forward off the bench.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (7-6 Overall)

How about this start to ACC play for Florida State? at UNC, vs. Duke, vs NC State. Those are three of the five best teams in the ACC, and you already know they're not going to get the benefit of calls against Tobacco Road schools, especially not with how FSU has been fouling this year.

Florida State's biggest enemy has often been itself this year. They're not that talented a team, so they have to do the little things well, and allowing teams to shoot 23.7 free throws per game and a free-throw rate of 39.4% isn't going to get it done in this stretch of games.

The rotation is probably going to shrink to a solid eight players in ACC play, so the starters are going to have to be that much better. Robert McCray V especially has to stay out of foul trouble. He's one of the nation's best playmakers in assist rate, but he's also the most capable player at getting downhill and finishing around the basket (which he still needs to be much better at).

Players like Chauncey Wiggins and Lajae Jones have to be much better than they've played recently. Jones started the season hot, but in his last eight games, he's averaging just 7.9 PPG while shooting 33.9% from the floor and 20.6% from three. This is the same player who tied the FSU record for threes made in a game. Hopefully, this week off helps him bounce back to form.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Martin Somerville
G: Lajae Jones
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

North Carolina

G: Kyan Evans
G: Seth Trimble
G: Luka Bogavac
F: Caleb Wilson
F: Henri Veesaar

3 Keys to the Game

Threes HAVE to Fall

Florida State has made it known that they're going to play this way, generating and taking a lot of threes. But they have to make them. If they're going to take 35 threes, they have to make 15 to be competitive in a game like this against a really good team.

The issue with that is that UNC has one of the best three-point defenses in the country. Teams are only shooting 28% from behind the arc against them, one of the 15 best marks nationwide. Only two teams have made 10+ threes against them, and they were still able to win those games. But for FSU to get offense going, it starts by making threes here.

Decide How to Play Transition Defense

Florida State has generally been a team that has crashed the offensive glass this year (to mixed results), which can leave them susceptible to easy outlet passes for teams to get easy buckets. However, UNC's one loss came in the one game where they allowed their opponent to rebound 40% of their misses. It'll be hard to do that against a much bigger frontcourt, but it could be something to monitor.

However, UNC WANTS to play fast. Florida State does too, which is why I doubt they'd do this, but if they want to focus on getting three people back on defense every time, they could make UNC uncomfortable on offense. Again, I don't expect that to happen, but it's something to consider.

Make UNC's Starters Play on the Perimeter

North Carolina's projected starting five of Evans, Trimble, Bogavac, Wilson, and Veesaar are shooting a combined 61/178 from deep this year. 34.2% from three. Their best shooter percentage-wise is their center, Veesaar, who is making 50% from deep on a little less than three attempts per game.

Everyone else hasn't shot the bell well. Bogavac is absolutely a threat, but UNC will dominate you if you let them operate inside the arc. FSU's defense can be leaky. They need to be up for the challenge in this game.

Game Prediction

North Carolina opened as a favorite by 15.5 points with an over/under of 160.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

North Carolina wants to play fast on offense, and few teams play faster than Florida State. And I think that's going to end badly for FSU. UNC is usually known as a high-powered offense, but it's their defense that makes them so good this year. That is why I think the Tar Heels run away with this game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UNC 99, Florida State 72

Stick with NoleGameday for more FREE coverage of Florida State Basketball throughout the 2025-26 season

Follow NoleGameday on and Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok

More Florida State News

FSU football reaches 15 portal departures as roster turnover continues

Five offensive players FSU football must retain for the 2026 season

FSU football could land quarterback transfer from rival

FSU football losing former top running back recruit to transfer portal