Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Clemson Tigers

Florida State is coming off one incredible upset earlier in the week, coming back from down 16 to beat Wake Forest on the road on Tuesday. Saturday brings its own challenge as the Clemson Tigers come to Tallahassee for an early afternoon tip.

These teams have already played once this season, with Clemson coming away with a 77-57 win about a month ago. Since they've already played twice, it's not as much about learning about the teams but more about what they've done since. You can read my original preview HERE.

This game is a noon tip on Saturday on the CW Network, live from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Clemson Tigers Breakdown (20-5 Overall, 12-2 ACC)

Clemson guard Chase Hunter (1) shoots for three points near Georgia Tech guard Naithan George (1) during the first half at Littlejohn Coliseum in Clemson, S.C. Tuesday, February 4, 2025. | Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Since beating Florida State on January 11th, Clemson has gone 7-1, with the only loss coming at home in triple overtime to Georgia Tech (GT has found some footing recently, winning three of their last four against Clemson, Louisville, and Stanford). In that time, they've dominated North Carolina, handed Duke their third loss of the season in a thriller, and beat Pitt on overtime on the road. Every other game they've played really hasn't been close.

Viktor Lakhin was the difference maker against Duke, putting up 22 points on just 12 shots, while Ian Schieffelin had a double-double next to him. Schieffelin has had some issues playing against FSU in the past, scoring two points in the last matchup, and he's coming off a game with just five points and 10 rebounds against UNC on Monday. He'll likely be extra motivated in this matchup, but in seven career games against the Seminoles, he has 15 points in 131 minutes. He's been able to bring down boards, but scoring has not been his strong suit.

The opposite goes for Chase Hunter, who is averaging 19.8 PPG in his last five games against the Seminoles. The sixth-year guard has been able to handle Florida State's pressure for a few years now. He was in a little bit of a shooting slump before going 4/8 from deep against UNC on Monday, and he's always been able to get his shot off against FSU.

Clemson has put Chase's brother, Dillon, in the starting lineup, opting to bring Chauncey Wiggins off the bench. This gives them some more versatility since they really don't use their bench too much, and Wiggins is a bigger wing at 6'10". But after playing 47 minutes in that triple-overtime loss to Georgia Tech, he played just 11 minutes against Duke and 16 against UNC.

This is still arguably the second-best team in the ACC, capable of beating anyone on any given night. Their slower tempo gives FSU fits, and their offense is lethal enough to handle any type of pressure.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (15-9 Overall, 6-7 ACC)

Florida State Seminoles guard Justin Thomas (25) with a final dunk against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the second half at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Florida State is showing some fight in the final games of Leonard Hamilton's tenure. The Notre Dame win was a nice one to get back on track, but the Wake Forest win was a surprising one, especially for someone in attendance like I was.

Once the Seminoles went back down by 16 with 8:22 to go, I figured the game was over. That's a massive deficit to overcome with not a lot of time, but they slowly started to chip away. It started with a 9-0 run with four different players getting buckets, but then Jamir Watkins fouled out with 4:50 to play. He's been the team's offensive engine almost the entire season, and it felt unlikely they'd be able to make up a nine-point difference.

But the game really swung on two three-pointers by Justin Thomas, who came in for the disqualified Watkins. It was great ball movement that had Wake Forest confused as Thomas initially caught the ball in no man's land, passed it out, then relocated for an open corner three (1:08:10 mark).

But the game-changed was the following sequence. Hunter Sallis goes to the line and sinks both, but Thomas was chilling on the other end for a kick-ahead corner three from the exact same spot. That cut the lead to one possession and the game was on.

Taylor Bol Bowen's shot to take the lead with less than 20 seconds to go was crucial, too. But a lot of credit needs to be given to Daquan Davis. Watch him jump, act like he's passing to the rolling Malique Ewin, which sucks in the extra defender, and allows Taylor Bol Bowen to step into a wide open three.

FSU was down 14 at halftime and then THIS SEQUENCE happened to win the game 😱

HUGE WIN FOR THE NOLES 🍢🔥 @FSUHoops pic.twitter.com/QvcZSeHKvV
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) February 13, 2025

I don't know what Ty-Laur Johnson was thinking on his shot attempt. They were down one with plenty of time, and he pulls up from six feet behind the line as a 20.9% three-point shooter for his career? Ambitious, to say the least. I'm not mad at FSU taking the open dunk when it's there. Take the points. I still think the foul on Hildreth was on the floor, but FSU got lucky with him missing the first one. Better to be lucky in a win than unlucky in a loss.

Their schedule isn't easy the rest of the way: vs. Clemson, vs. Miami, at Louisville, vs. UNC (on a Monday), at Duke, at Virginia, vs. SMU. UNC is arguably the third-worst team there. FSU wants to send Coach Hamilton out on a high note, but they're going to have their work cut out for them.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Daquan Davis
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Taylor Bol Bowen
F: Malique Ewin

Clemson

G: Jaeden Zackery
G: Chase Hunter
G: Dillon Hunter
F: Ian Schieffelin
F: Viktor Lakhin

3 Keys to the Game

3-Point Defense

Florida State was torched from behind the arc in the first matchup between these teams, as Clemson shot a lethal 13/28 from deep. ACC teams have had success from three against FSU, but they'll want to do a better job in this game. Of the five losses Clemson has, four came when they shot 33.3% from deep or worse. Any success for FSU starts there.

Chase Hunter

Hunter had a big game against Florida State in Clemson, going for 25 points on 8/14 shooting, including 5/9 from three. It isn't lost on me that in the three games this season that he's scored more points in, Clemson has lost, but I think FSU needs to focus on getting the ball out of his hands. Clemson has also lost the two games where he had 4+ turnovers, and that feels like something FSU is capable of doing, even if he's had success against the 'Noles in recent years.

Get to the Free-Throw Line

Florida State did a good job of getting to the free-throw line in the first matchup, with a free-throw rate of 30.6%, but they can get there more often. Only three players attempted free throws in that game, and Jamir Watkins only had three attempts. If they can get this into the 35-38% range, they'll give themselves a much better chance. And it starts with Watkins being more aggressive and not settling for jump shots.

Game Prediction

Clemson opened as 4.5-point favorites with an over/under of 143.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

It's going to be tough for FSU to win this game. Experienced backcourts tend to have success against them, and Clemson's is one of the most experienced in the country. Chase Hunter has had consistent big games against the Seminoles, and I don't see any reason for it to be different in this game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Clemson 71, Florida State 62

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