Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators

We've reached the final game of the regular season for Florida State, and there's a decent chance that it's the final game of the season, period. They have to win this last game against the Florida Gators to make a bowl game, and although Florida has been bad this year, FSU has just been incompetent on the road.

Florida has nothing left to play for at this point. They fired Billy Napier over a month ago (must be nice), and are nowhere close to making the postseason. It's safe to say that neither team has had the season they imagined when it started.

This game will be at 4:30 p.m. EST on ESPN2 from "The Swamp" - Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - in Gainesville, Florida.

Nov 1, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell walks on the field before the game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Seminole Headlines

Mike Norvell Returning For Another Season

Florida State made the decision to go ahead and announce that head coach Mike Norvell will be returning for the 2026 season, much to the dismay of a lot of fans. The timing of it made little sense, even if it was always trending in this direction that he would return. If he wasn't going to be fired after the Stanford game, it would've taken them losing out for him to be fired.

But it was a little strange that they announced it after a loss in which FSU muffed two punts in the final five minutes, and before a rivalry game against Florida. Either do it after the Virginia Tech win or wait until after the regular season.

As much as Norvell has done to not deserve to be the head coach anymore, there were a lot of things pointing to him being retained. First was the buyout. I'm pretty certain Florida State could have raised the funds to buy him out, but it's a lot of money to get rid of him and his staff, then buy out another coach elsewhere. And then when you combine that with the current coaching market, you can see how FSU reached this decision.

LSU, Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Virginia Tech, UCLA, and plenty of other jobs have already opened (Virginia Tech has since been filled by James Franklin, who while he's better than Norvell, wasn't worth the money it would take to get rid of Norvell; Oklahoma State has hired North Texas' Eric Morris).

LSU and Florida's top option is Lane Kiffin, who is probably going to get a $100 million contract despite never even making a playoff game. Another top option is Tulane's Jon Sumrall, and I find it hard to believe that FSU wants to go down the Group of 5 coaching route again.

There just isn't a good option to sell fans on, much less convincing boosters and donors to cough up that kind of money. FSU will be one of the biggest lame duck situations in sports next year, which is a tough pill to swallow.

Road Woes Continue

FSU has only played four road games. Despite out-gaining their opponents in every one of those games, they're 0-4, and are only scoring 18 PPG in those games. If you take out the Virginia game, they're only averaging 11.3 PPG.

The team just continues to find new ways to shoot themselves in the foot, and they did it in a way that I've never seen against NC State, where a bad punt ricocheted off an FSU player's helmet, who was trying to get out of the way, the defense gets another stop, and then Squirrel White muffs the next punt.

It was truly unbelievable, but this team found a way to make it realistic. They'll now try to fix those issues in The Swamp, because everything always goes so well there.

A Stoppable Force Meets a Moveable Object

Something is going to have to give in this game. Florida State is 0-4 on the road this year, and Florida is 0-4 since Napier was fired, as interim HC Billy Gonzales searches for his first career win. Surprisingly, going from one Billy to another Billy hasn't worked. But someone will pick up their first win in this game.

Nov 22, 2025; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway (2) runs with the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Three Burning Questions

What's at Stake for Florida?

Florida enters this game with a 3-8 record. It would normally be a joy to watch them be this pathetic, but FSU hasn't been much better. They've been bowl ineligible for a few weeks now, and a win does nothing for the program at first glance.

However, a win would at least tie their record from 2013, while a loss would give them their fewest wins in a season since their 0-10-1 season in 1979. Safe to say they want to avoid that and work on retaining their top talent.

Running back Jadan Baugh is also 96 yards away from cracking 1000 yards on the ground. No Gator has rushed for more than 1000 since Kelvin Taylor in 2015. FSU allows 143.8 rushing yards per game on the road, so there's more than a decent chance he breaks that.

Is Florida State's Defense Quietly Improving?

Tony White's defense has been a punching bag for FSU fans this year, but they have quietly been playing mostly well the last few weeks. They're only allowing 16.5 PPG and just a smudge over 300 yards per game. They're not the reason FSU has lost games to NC State and Clemson.

They've also forced four total turnovers in those games, which was a pain point last year (everything was a pain point last year, but I digress). The personnel still isn't the best for this defense, but they are at least playing better.

What Changes Are Coming for FSU After This Game?

Florida State's Norvell announcement makes no sense, because the Seminoles could come out and lose this game 100-3, and there would be no repercussions. We do know that there will be changes in the front office, which means Darrick Yray could be gone as the general manager, and that was overdue anyway.

But the team also needs to revamp its scouting department and entire front office, in general. A lot of college teams that have found success around mediocre head coaches (Oklahoma) by revamping into NFL-style front offices. FSU may need to do the same.

Game Forecast

Someone had to be favored in this game, and Florida is currently the favorite by 1.5 points with an over/under of 50.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

There is no one on this site, and probably on the beat, who hates the Florida Gators more than me. We try to take emotion out of picks, but it's hard not to. Trying to decide which dam breaks between FSU picking up its first road win of the season, and UF picking up its first win under an interim coach is about impossible.

I picked FSU to be 5-7 before the season, and a loss here would match that. And as much as it pains me to do so, I do think a team that got blown out by Kentucky will beat Florida State in a real ugly contest.

Florida 16, Florida State 13

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