NoleGameday staff score predictions for FSU football at Florida Gators

The Florida State Seminoles are one day away from kicking off what could be their final game of the 2025 season. FSU will be on the road in a hostile environment for its annual rivalry game against the Florida Gators on Saturday afternoon.

It's been over two years since the Seminoles won a true road game. Perhaps there's a glimmer of light in the darkness, as Florida State's last road win was over the Gators in Gainesville.

Though Florida leads the all-time series 38-28-2, FSU has won five of the last seven meetings in The Swamp. The Seminoles will need to come away with another win to extend their season.

Our staff at NoleGameday provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Gators.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

This hasn't been an easy year to predict. A different Florida State team is bound to show up each week. I did have the Seminoles finishing 6-6 in the preseason, but this certainly isn't the way I saw them getting there.

In a rivalry game that normally means a lot in the college football world, the 2025 edition feels like we all stepped into a time machine.

Four years ago, Florida State started the season 0-4, including a loss to FCS Jacksonville State. However, the Seminoles climbed back and were 5-6 going into the regular-season finale in Gainesville. Head coach Mike Norvell needed a win against an interim coach to salvage the year and make a bowl game.

Instead, FSU lost 24-21 in an ugly showing in The Swamp. The season came to an unceremonious end as the Seminoles were sent home.

Flash forward back to the present. Florida State lost four straight games earlier this year. The streak of defeats included a head-banging result against Stanford on the West Coast.

This team can't win on the road. It's been over 732 days since the Seminoles came out on top in a true road game. Why should anyone believe that will change with what we've seen? After all, it's year six under Mike Norvell, and Florida State's in the same boat, maybe even worse, than when he started.

FSU's administration rallied around Norvell, bringing him back for another year. While some players are still fighting, I'm not sure how fully bought in the entire team is at this point.

Florida wins in a close one and makes the flames even Tallahassee grow even hotter.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 4-7

Gators 19, Seminoles 16

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

This one, I’m getting a little wild with it. I do think FSU wins and becomes bowl eligible, but some crazy things will happen in order for that to happen. Let’s start with a Darrell Jackson fumble six. Next, we’ve got a Jerry Wilson pick-six. He finally did it! He’s had numerous chances this season, but saved it for last in the Swamp.

Moving forward, we’ve got a Jake Weinberg 54-yard FG. And lastly, but certainly not least, on the third reverse sweep of the game, Micahi Danzy takes it to the crib for a touchdown. This Florida team stinks. But also does Florida State when they leave one mile off their campus the last two seasons. But, this time, they somehow squeak out a win, and we get to see another game!

2025 Season Prediction Record: 4-7

Seminoles 24, Gators 18

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

There is no one on this site, and probably on the beat, who hates the Florida Gators more than me. We try to take emotion out of picks, but it's hard not to. Trying to decide which dam breaks between FSU picking up its first road win of the season, or UF picking up its first win under an interim coach is about impossible.

I picked FSU to be 5-7 before the season, and a loss here would match that. And as much as it pains me to do so, I do think a team that got blown out by Kentucky will beat Florida State in a real ugly contest.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 5-6

Gators 16, Seminoles 13

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

We’ve reached the end of yet another season of Florida State Football, and it’s going out without much fanfare. After officially announcing Mike Norvell’s 2026 return, the Seminoles turn their focus towards becoming bowl eligible against in-state rival Florida before undertaking a widespread restructuring of the front office.

The Gators are experiencing their own loss-ridden season, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel for the school down south, as their coaching search heats up. With not much to lose outside of a single game, the Gators will look to turn the page with the kind of momentum that comes with a rivalry win.

On paper, Florida State is statistically strong enough to beat UF. But, the on-field product has confounded week in and week out. Consistency has been absent for Norvell’s squad, and performances on the road have been lackluster to say the least.

Florida State is teetering between bowl eligibility and another losing season, and Saturday’s contest against a formidable opponent will be a difficult challenge. The Seminoles will have to travel to a hostile Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and somehow walk out with a win.

Despite the record, the Gators have a plethora of talent on their roster; surely enough to spoil FSU’s “postseason” hopes. Given the track history of road games as of late, I’m not inclined to believe the ‘Noles are capable of leaving Gainesville with a victory, either.

Regardless of what happens, it’s well past time to turn our focus to hoops season anyway.
Take it away, Veazey.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 4-7

Gators 28, Seminoles 13

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

Florida State has not performed well on the road this season and will head to Gainesville for its final regular-season matchup. There isn’t much pointing to an FSU win at the moment other than the fact that UF is operating with an interim head coach and a quarterback riding a true crapshoot of a season.

The Gators are currently 1.5-point favorites at home, and FSU will be fighting for bowl eligibility. Pragmatism aside, a ditch-effort performance in The Swamp might be in store, and rivalry games tend to ignore the script anyway.

The 50.5-point total follows a familiar theme for FSU this year, and last weekend showed just how far off projections can be for this team. Oddly enough, the FSU–Alabama line opened with the exact same spread and was one of the few instances Vegas came close to nailing it (aside from Alabama losing outright as 13.5 favorites).

If the Seminoles start fast and actually keep their foot on the gas, they can win, but given how inconsistent they’ve been, the safer play is the odds.

FSU hasn’t consistently supported its high-powered offense across an entire four quarters.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 5-6

Gators 31, Seminoles 21

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

It's hard to have high expectations for this game, given the current poor state of both programs. The Gators are without a head coach and have yet to win a game under interim HC Billy Gonzales, and as much as I want to believe their poor performance in recent games will be on full display Saturday afternoon, the Seminoles have also not won a true road game since November 25, 2023, ironically in their 24-15 win over UF.

The Wwamp is notoriously a hard place to play, and as much as I know that FSU has the talent and has played the level of football needed to walk out with a victory, I also know that this team has made countless mistakes on the road, digging itself into an inescapable hole.

If this game were in Doak, I would see no reason to pick against the Seminoles, even knowing the Gators would be bringing the best version of themselves into Tallahassee, but that's just not the case. Ultimately, I think that Florida State will once again fail to execute when the game is on the line and fall short of a victory in a close loss to finish the season.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 4-7

Gators 21, Seminoles 18

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

Strangely enough, I have predicted FSU to win every road game this year. They haven’t won a single one. With this in mind, Seminoles fans will be happy to know that I am predicting the Gators to edge out the ‘Noles on Saturday afternoon. Both teams this season have been bit with Jekyll and Hyde personas, and you never know which team you’re going to get.

FSU simply can’t get it done on the road. I’m not entirely sure what the cause of this problem is, but it’s affected the team since 2024. Moreover, UF has absolutely nothing to lose. With only 3 wins to their name, they’re not fighting for a bowl game, their coach’s job, or any other reason. Their only goal on Saturday is to beat a rival.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 5-6

Gators 31, Seminoles 23

CONSENSUS: Florida (6-1)

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