FSU Basketball hoping losing streak ends as they face UMass in Orange Bowl Classic

Florida State and Luke Loucks had a week off after their third straight loss, an 82-67 loss to Houston in a well-fought effort. Even though it was a double-digit loss, they out-rebounded a Houston team that had only been out-rebounded in one other game. FSU was missing Alex Steen, had been a poor rebounding team most of the year, and still put up a promising performance on the boards.

The schedule gets a little easier from here, as the Seminoles will play in the Orange Bowl Classic against UMass early on Saturday afternoon. This is easily the best team that UMass will have played to this point in the season, and while they are coming off a win over a different ACC team, this may be a tough test for them.

This game will be at 12 p.m. EST on the ACC Network, live from Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida.

Dec 6, 2025; Houston, TX, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Luke Loucks reacts during the first half against the Houston Cougars at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

UMass Minutemen Breakdown (7-3 Overall)

If Florida State facing UMass sounds familiar, it's because it should be. These two played last year in the Hall-of-Fame Tip Off, with FSU coming away with a big 92-59 win. But just three UMass players who played in that game are still on the roster, which is just how college basketball is these days. In fact, their starting center in that game, Shah Muhammad, is now at FSU.

This is a better UMass team. Frank Martin, who once led South Carolina to a Final Four in 2017, has a better collection of talent, led by Marcus Banks Jr. and Leonardo Bettiol.

Banks spent the last two years at UMBC but has actually increased his scoring in this move up to UMass, averaging 18.4 PPG while shooting an impressive 39.8% from three on nearly nine attempts per game. 88 of his 140 shot attempts have come from behind the arc, which makes him one of the more dangerous shooters in the country.

Leonardo Bettiol is a similar story. The 6'8" forward out of Italy was fine for Abilene Christian last year, but has increased his production to 16 PPG and 8.1 RPG. He only averaged 3.9 RPG last year, but he's more than doubled his defensive rebound rate.

K'Jei Parker has moved to the bench for the last few games, but he's really the only other shooter to be concerned about on the team. He's shooting 40% from deep on 4.5 attempts per game. No one else on the roster takes more than 2.1 per game. Parker also started his college career at Florida A&M, so he may want to stick it to another Tallahassee team.

They do employ another strong forward: Daniel Hankins-Sanford. He was on the team last year, and he was pretty bad against FSU, finishing with just 4 points in 32 minutes, but he did have 10 rebounds. He'll want a better performance this time around. Neither Hankins-Sanford or Bettiol are three-point shooters, so the 'Noles will need to defend the interior against those two.

UMass runs a tight 7-8 man rotation. Outside of those four main players, you'll need to know two others, for sure. Freshman Danny Carbuccia has been promoted to the starting lineup and is averaging over five assists per game. The other starter, Jayden Ndjigue, is averaging over 1.5 steals per game and is a good rebounder for a wing. They also have freshman Dwayne Wimbley Jr., who was committed to FSU for a while before Coach Loucks took the job.

UMass does a great job controlling the boards, holding teams to an offensive rebound rate of just 25.2%. They also bring down 36.4% of their own misses, another great mark. The most impressive thing about them is their three-point defense, as they're holding teams to 26% from behind the arc. They have played some teams that are naturally bad shooters, but that hasn't been the case for every game.

They do play sloppily with the ball, though. They force a turnover rate of 19.5%, which is high, but they also turn it over 19.5% of the time (yes, that is real). They also foul a LOT, so this game could have a lot of free throws.

Dec 6, 2025; Houston, TX, USA; Florida State Seminoles forward Thomas Bassong (3) reacts after a play during the second half against the Houston Cougars at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (5-4 Overall)

Florida State went with a different starting lineup against Houston, inserting Martin Somerville, Thomas Bassong, and Alier Maluk in place of Kobe MaGee, Chauncey Wiggins, and Alex Steen. Bassong and Maluk held their own, and I'd like to see them get more playing time. Coach Loucks has said he's going to continue tinkering with the starters until he finds a combination that really works, and that won't change after a third straight loss.

Steen is dealing with a minor groin injury that should've kept him out against Georgia, but then did keep him out against Houston. He was close to playing like week, but they're going to play it safe while he recovers.

After a stretch of shooting awfully, they at least shot decently against Houston, but not well enough to come away with that win. Luckily, no defense in college basketball is as physical or as swarming as Houston's, so it'll only be easier moving forward.

But for FSU to win games moving forward, especially once ACC play starts at the end of the month, they have to make more shots. It's as simple as that. Turnovers were the bigger problem against Houston, something that hasn't been a problem for FSU for most of this season, but very few teams play the way Houston does, so that'll help.

Projected Starters

Florida State (subject to change)

G: Robert McCray V
G: Kobe MaGee
G: Lajae Jones
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

UMass

G: Danny Carbuccia
G: Marcus Banks Jr.
G: Jayden Ndjigue
F: Daniel Hankins-Sanford
F: Leonardo Bettiol

Keys to the Game

Three-Point Differential Matters...

UMass has shot 33% from three this year, but that's a little misleading, as they've only had one game this season where they shoot in the 30-39% range from deep. Six of their games have been below 30% (including all three of their losses), and three of their four wins (including the one against Boston College) are above 43%. Marcus Banks and K'Jei Parker are easily their two biggest threats from deep. FSU's defense needs to know where Banks is at all times.

But UMass has also been one of the better three-point defenses this year, holding teams to 26% from deep. Only two teams have shot better than 33.3% from three against them, and Boston College went just 3/23 in this matchup. Florida State wants to shoot a lot of threes and make more than they've been making recently, but they'll have a tough task here.

...But You Have to Defend the Interior

UMass has two strong threats to score in the interior in Leonardo Bettiol and Daniel Hankins-Sanford. Bettiol is averaging 16 PPG, and 102 of his 104 shot attempts have come inside the arc. Hankins-Sanford is very similar, with 41 of his 42 made field goals being twos. Florida State's defense also has to be prepared for the high-low these two bring from time to time.

Control the Turnovers

UMass both turns it over at a 19.5% rate while forcing a turnover rate of 19.5%. FSU has mostly been good about controlling its turnovers, but the last game against Houston was a little concerning. If they can get back to how they were in the early part of the season, where they're generating a lot of turnovers and taking care of the basketball, it's a big battle to win.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 11.5 points with an over/under of 159.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

I think Florida State bounces back here. It's going to be another fast-paced game. Both teams are going to try and force a lot of turnovers, and FSU should be better prepped for that after facing Houston. Gimme the 'Noles to get back on the board with a win.

Florida State 83, UMass 71

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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