5 Key Stats That Could Define Illinois Basketball's 2026 NCAA Tournament Run

Just one sleep stands between Illinois and its 2026 NCAA Tournament opener, a matchup against 14th-seeded Penn in Greenville, South Carolina (8:25 p.m. CT, TNT). The Illini are the No. 3 seed in the South Region, and appear to have the pieces for a deep run. Whether they can actually put one together may rely on the five statistics below – and Illinois' ability to optimize them when it matters most.

5 crucial Illinois stats ahead of March Madness

Mar 13, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) grabs a rebound against the Wisconsin Badgers during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

The average rebounding margin in Illinois’ favor: 9.6

The Illini have been anything but impressive on the glass of late, but that doesn’t change their season-long trend of dominating the majority of opponents in that department. Illinois’ plus-9.6 average margin on the boards ranks seventh in the country and second among Big Ten teams.

Heading into the NCAA Tournament, Brad Underwood is undoubtedly putting a huge emphasis on his team winning the rebounding battle, which may be the decisive factor in their games – especially the deeper the Illini go in the Big Dance.

Games under 25 percent from the three-point line: four

Mar 8, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Ben Humrichous (3) reacts after taking a three point basket during the first half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Volatile teams are scary come March. And that’s exactly what high-volume three-point shooting teams often are. Take the 2024-25 Illini, for example. When it was their night, they could have beaten any team in the country. Instead, they got bounced in the Round of 32. But this year is different.

Although this Illinois team still loves to get ‘em up from deep, it is notably more consistent. Thus far, the Illini have shot under 25 percent from long range just four times (last year’s crew did that on nine occasions), and they haven’t finished under 20 percent once. A baseline level of consistency from long range speaks to an improved floor for this group.

Opponents’ free-throw rate: 20.6

Feb 10, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard John Blackwell (25) shoots during the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

(Free throw rate is the number of free-throw attempts divided by field-goal attempts.)

Essentially, all this number says is that Illinois rarely fouls, and when it does, opponents don’t get many freebies out of it. In fact, the Illini rank as the nation's No. 1 team in this metric, even after the free-throw fest Wisconsin enjoyed against them in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals in Chicago last Friday.

On the flip side, Illinois’ forced turnover percentage of 11.6 ranks dead last in the country – a direct result of the Illini’s less-than-active hands. But it’s a tradeoff Underwood has happily lived with all year – and should continue to accept in the tournament – as the approach keeps opponents from getting easy points while keeping his unit out of foul trouble.

Turnover percentage: 13.2

Speaking of turnover percentage, few protect the rock as effectively as Illinois (10th in the country). Lead guard Keaton Wagler is mature beyond his years, and the rest of the Illini tend to be sure-handed and sound decision-makers, as well.

Avoiding turnovers doesn’t just mean more shot attempts; it also reduces the number of fastbreak opportunities for opponents (live-ball turnovers often lead to high-percentage looks for opponents). Keeping this stat on the low side is a must in March.

Players averaging double digits: 5

Balance is the name of the game for Illinois’ offense. Off night for Kylan Boswell? Tomislav Ivisic steps up. David Mirkovic not feeling it? Hello, Andrej Stojakovic. Wagler goes cold? The season is probably over. (We're only half-kidding.)

The Illini have perhaps the deepest and most powerful arsenal of scorers in college basketball. Five players average double-digit points (the five mentioned above), with four of them at 13 points or more. Again, in March, it’s all about surviving the off nights. Fortunately, the Illini have a plethora of options to turn to when one player is struggling – yet another sign of Illinois having a higher floor than perceptions may suggest.