EA Sports' 'College Football 26' Simulation Predicts Illinois vs. Rutgers

Illinois football will be back at home in Memorial Stadium for Week 10, aiming to refocus and jockey for position after falling to 5-3 (2-3 Big Ten) in last week's loss at Washington. With playoff hopes effectively out of reach, the Illini now have a clear but more modest target: win out and secure a strong postseason bowl. A matchup against a scrappy Rutgers team (4-4, 1-4 Big Ten) is a manageable next step that should nevertheless not be taken for granted.

Reset. Refocus. Reload. 1-0 pic.twitter.com/2KPDnRf5Yq
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 27, 2025

Saturday’s game (11 a.m. CT, NBC) is a turning point. A win would keep Illinois firmly in the mix for a quality bowl invitation and underscore that the program is still one on the rise under coach Bret Bielema. But Rutgers won’t roll over – the Scarlet Knights bring physicality, a gritty rushing attack and the uphill toughness of a team fighting to salvage its season.

So again we fired up the Xbox for a Week 10 simulation. In our first full-season sim, Illinois handled Rutgers comfortably, but with the Illini playing a bit closer to the Scarlet Knights' level than anyone expected two months ago, we decided to run it back and see if the result holds in this new context.

Week 10 simulation: Illinois vs. Rutgers

First quarter

Oct 18, 2025; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (16) throws the ball during the first half against the Oregon Ducks at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Illini opened the game sluggishly, going three-and-out on their first possession before Rutgers seized control. The Scarlet Knights marched down the field against a shaky Illinois defense, capping the drive with a touchdown. Illinois punched back with a steady, methodical drive of its own, highlighted by several key runs and finished off by an Aidan Laughery touchdown to even the score.

But momentum swung right back to Rutgers, which returned the ensuing kickoff all the way for another score. The Illini answered with a promising drive that ultimately stalled out near midfield and forced a punt. As the first quarter wound down, Rutgers converted a long third down on the period's final play to keep its offense rolling.

End of first: Rutgers 14, Illinois 7

Second quarter

Oct 4, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini running back Ca'Lil Valentine (5) celebrates a touchdown during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

The Illinois defense came up clutch early in the second quarter, tightening up in the red zone and forcing Rutgers to settle for a field goal. Luke Altmyer then took command, orchestrating a sharp, balanced drive capped by a short touchdown pass to Hank Beatty that pulled the Illini within three. On the next play from scrimmage, cornerback Kaleb Patterson made a game-changing read, jumping a screen pass for an interception and setting up Illinois deep in Scarlet Knights territory. Moments later,Ca’Lil Valentine punched it in from close range to give Illinois its first lead of the day.

But after forcing a Rutgers three-and-out, the Illini muffed the ensuing punt, setting the Scarlet Knights up with prime field position. Rutgers cashed in immediately with a short touchdown run to reclaim the lead. Illinois followed with a quick three-and-out, and Rutgers took advantage again, carving up the defense on a methodical drive capped by another score to extend the margin. Enough time was left on the clock, though, for Altmyer to answer back before the half, scrambling into the end zone to close the gap to three.

End of second: Rutgers 31, Illinois 28

Third quarter

Oct 18, 2025; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Antwan Raymond (3) takes a hand off from quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (16) during the first half against the Oregon Ducks at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Both offenses sputtered through much of the third quarter, as the defenses tightened up to dictate the flow. Rutgers managed to piece together a drive into Illinois territory midway through the period but came up empty after missing a long field-goal attempt. The Illini offense couldn’t capitalize on the opportunity, stalling out again. Just when it looked like the quarter would end quietly, Justin Bowick provided a spark, taking a screen pass and bursting down the sideline for a 58-yard gain to ignite the home crowd. That big play set up a clutch David Olano field goal, tying the game as the quarter came to a close.

End of third: Illinois 31, Rutgers 31

Fourth quarter

Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini kicker David Olano (24) kicks a 41 yard field during the second half against the Southern California Trojans to win the game, 34-32 at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Rutgers opened the fourth quarter unable to find any offensive rhythm, and Illinois took advantage. Altmyer orchestrated a poised, methodical drive that chewed up more than eight minutes of clock, polishing it off with a precise touchdown pass to put the Illini back in front. But on the next possession, the Scarlet Knights answered back with a 75-yard touchdown, exploiting a busted coverage to knot the score back up.

With pressure mounting, Altmyer rose to the occasion. Showing the same poise that has defined his career, he led a composed, clock-draining drive deep into Rutgers territory as the final seconds ticked down. When the offense was held up just outside the red zone, it was Olano’s turn again. The junior kicker calmly drilled a 38-yard field goal to ice the game and secure Illinois’ sixth win of the season, officially punching their ticket to bowl eligibility.

Final score: Illinois 41, Rutgers 38

Illinois on SI take:

Although Rutgers is a respectable opponent, allowing 38 points to the Scarlet Knights would amount to a screaming red flag. Such a performance would only intensify the scrutiny surrounding defensive coordinator Aaron Henry’s future – a storyline that Bielema may soon have to confront head-on.

11/23/24: Illinois walks-off Rutgers. 🤯

Luke Altmyer and the anticipated Illinois offense will be on full display THIS FRIDAY. #B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/9F9SBDsBpE
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) August 25, 2025

Still, if this matchup comes down to the wire, Illinois fans can take comfort in knowing the ball will likely be in the right hands. Altmyer has proven his composure time and again, and given Olano’s reliability in clutch moments, the Illini would have every reason to feel confident about their chances.