History Suggests High-Win Season for Iowa in 2026

After spending a chunk of their 2025-26 run as legitimate College Football Playoff (CFP) contenders, the Iowa Hawkeyes' final result as a sub-10-win team inevitably left some fans disappointed. Floating in and out of competitive national rankings as big-game losses often cost them an ultimate spot, the black and gold found themselves in an outside-looking-in bowl against the Vanderbilt Commodores.

And, despite their failure to return to the B1G Championship sort of success that the program had seen two years prior, the Hawkeyes took their Southeastern Conference opponents to task in a 34-27 victory. The postseason win pulled the team's overall tally to 9-4, and they'd still manage to finish as a top 25 team in the country.

A 9-4 season is certainly good but, for a team - even under current head coach Kirk Ferentz - that has seen higher, in-conference success, the bar tends to sit a little higher. Yet, thankfully for any disgruntled Hawkeye fan, a likely path to reaching that higher level may lie right around the corner.

History Bound to Repeat

Over time, after playing in and winning either an Outback or ReliaQuest bowl game, Hawkeyes football consistently strings together a double-digit win season in the wake. In all three cases where these circumstances arose from 2004 to 2019, the same result has followed, with records of 10-2, 11-2, and 11-3, respectively.

Of course, all three of those campaigns came under coach Ferentz. After defeating the aforementioned Commodores in the latter bowl, history, as odd as it may seem, appears bound to repeat itself.

Hawkeye Football records following Outback/ReliaQuest Bowl wins🤔

2004 (10-2)
2009 (11-2)
2019 (10-3)
2026 (???)
— Stirtz SZN (@TheMcCollumEra) January 10, 2026

Much of Iowa's potential success on a more impactful level, like the one inherently suggested by a 10+ win season, will come down to its ability to handle B1G opponents. Not only are multiple most often ranked, but this season specifically, it held the nation's top two teams in the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers, respectively.

Dec 31, 2025; Tampa, FL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz greets Vanderbilt Commodores head coach Clark Lea after the ReliaQuest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Tackling Conference Competition

HC Ferentz, for all his positives, will once more have to overcome his inability to beat teams projected well above the Hawkeyes. If they've got a number next to their name, Iowa often struggles; it's been an unfortunate pattern plaguing an otherwise legendary coach's continued run.

Then again, what can stand against history? If patterns are in the mix, Iowa's tendency to follow up a certain bowl win - like the one they just nabbed - with even more successful seasons is impossible to ignore.

Though until the far-away-fall, the Hawkeye faithful will have to wait with crossed fingers.

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