Iowa Heavily Favored Over Minnesota Despite Same Record

Despite the Iowa Hawkeyes having the exact same record as the Minnesota Golden Gophers, Iowa enters as 8.5 point favorites. With a two-score cushion on Minnesota, head coach Kirk Ferentz knows the game still needs to be played on the field.

Heading into their matchup on October 25, ESPN Analytics currently gives Iowa a 78.6% chance to win. Knowing Iowa's latest win came over a depleted Penn State and Minnesota just knocked Nebraska out of the Top 25, this comes as quite a surprise.

Iowa's 8.5 Point Advantage

Big Ten spreads this weekend, per ESPN BET:

-Washington -4.5 vs Illinois

-Nebraska -6.5 vs Northwestern

-Rutgers -2.5 at Purdue

-Indiana -24.5 vs UCLA

-Iowa -8.5 vs Minnesota

-Oregon -34.5 vs Wisconsin

-Michigan -14.5 at Michigan State

(In case this wasn’t clear, these…
— Glenn Kinley (@glenn_kinley) October 20, 2025

For what it's worth, all but one of Iowa's win this season has been by 8.5+ points. That lone win just happened to be their most recent on October 18 against the Nittany Lions. 25-24 was the final at Kinnick Stadium as quarterback Mark Gronowski led the team to victory.

Iowa's wins this season have come by 27, 40, 10, 37, and 1 point. They've outscored their opponents 181-66 in their five wins, though the level of competition hasn't always been the highest.

Dominant wins over Albany and Rutgers are only going to get a team so far, and their 37-0 shutout of Wisconsin doesn't say much as the Badgers are clearly the worst team in the B1G. Seeing as Minnesota just defeated Nebraska, 24-6, it goes to show how little they think of the Cornhuskers.

Don't Sleep on Minnesota

Minnesota Footbal — Oct 17, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers linebacker Matt Kingsbury (49) and linebacker Emmanuel Karmo (2) pose for a photo after the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Other than the Penn State game, Iowa has only known how to win big or lose in heartbreaking fashion. Seeing as the Nittany Lions contest went down to the wire, it's hard to imagine their upcoming battle with the Golden Gophers not being as competitive.

Minnesota has won three of their last four, with their lone loss being to No. 1 Ohio State. Obviously, there's no shame in losing to the Buckeyes, Sure, their 42-3 loss was embarrassing, but OSU has showed time and time again why they are the nation's top team.

The Golden Gophers non-conference schedule wasn't daunting either. They slipped up against 5-2 California, but had a pair of wins over Buffalo and Northwestern State.

In B1G play, Minnesota has wins by 3, 7, and 18 points. On September 27, the Golden Gophers only beat Rutgers by 3 points. The week prior, Iowa had beaten them by 10.

The Hawkeyes may not have played Ohio State, but they lost by only five points to an Indiana team that is now the nation's second best team. Losing close matters, and that loss is one of the key reasons why Iowa is being favored so much over Minnesota.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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