ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Kansas vs Iowa State Basketball Matchup

No. 9 Kansas and No. 5 Iowa State are set to tip off this weekend in another Big 12 thriller. Two of the best teams in the conference will meet for the second time this season after the Jayhawks dominated the first matchup in an 84-63 blowout.

This time around will be much different, as the Cyclones will host the game at Hilton Coliseum, one of the best environments in the Big 12. KU head coach Bill Self has lost in that building three straight years by a combined 36 points.

Kansas has won its past eight games in a streak that began Jan. 13 against this very team in Allen Fieldhouse. Can the Jayhawks extend it to nine against the squad that started it all? ESPN's computer model doesn't appear to think so.

Kansas at Iowa State: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

The Matchup Predictor gives KU an extremely slim chance of coming out victorious Saturday afternoon. It gives Iowa State nearly a three-in-four probability of winning.

Jan 13, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Darryn Peterson (22) shoots against Iowa State Cyclones forward Blake Buchanan (23) during the second half at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Iowa State 73.2%, Kansas 26.8%.

Kansas On SI's Take

It makes sense that Iowa State is favored, but this number seems slightly exaggerated. The Cyclones opened as 5.5-point favorites, yet the computer model views them as overwhelming favorites.

As well as TJ Otzelberger's squad has played this season, it has won just five of its last eight games after starting 16-0. In its most recent outing, Iowa State went into Fort Worth and suffered a disappointing loss to TCU, dropping to 8-3 in conference play.

The Jayhawks, on the other hand, have looked nearly unstoppable in recent weeks. They just defeated No. 1 Arizona — granted, it was at home in the best environment in America, but it was still a feat no other team had accomplished this season, and they did it without their best player in Darryn Peterson.

Kansas has an opportunity to complete a rare season sweep over one of its more deep-rooted conference rivals. It is highly unlikely that the team is run out the gym like ISU was last month, given its recent winning streak.

The star freshman appears to be on track to return this weekend, which would give KU a significant boost in its starting five. If he is available, the Jayhawks likely deserve better odds from ESPN's computer model than they currently have.

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