Kansas vs Arizona: What's ESPN's Prediction For the Big 12 Regular Season Finale?

The ESPN analytics are (somewhat) confident in the Jayhawks ability to take down the Wildcats at home on Saturday afternoon.

Mar 3, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) defends against Kansas Jayhawks guard David Coit (8) during the first half at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

ESPN Predicts the Kansas vs Arizona Game

Sitting at 19-11 (10-9 Big 12), Kansas hasn’t quite had the year it was expected to have, and it also hasn’t protected its home floor in the way it usually does.

On Saturday afternoon though, when the Jayhawks welcome No. 24 Arizona (20-10, 14-5 Big 12) to Lawrence, they’ll get one more opportunity to defend Allen Fieldhouse and add a resume-building win heading into postseason play while they’re at it.

First half frames. pic.twitter.com/8NmP3HMtoK

— Kansas Men’s Basketball (@KUHoops) March 4, 2025

According to ESPN’s metrics, Kansas should be able to do just that, as the analytics give the Jayhawks a 59.8 percent chance of taking down the visitors. But while that’s the expectation, as previously mentioned, Bill Self’s squad has failed to meet expectations far too many times this season.

Notably, back in December, in a contest marred in controversy and still surely on the forefront of many Kansas’ fans mind, West Virginia came to visit and pulled off a 62-61 upset win in a game the Jayhawks were given a 85.2 percent chance of winning. 

More recently, then-No. 10 Texas Tech visited Allen Fieldhouse, and snagged just their second-ever program victory at the legendary venue as the Red Raiders snuck out with a 78-73 win.

And who was expected to win that contest?

Well, according to ESPN’s analytics, the Jayhawks had a 60.3 percent probability of successfully defending their home court. 

On the flip side, Arizona has gone on the road and upset ESPN’s odds twice. Back in January, the Wildcats took down then-No. 16 Cincinnati by a score of 72-67, despite the Bearcats being given a 56.8 percent chance of holding off the visitors.

More recently, it was a mid-February 74-67 victory at Baylor – a game in which the metrics favored the Bears. 

Nonetheless, while Arizona is certainly capable of pulling off the upset, and Kansas is uncharacteristically vulnerable at home this season, the Jayhawks walk into Saturday afternoon’s matchup with the upper-hand against the Wildcats.