Advanced analytics predict every Michigan football game in 2025

Every year, ESPN uses its Football Power Index to predict every single game on the college football calendar. The FPI "is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule."

The Michigan Wolverines are expected to be much improved in 2025, but how improved? Let's see what the advanced analytics say.

Week 1: Vs. New Mexico

97.5% chance of winning

The Wolverines are going to be massive favorites in Week 1 against New Mexico. As you can see, then FPI thinks Michigan gets by this game very easily.

Predicted record: 1-0

Week 2: at Oklahoma

51.8% chance of winning

This game is deemed as a toss-up by the advanced analytics, with Michigan have a little bit of an edge. This will be the first test for the Wolverines this season, and the first test of Bryce Underwood's young career.

Predicted record: 2-0

Week 3: Vs. Central Michigan

97% chance of winning

Once again, Michigan is a huge favorite. Either the Wolverines are coming off of a win at Oklahoma, or Michigan uses this as a get-right game after suffering a loss in Norman. But the advanced analytics say Michigan will be 3-0 heading into Nebraska.

Predicted record: 3-0

Week 4: At Nebraska

59% chance of winning

Once again, Michigan is a small favorite when it hits the road for the second time in four weeks. It's worth noting the Wolverines won't have head coach Sherrone Moore for this contest, who is serving the second game of his two-game suspension.

Predicted record: 4-0

Week 6: Vs. Wisconsin

76.9% chance of winning

Michigan is back at home after getting a bye week. The Badgers have one of the toughest schedules in college football, and Wisconsin will likely have one or two losses going into this game. Michigan looks to keep the momentum going.

Predicted record: 5-0

Week 7: At USC

34.7% chance of winning

The analytics say Michigan will suffer its first loss in Week 7. The Wolverines will head to LA to take on USC, and they aren't getting much of a chance. Will the Trojans be that much better than Michigan?

Predicted record: 5-1

Week 8: Vs Washington

78.2% chance of winning

Michigan rights the ship in Week 8 back in the Big House. The analytics have the Wolverines as pretty big favorites over Demond Williams and Washington.

Predicted record: 6-1

Week 9: At Michigan State

79.7% chance of winning

A rival game in East Lansing, but Michigan is once again, a big favorite. Aidan Chiles proved to be a turnover machine last season, and if that continues in 2025 -- Michigan should win big against Michigan State.

Predicted record: 7-1

Week 10: Vs. Purdue

94.6% chance of winning

Purdue is hoping Barry Odom can turn things around, but that won't happen until a couple of years down the line. As of now, the Boilermakers shouldn't be any match for Michigan.

Predicted record: 8-1

Week 12: At Northwestern

82.9% chance of winning

This game will be played at Wrigley Field and it will be a neat experience for Michigan fans. According to the analytics, Wolverine fans should see an easy Michigan win against Northwestern.

Predicted record: 9-1

Week 13: At Maryland

79% chance of winning

This game could be viewed as a trap game with Ohio State looming, but Michigan will be the more talented team in Week 13. Assuming the Wolverines don't go away from what's working, the Wolverines should be 10-1 heading into The Game.

Predicted record: 10-1

Week 14: Vs. Ohio State

36.9% chance of winning

Michigan has won the last four games against Ohio State, but even with playing the Buckeyes at home, the Wolverines don't have much of a chance, according to the analytics. The FPI has Ohio State ending its four-game losing streak against Michigan.

Predicted record: 10-2

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