Keys to a Michigan football win over rival Michigan State on Saturday

The Wolverines are the better team, but Michigan still has to go out and play a good game to win.
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After a dominant win against Washington this past weekend, Michigan hits the road against rival Michigan State for a primetime matchup -- the fourth one in a row between the two teams. The Wolverines are expected to win the game handily, as the spread shows, but anything could happen in this hated rivalry.

Here are keys to a Michigan win.

1. Do a better job on third downs

This is a must for Michigan, because the Wolverines should be able to move the ball against a very suspect Michigan State defense. The Spartans have the No. 17 defense in the Big Ten, only better than Rutgers. However, MSU can stay in the game if Michigan has another poor outing on third and fourth down conversions.

Michigan is 12th in the Big Ten, converting just over 40% of its third-down tries. Even worse, Michigan goes for a fair amount of 4th down tries, but the Wolverines are just 1-of-9 when they do that. If the Michigan O-line can win up front, the Wolverines should be able to convert when needed. But as we've seen most of the season, it's something Michigan has struggled with.

It's not known if Justice Haynes will be back for this game, but if he has to miss another game, Michigan is in good hands with Jordan Marshall. In fact, Marshall is great at gaining an extra yard or two -- if the line allows him to.

2. Don't lose sight of Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly

Fans can be hard on the Michigan passing attack, deservingly so at times, with how many drops the Wolverines have. But MSU is just barely better than Michigan in terms of passing yards per game. Michigan is No. 13 in the Big Ten, averaging 205 yards per game. MSU is No. 12, averaging 213 yards per game.

For the Spartans, it all starts with their top two playmakers, Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly. The duo ranks No. 15 and No. 16 in the Big. Kelly averages 58 yards and Marsh is at 57.7 yards per game. While Kelly might have some more yards, Marsh is the go-to WR on the team.

QB Aidan Chiles will be looking Marsh's way plenty and it could be a USC-esque game with Makai Lemon. Jyaire Hill will likely be covering Marsh for most of the game, and slowing down the Spartans' playmaker will be key.

3. Play Michigan's game, don't give in to extracurriculars

Michigan is the better team entering this game -- record and statistically -- and if the Wolverines just play their game, they should come out ahead. Bryce Underwood and the Michigan offense have been playing better, and the Wolverines' defense was as good as we've seen from them last weekend.

But the thing with this rivalry game -- you never know what's going to happen. It feels like every year there is some sort of skirmish or antics that take over the game and that's the talking point, not the game itself. Head coach Sherrone Moore touched on Michigan not giving in to the extracurriculars this weekend.

"The biggest thing is that you’re not going to win the game talking. You’re not going to win the game with all the extra stuff. So conscious effort on just attacking what we need to attack to win the football game. The fans, the crowd, their players talking, people talk, that doesn’t matter. So we have to worry about executing and put in the work to go win the game. That’s it. Don’t worry about all the other stuff that can harp you from — exerting energy on things you don’t need to exert on."

Michigan needs to let its play do the talking and not get too emotional in this one.

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Trent Knoop
TRENT KNOOP

Trent began writing and covering Michigan athletics back in 2020. He became a credentialed member of the media in 2021. Trent began writing with Sports Illustrated in 2023 and became the Managing Editor for Michigan Wolverines On SI during the 2025 football season. Trent also serves as the Publisher of Baylor Bears on SI. His other bylines have appeared on Maryland on SI, Wisconsin on SI, and across the USA TODAY Sports network. Trent’s love of sports and being able to tell stories to fans is what made him get into writing.

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