Ohio State vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds for Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinal

The No. 3 Michigan Wolverines begin their run in the Big Ten Tournament in the quarterfinals against the Ohio State Buckeyes, who are coming off a 72-69 win over the Iowa Hawkeyes on Thursday.

Michigan took care of business against the Buckeyes earlier this season, winning by 12 points at home and 21 on the road. That’s led to oddsmakers setting the Wolverines as 13.5-point favorites to advance to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals.

The Buckeyes closed out the regular season strong with wins over Penn State, Indiana and Purdue before Wednesday’s win. They appear to have a strong enough resume to be in the field for the NCAA Tournament, but a win over Michigan on Friday would all but cement that status.

After losing to Duke in February, the Wolverines rattled off four wins in a row, though only one – against Illinois – came by 14 or more points. Can Yaxel Lendeborg and company pick up a blowout win on Friday as they aim to lock up a No. 1 seed this March?

Here’s a look at the betting odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Big Ten rivalry matchup.

Ohio State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Ohio State +13.5 (-110)
Michigan -13.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Ohio State: +750
Michigan: -1200

Total

154.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Ohio State vs. Michigan How to Watch

Date: Friday, March 13
Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
Venue: United Center
How to Watch (TV): BTN
Ohio State record: 21-11
Michigan record: 29-2

Ohio State vs. Michigan Key Player to Watch

Elliott Cadeau, Guard, Michigan

Every single March, there is a stress on the importance of guard play for the top teams in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines have a solid point guard in Elliott Cadeau – a UNC transfer – who leads the team in assists per game (5.5) this season.

Cadeau is also chipping in 9.9 points while shooting 42.5 percent from the field and 37.8 percent from 3. He struggled a bit against the Buckeyes earlier this season scoring just four points per game while shooting 37.5 percent from the field in their two meetings.

With so many great guards across the college basketball landscape, Cadeau is going to be tested this March.

Ohio State vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

I don’t love laying this many points in a rivalry matchup, especially since this is the third time these teams are playing this season.

Instead, I’m looking to the UNDER on Friday, as the Wolverines have the No. 2 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country, per KenPom.

Michigan has held Ohio State’s offense (No. 18 in adjusted offensive efficiency) to just 62 and 61 points, combining for 136 and 143 points in their two meetings. Both games fell well short of Friday’s total, and I’m expecting another strong showing from the Michigan defense.

The Wolverines are No. 1 in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage, No. 3 in opponent 2-point percentage and No. 7 in opponent 3-point percentage. Ohio State averages over 80 points per game this season, yet it hasn’t even cracked 65 against the Wolverines.

The Buckeyes rank just 248th in the country in adjusted tempo, so they’re relying on their elite shooting (16th in effective field goal percentage) to put up big offensive numbers, not a frenetic pace of play.

If this game slows down in the half court, that’s great news for the Michigan defense, which is allowing just 69.1 points per game this season. I think this total is a little too high after these teams played two games south of 150 combined points in the regular season.

Pick: UNDER 154.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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