The Seat is Getting Hotter and Hotter for MSU's Jonathan Smith
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Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith might be in a phase where he's just trying to keep his job each week.
A larger-than-usual number of college football coaches have been getting fired mid-season this year, and the temperature on Smith's seat has risen exponentially since the Spartans lost 38-13 to 1-4 UCLA at home during homecoming.
Two different Big Ten coaches have been fired so far this season: the Bruins' DeShaun Foster and Penn State's James Franklin.
That is part of why the loss to the Bruins became so humiliating for Michigan State. Not only did UCLA look like the more prepared, well-coached, and overall better team, it did it all despite an 0-4 start (Foster was let go after 0-3) and without a permanent head coach, offensive coordinator, or defensive coordinator.
Things can change drastically week-to-week in college sports --- look at UCLA --- but if this Spartan team is getting waxed by those Bruins at home... what's going to happen when they go play third-ranked Indiana and Curt Cignetti on the road? The image isn't pretty.
Why Indiana Matters So Much
Outside of MSU's football building, there is zero expectation for the Spartans to win Saturday's game. Besides punter (thanks, Ryan Eckley), there isn't a spot on the field where Michigan State looks better.
That's exactly why this is the perfect game to see if this coaching staff and team have any real shot left. The sentiment outside of where it truly matters could not be more pessimistic. It's up to Smith and everyone else around the program to decide if they'd like to listen to it or not.
Either way, a coach should not need to give his players any extra motivation to go play the No. 3 team in the nation on the road. Then again, players should get plenty of motivation for getting to play their first home game in nearly a month on homecoming. But still, these are the opportunities that can turn around programs (and careers) in the rare instance that the underdog wins.
If the Spartans go into Bloomington and play like they know and believe what the outside world is saying about them and the Hoosiers, there really would not be much to say anymore. Smith can't prevent a player from going on Twitter/X and look at all the posts out there from fans about MSU football, but it's still his responsibility as a head coach to prevent that from having any influence.
Some grace should be given. Michigan State certainly showed great effort and fight against USC and Nebraska, but "yay, we only lost by 11" does not go very far. That is especially so when the Spartans were in a position to win in Lincoln before letting it slip away and then showing little to no fight against UCLA.
The "moral victory" route might be Smith's most likely route against Indiana. It would be unfair to fire a coach solely for losing to a team of that caliber. If MSU plays just a competitive game, that should be enough to buy him some more time. If IU blows the Spartans out, things will get very, very interesting, especially with who comes after that.
Michigan Looming
Would Michigan State ever dare to make a coaching change just before playing Michigan, the most important game on the schedule every year? Some teams that go through a coaching change (UCLA, again) can rally together when that happens and play better after the fact.
Let's assume Smith gets to that opportunity, though. Even though the Wolverines are not amazing this year, it's the type of rivalry where if Smith beats them, so much would be forgiven, and he'd almost certainly be granted another season. Firing a coach with the Paul Bunyan Trophy residing in East Lansing would be pretty odd.
MSU could've, and maybe should've, won the rivalry matchup last year. The Spartans outgained Michigan by 87 yards and held the ball for 37 minutes, but still lost, 24-17.
That's the game where the first seed of doubt was planted. Smith and his much newer team did not seem to grasp the stakes as much as Michigan did. It's kind of tough to blame Smith for that, since we had been on the West Coast for his entire career before coming to MSU, but a knowledge of this rivalry is a part of the overall job.
The potential timing of a mid-season Smith firing would also be really interesting. If MSU fires Smith after a loss to UM, that gives the Wolverines the satisfaction of knowing that they are the ones who ultimately set everything in motion, but it can also send a message in East Lansing about how valuable that game is.
Perhaps it would be better to give Smith a shot against Minnesota, too. That's one of the more winnable games left on the schedule. In addition, MSU has a bye week after that, which is often a better time to make these types of mid-season moves, since it gives the interim staff and the players more time to adjust.
Things are already dicey in East Lansing. By the looks of the upcoming schedule, it appears likely that things could be getting worse before they get better.
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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