What will it take for Mississippi State to Make NCAA Tournament?

The Bulldogs find themselves outside of most field of 64 projections, but their path to the tournament is surprisingly realistic.

Mississippi State University baseball player Ross Highfill (22) waits to take home during the Governor’s Cup played against the University of Mississippi at Trustmark Park on April 22, 2025, in Pearl, Miss. | Sarah Warnock/Special to Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mississippi State is finding itself on the wrong side of most NCAA Baseball Tournament projections.

Both D1Baseball and Baseball America have the Bulldogs as one of their first four teams to be outside the field of 64. Both publications also had Florida as one of their last four teams in, making the sting of the series loss to the Gators more painful.

After a crushing, 10-inning loss to its biggest rival Tuesday night, there aren’t too many rays of sunshine breaking through the doom-and-gloom cloudy skies.

But all hope is not lost. Mississippi State can still make the NCAA Tournament and once you’re in, anything can happen. There are three realistic scenarios that could play out.

Here are those scenarios that would see Mississippi State get into the field of 64, starting with the least realistic and ending the most realistic path:

Win Out

The Bulldogs’ remaining schedule isn’t as tough as other schools (they end the season against Missouri), but even with just two SEC series left against ranked teams, the chances of Mississippi State going 14-0 to end the season are as close to zero as you can get. But if it were to happen, the Bulldogs would easily make the tournament, regardless of what happens in the SEC tournament. Speaking of which…

Win the SEC Tournament

Whoever wins the SEC Championship automatically earns a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs would likely need to win five-straight games, but crazier things have happened.

Finish 10-4

Here’s the real path. Mississippi State has 14 games left, but only six of those games are against ranked teams (No. 11 Auburn and No. 23 Ole Miss). The other games are midweek matches against Memphis and North Alabama and SEC series against Kentucky and Missouri. That’s the biggest stroke of luck for the Bulldogs. They get to end the season against a Missouri team that is winless in SEC play.

In order to get to 10-4, and 14 SEC wins, the Bulldogs have to win two of their next three SEC series (Auburn, Ole Miss and Kentucky). Doesn’t matter which two, they just need to go 5-4. They also need to win the two midweek games and end the seasons with a series sweep of Missouri.

That’s it. Sure, the Bulldogs would still be a bubble team and how others bubble teams finish the season will play a role in all this (like Florida stumbling). A win or two in the SEC tournament would help solidify the Bulldogs’ resume, too.

But if you’re looking for a realistic, no-super-crazy-chaos-upsets path for the Bulldogs to make the Field of 64, this is the one.