Three reasons Wake Forest can win the Duke’s Mayo Bowl

When strength meets strength in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, Wake Forest’s defense may tip the balance against Mississippi State.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons defensive lineman Mateen Ibirogba (99) tackles Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) during the first quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Mississippi State and Wake Forest arrive at the Duke’s Mayo Bowl with contrasting strengths and familiar postseason questions.

The Bulldogs bring an explosive offense capable of scoring in a hurry, while the Demon Deacons counter with a defense built to disrupt rhythm and dictate tempo. Bowl games often come down to which team can impose its identity when it matters most.

ICYMI: Three reasons Mississippi State fans should be optimistic about Duke’s Mayo Bowl

Here are three reasons Wake Forest could flip the script and send Mississippi State home disappointed.

Explosive plays

A hallmark of Mississippi State’s offense the past two seasons has been its explosive plays. Especially this season with speedy receivers Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans III scoring multiple touchdowns of 50 yards or more.

Wake Forest has a similar big play potential. Quarterback Robby Ashford and Carlos Hernandez have connected on three touchdown passes of 79 yards or more.

If the threat of Thompson and Evans scoring long touchdowns is a reason why Mississippi State will win, then the Ashford to Hernandez connection is a reason why Wake Forest will win.

Demon Deacons can rush the passer

Wake Forest isn’t a great pass rushing team. It averaged 2.08 sacks per game this season, which ranks 10th in the ACC and 62nd in FBS. They’re leader in sacks is Langston Hardy with 11 and Nuer Gatkuoth is next with six sacks.

But Mississippi State hasn’t been great at protecting its quarterbacks this season. The Bulldogs are giving up 3.33 sacks per game, which ranks 128th in the nation but only 14th in the SEC (only Auburn and South Carolina were worse).

Teams that weren’t great at pass rushing this season were able to find their groove against Mississippi State. For example, Georgia had only eight total sacks before coming to Starkville and recorded four in that game.

Maybe Kamario Taylor is able to avoid more sacks than Blake Shapen was. But if Taylor’s running away from pass rushers then he can’t be as efficient and successful as he could be.

Wake Forest wins strength vs. strength

A general rule I apply to bowl games, playoff games, championship games, etc. is that if two teams will pit their best unit against one another, the defense gets the favor.

Defense wins championships is an overused cliché, but it’s true. Football championships, more often than not, are won by the team with a better defense.

For the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, Mississippi State’s strength is its offense. For Wake Forest, it’s the defense.

Based on that and my rule, Wake Forest having its defense be its best unit is a reason why it’ll win Friday’s game.

Of course, rule’s are meant to be broken and I’ve been wrong once or twice before.